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crypto","resolveAt":1793264859253,"commentsAt":null,"committedAt":1793257662527},{"p":0.05,"hn":"https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=50279304","id":"50279304","gen":125,"url":"https://news.err.ee/1610179027/passengers-injured-after-collision-between-bus-and-delivery-robot-in-tallinn","why":"Low points and comments at 112 minutes with no recent growth, unlikely to reach 100 points.","hash":"10a3b715e534ab6b2bdaf772bd873505cbcc7f825f1b9a736f8f4b814045402a","type":"hn100","field":"tech","title":"Passengers injured after collision between bus and delivery robot in Tallinn","domain":"news.err.ee","scoreAt":7,"closesAt":1793225259116,"postedAt":1793214889000,"typeName":"Hacker News, 100 points","resolveAt":1793301289000,"commentsAt":4,"committedAt":1793221659116},{"p":0.65,"hn":"https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=50279308","id":"50279308","gen":125,"url":"https://www.uchicagomedicine.org/forefront/cancer-articles/rising-rates-of-colorectal-cancer","why":"Strong momentum with 39 points and 58 comments at 52 minutes indicates high engagement and positive momentum.","hash":"6892c78b90bcdf909d1fbe4689bb0b249110aa5787f1b87b5e9faeeb2f2a3ffc","type":"hn100","field":"tech","title":"Rising rates of colorectal cancer found in nearly all age groups","domain":"uchicagomedicine.org","scoreAt":39,"closesAt":1793221659829,"postedAt":1793214907000,"typeName":"Hacker News, 100 points","resolveAt":1793301307000,"commentsAt":58,"committedAt":1793218059829},{"p":0.03,"hn":"https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=50279386","id":"50279386","gen":125,"url":"https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mecca_Defence_Alliance","why":"Old story with low points and no comments, no recent growth.","hash":"08c5cdd09cce5f38fbd35a85d5e38557f81d55dba33ea1b0dcb74c4e8c4bd101","type":"hn100","field":"tech","title":"Mecca Defence Alliance","domain":"en.wikipedia.org","scoreAt":10,"closesAt":1793228859661,"postedAt":1793215236000,"typeName":"Hacker News, 100 points","resolveAt":1793301636000,"commentsAt":0,"committedAt":1793225259661},{"p":0.02,"hn":"https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=50279722","id":"50279722","gen":125,"url":"https://thenewstack.io/github-7-4b-commits-september/","why":"Low points and no comments at 86 minutes, with no momentum to suggest growth.","hash":"1e705d39d99ce2a11331de7128e70311ae5b4d240cadecc4385e8a9b90cda1d8","type":"hn100","field":"tech","title":"GitHub saw 7.4B commits in Sep., adding 4M CPU cores+160 PB storage to keep up","domain":"thenewstack.io","scoreAt":5,"closesAt":1793225259186,"postedAt":1793216473000,"typeName":"Hacker News, 100 points","resolveAt":1793302873000,"commentsAt":0,"committedAt":1793221659186},{"p":0.02,"hn":"https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=50279906","id":"50279906","gen":125,"url":"https://paagman.dev/how-fast-can-you-patch-ruby/","why":"Low points and no comments at 75 minutes, indicating low interest and momentum.","hash":"9dcdbd868eb810fd79db2550f2120da196fc7175a4652365e969c19ad40d8209","type":"hn100","field":"tech","title":"How fast can you actually patch Ruby?","domain":"paagman.dev","scoreAt":5,"closesAt":1793225259173,"postedAt":1793217108000,"typeName":"Hacker News, 100 points","resolveAt":1793303508000,"commentsAt":0,"committedAt":1793221659173},{"p":0.02,"hn":"https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=50280018","id":"50280018","gen":125,"url":"https://guille.site/posts/ios27-bugs/","why":"Minimal points and no comments at 68 minutes, showing no sign of momentum.","hash":"c7c62e84c46f3f572ced36f179eb280bf0468b8ba4763de6e013fd71e6f07eb4","type":"hn100","field":"tech","title":"Brokenness in iOS 27.x and \"Bug Blindness\"","domain":"guille.site","scoreAt":5,"closesAt":1793225259158,"postedAt":1793217524000,"typeName":"Hacker News, 100 points","resolveAt":1793303924000,"commentsAt":0,"committedAt":1793221659158},{"p":0.47,"hn":null,"id":"btc_day:2026-10-28T20","gen":114,"url":"https://exchange.coinbase.com/trade/BTC-USD","why":"Base rate 47.4%, price slightly down -0.02% since reference, 7-day trend negative -3.48%, typical daily move 1.43%, so no strong momentum, probability near base rate.","hash":"73fbeaf8f12abed24b68d55d59ace74d02a05eed41a1689e8116c97562e5cbbc","type":"btc_day","field":"markets","title":"Will Bitcoin trade above $81,502.09 on Coinbase at 20:00 UTC on Oct 29?","domain":null,"scoreAt":null,"closesAt":1793218959982,"postedAt":null,"typeName":"Bitcoin, 24 hours","resolveAt":1793304300000,"commentsAt":null,"committedAt":1793218065941},{"p":0.18,"hn":"https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=50280178","id":"50280178","gen":125,"url":"https://arstechnica.com/ai/2026/10/google-ai-gets-cagey-when-asked-who-won-the-2020-elections/","why":"Moderate points and comments but below momentum threshold for strong growth at 57 minutes.","hash":"df93240181c5bcd8b93940b9ba07c37f04a3b1088b59497fbed159fc9e21d4c7","type":"hn100","field":"tech","title":"Google AI gets cagey when asked who won the 2020 elections","domain":"arstechnica.com","scoreAt":12,"closesAt":1793225259102,"postedAt":1793218216000,"typeName":"Hacker News, 100 points","resolveAt":1793304616000,"commentsAt":9,"committedAt":1793221659102},{"p":0.18,"hn":null,"id":"hn300:50280178","gen":125,"url":"https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=50280178","why":"Lower front page rank (20), moderate points (70) and comments (39) at 117 minutes with limited momentum reduce likelihood of reaching 300 points.","hash":"8d435b15b4551b2849b60022daa7050a4508e9b3fc652621f125bef1df6500b6","type":"hn300","field":"tech","title":"Will \"Google AI gets cagey when asked who won the 2020 elections\" reach 300 points on Hacker News?","domain":null,"scoreAt":null,"closesAt":1793228859697,"postedAt":null,"typeName":"Hacker News, 300 points","resolveAt":1793304616000,"commentsAt":null,"committedAt":1793225263976},{"p":0.65,"hn":"https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=50280197","id":"50280197","gen":125,"url":"https://s206.q4cdn.com/479360582/files/doc_financials/2026/q3/2026q3-alphabet-earnings-release.pdf","why":"Strong early momentum with 58 points and 35 comments at 55 minutes, indicating likely virality.","hash":"2e362c5553092300b59e380164ccd486cbe94b7121bff81bcc30a70f5296a6a5","type":"hn100","field":"tech","title":"Alphabet Announces Third Quarter 2026 Results [pdf]","domain":"s206.q4cdn.com","scoreAt":58,"closesAt":1793225259087,"postedAt":1793218315000,"typeName":"Hacker News, 100 points","resolveAt":1793304715000,"commentsAt":35,"committedAt":1793221659087},{"p":0.02,"hn":"https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=50280261","id":"50280261","gen":125,"url":"https://www.microsoft.com/en-us/investor/earnings/fy-2027-q1/press-release-webcast","why":"Very low engagement on a corporate earnings post after nearly three hours suggests minimal chance of virality.","hash":"bb2a7c945a1c34657f5056a7fb19faf14b1d83626a5e46998881799be93db0d3","type":"hn100","field":"tech","title":"Microsoft Announces FY27 Q1 Results","domain":"microsoft.com","scoreAt":5,"closesAt":1793232460057,"postedAt":1793218570000,"typeName":"Hacker News, 100 points","resolveAt":1793304970000,"commentsAt":0,"committedAt":1793228860057},{"p":0.03,"hn":"https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=50280397","id":"50280397","gen":125,"url":"https://www.wsj.com/tech/ai/alphabet-googl-q3-earnings-report-2026-stock-fa41392d","why":"Low points and no comments at 100 minutes, no momentum or engagement.","hash":"51f5c6931e0147b436791b7041123897cef7ff15b1658cf727c8814cb3e20fa8","type":"hn100","field":"tech","title":"The world's largest ad company had a bad quarter selling ads","domain":"wsj.com","scoreAt":6,"closesAt":1793228859685,"postedAt":1793219205000,"typeName":"Hacker News, 100 points","resolveAt":1793305605000,"commentsAt":0,"committedAt":1793225259685},{"p":0.04,"hn":"https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=50280650","id":"50280650","gen":125,"url":"https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=50280650","why":"Low points and no comments at 81 minutes, no momentum.","hash":"7eaf5b2392f28159349e4eda340d913a091b1faeddb59015f7b5dcdb16b9f73f","type":"hn100","field":"tech","title":"Show HN: I built a tool that finds reliability bugs in your code","domain":null,"scoreAt":6,"closesAt":1793228859673,"postedAt":1793220351000,"typeName":"Hacker News, 100 points","resolveAt":1793306751000,"commentsAt":0,"committedAt":1793225259673},{"p":0.05,"hn":"https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=50280662","id":"50280662","gen":125,"url":"https://www.reuters.com/legal/government/leak-website-releases-data-tens-thousands-dhs-employees-2026-10-28/","why":"Very low points and no comments at 80 minutes, no momentum.","hash":"2899a93352ca6171c0b749977d2d34b6165b2e702440b48c22f1d9764d391693","type":"hn100","field":"tech","title":"Leak website releases data on DHS employees","domain":"reuters.com","scoreAt":11,"closesAt":1793228859650,"postedAt":1793220412000,"typeName":"Hacker News, 100 points","resolveAt":1793306812000,"commentsAt":0,"committedAt":1793225259650},{"p":0.18,"hn":null,"id":"hn300:50280662","gen":125,"url":"https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=50280662","why":"Despite 78 points, the story is old (321 minutes) with low front page rank (29) and limited recent growth, reducing chances to reach 300.","hash":"0dd9808af3288aa875b21c9f18736c7f6754a638a7d86f818d6febf4ed5ea346","type":"hn300","field":"tech","title":"Will \"Leak website releases data on DHS employees\" reach 300 points on Hacker News?","domain":null,"scoreAt":null,"closesAt":1793243260264,"postedAt":null,"typeName":"Hacker News, 300 points","resolveAt":1793306812000,"commentsAt":null,"committedAt":1793239665419},{"p":0.05,"hn":"https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=50280691","id":"50280691","gen":125,"url":"https://www.techdirt.com/2026/10/28/latest-drop-by-distributed-denial-of-secrets-ddos-contains-contact-info-for-40000-dhs-employees/","why":"Very low points and no comments at 78 minutes, unlikely to reach 100 points.","hash":"c1655d2934c4388e61c822006aa5e6041480a3beb774dc67dd1a616071a7c0ce","type":"hn100","field":"tech","title":"Latest Drop by DDoS Contains Contact Info for 40k DHS Employees","domain":"techdirt.com","scoreAt":11,"closesAt":1793228859639,"postedAt":1793220531000,"typeName":"Hacker News, 100 points","resolveAt":1793306931000,"commentsAt":0,"committedAt":1793225259639},{"p":0.1,"hn":"https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=50280719","id":"50280719","gen":125,"url":"https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=50280719","why":"Low points and comments with older age and no momentum suggest below base rate likelihood.","hash":"7031e4da5d17b51d2f80be0574c21a52ec869cb44fbf4603446aec3990ce41e0","type":"hn100","field":"tech","title":"Ask HN: Why is pagination gone on \"Ask HN\", and showing only 19 items?","domain":null,"scoreAt":5,"closesAt":1793232460015,"postedAt":1793220690000,"typeName":"Hacker News, 100 points","resolveAt":1793307090000,"commentsAt":3,"committedAt":1793228860015},{"p":0.15,"hn":"https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=50280722","id":"50280722","gen":125,"url":"https://v12.sh/blog/the-case-of-the-9bit-aes-key","why":"Low points and comments at 75 minutes with no strong momentum, below threshold.","hash":"c83cb9f514c875ad8c90dd82b3e87f2a8cfc4260c283133fc26864232e3e8870","type":"hn100","field":"tech","title":"The case of the 9 bit AES key","domain":"v12.sh","scoreAt":21,"closesAt":1793228859626,"postedAt":1793220704000,"typeName":"Hacker News, 100 points","resolveAt":1793307104000,"commentsAt":4,"committedAt":1793225259626},{"p":0.55,"hn":null,"id":"hn300:50280722","gen":125,"url":"https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=50280722","why":"The story has strong momentum with 62 points and 31 comments at 196 minutes, front page rank 7 supports moderate boost, indicating likely to reach 300 points.","hash":"8b4e1586facf359d51d53e6ad19cb878a52e34568f0261f963851222d5e7c958","type":"hn300","field":"tech","title":"Will \"The case of the 9 bit AES key\" reach 300 points on Hacker News?","domain":null,"scoreAt":null,"closesAt":1793236059304,"postedAt":null,"typeName":"Hacker News, 300 points","resolveAt":1793307104000,"commentsAt":null,"committedAt":1793232464439},{"p":0.95,"hn":"https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=50280864","id":"50280864","gen":125,"url":"https://www.wired.com/story/massive-leak-exposes-41000-homeland-security-workers-including-undercover-ice-agents/","why":"Already has 114 points and strong comments at 64 minutes, well above threshold with positive momentum.","hash":"eb753488ea34c98aaa697d33f4e9bfe6d7017d2bb429005cee80d297bc57448f","type":"hn100","field":"tech","title":"Leak Exposes 41,000 Homeland Security Workers–Including Undercover ICE Agents","domain":"wired.com","scoreAt":114,"closesAt":1793228859598,"postedAt":1793221404000,"typeName":"Hacker News, 100 points","resolveAt":1793307804000,"commentsAt":33,"committedAt":1793225259598},{"p":0.41,"hn":null,"id":"hn300:50280864","gen":125,"url":"https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=50280864","why":"Strong early points (114) and comments (33) with front page rank 7 and positive momentum suggest a moderate chance to reach 300 points.","hash":"aea0b05f260dc7f458310c45070dd0a2af10effe1cf686d85aa76c15650678fd","type":"hn300","field":"tech","title":"Will \"Leak Exposes 41,000 Homeland Security Workers–Including Undercover ICE Agents\" reach 300 points on Hacker News?","domain":null,"scoreAt":null,"closesAt":1793228859697,"postedAt":null,"typeName":"Hacker News, 300 points","resolveAt":1793307804000,"commentsAt":null,"committedAt":1793225263964},{"p":0.48,"hn":null,"id":"btc_day:2026-10-28T21","gen":114,"url":"https://exchange.coinbase.com/trade/BTC-USD","why":"Base rate is 47.5%, price is slightly above reference by 0.056%, typical daily move is 1.43%, 24h momentum is positive but 7d trend is negative, so no consistent momentum; threshol","hash":"09e21d2a136c1131a0113bc6fa37108dcd09ed6d5b5afe5429feb27edc605b33","type":"btc_day","field":"markets","title":"Will Bitcoin trade above $81,259.82 on Coinbase at 21:00 UTC on Oct 29?","domain":null,"scoreAt":null,"closesAt":1793222559198,"postedAt":null,"typeName":"Bitcoin, 24 hours","resolveAt":1793307900000,"commentsAt":null,"committedAt":1793221663485},{"p":0.06,"hn":"https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=50280966","id":"50280966","gen":125,"url":"https://github.com/skorotkiewicz/lfm3-chat","why":"Low points and minimal comments on a Show HN project after nearly two hours indicate low probability.","hash":"a78b6f0406bd3dc01a41a188af599851096981fe6e5b29d642619df31d28ccf4","type":"hn100","field":"tech","title":"Show HN: LFM3 Video Chat","domain":"github.com","scoreAt":5,"closesAt":1793232460045,"postedAt":1793221950000,"typeName":"Hacker News, 100 points","resolveAt":1793308350000,"commentsAt":1,"committedAt":1793228860045},{"p":0.05,"hn":"https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=50280974","id":"50280974","gen":125,"url":"https://furbo.org/2026/10/28/a-health-update/","why":"Low points and no comments after nearly two hours indicate low momentum and unlikely to reach 100 points.","hash":"8f61d2c7093e249a2616ad473da128bf72c2b0c73bdaa29d1c3191e28308fd0e","type":"hn100","field":"tech","title":"A Health Update","domain":"furbo.org","scoreAt":8,"closesAt":1793232459956,"postedAt":1793222001000,"typeName":"Hacker News, 100 points","resolveAt":1793308401000,"commentsAt":0,"committedAt":1793228859956},{"p":0.45,"hn":null,"id":"hn300:50280974","gen":125,"url":"https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=50280974","why":"Strong points (83) and front page rank 6 with moderate comments but story age (234 min) suggests momentum slowing, lowering chance to reach 300.","hash":"ea06e9f9f622b3c4ff3fad6573343324d9c399365876145a4e3f3980a3796f08","type":"hn300","field":"tech","title":"Will \"A Health Update\" reach 300 points on Hacker News?","domain":null,"scoreAt":null,"closesAt":1793239659619,"postedAt":null,"typeName":"Hacker News, 300 points","resolveAt":1793308401000,"commentsAt":null,"committedAt":1793236064499},{"p":0.53,"hn":null,"id":"kalshi_btc:KXBTCD-26OCT2917-T81499.99","gen":114,"url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxbtcd","why":"Base rate 45.2%, threshold 0.017% above spot, well within 1 expected move (1.31%), positive 24h momentum 1.01%, so slight upward adjustment above base rate with fresh spot.","hash":"68830a38c2c1f0b5742ed097e1623c13b6e3982f3659ef0fe3ac7582373bade5","type":"kalshi_btc","field":"markets","title":"Will Bitcoin be at or above $81,500 at 5pm ET on Oct 29?","domain":null,"scoreAt":null,"closesAt":1793218959982,"postedAt":null,"typeName":"Bitcoin at 5pm ET","resolveAt":1793308500000,"commentsAt":null,"committedAt":1793218065907},{"p":0.6,"hn":null,"id":"kalshi_eth:KXETHD-26OCT2917-T2389.99","gen":114,"url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxethd","why":"Base rate 44.4%, threshold 0.54% above spot, about 0.32 expected moves away (threshold_vs_spot_pct / expected_move_to_fix_pct), positive 24h momentum 1.54%, so moderate upward adju","hash":"e480b870db306deeb84eda69ebb92224d0f755488acfe5c91394c94f5dc3ccb2","type":"kalshi_eth","field":"markets","title":"Will Ether be at or above $2,390 at 5pm ET on Oct 29?","domain":null,"scoreAt":null,"closesAt":1793218959982,"postedAt":null,"typeName":"Ether at 5pm ET","resolveAt":1793308500000,"commentsAt":null,"committedAt":1793218065924},{"p":0.57,"hn":null,"id":"kalshi_btc:KXBTCD-26OCT2917-T81249.99","gen":114,"url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxbtcd","why":"Base rate is 45.2%, threshold is slightly below spot by 0.068%, expected move to fix is 1.29%, so threshold lies well within expected move; 24h momentum is modestly positive at 0.6","hash":"fc32348a1e772a8b421f870a714042b3f2384c64e3855f68ba28c6a92dd949bd","type":"kalshi_btc","field":"markets","title":"Will Bitcoin be at or above $81,250 at 5pm ET on Oct 29?","domain":null,"scoreAt":null,"closesAt":1793222559198,"postedAt":null,"typeName":"Bitcoin at 5pm ET","resolveAt":1793308500000,"commentsAt":null,"committedAt":1793221663454},{"p":0.6,"hn":null,"id":"kalshi_eth:KXETHD-26OCT2917-T2349.99","gen":114,"url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxethd","why":"Base rate is 44.4%, threshold is 0.438% below spot, expected move to fix is 1.65%, so threshold lies well within expected move; 24h momentum is positive at 0.55%, reference price i","hash":"1d68731808a3de49805e693af30e29a2e631a96764daabe39eba4374a8606b27","type":"kalshi_eth","field":"markets","title":"Will Ether be at or above $2,350 at 5pm ET on Oct 29?","domain":null,"scoreAt":null,"closesAt":1793222559198,"postedAt":null,"typeName":"Ether at 5pm ET","resolveAt":1793308500000,"commentsAt":null,"committedAt":1793221663469},{"p":0.56,"hn":null,"id":"kalshi_btc:KXBTCD-26OCT2917-T80999.99","gen":114,"url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxbtcd","why":"Base rate 45.6%, threshold 0.135% above spot, about 0.11 expected moves away, 19.9 hours to fix with typical hourly volatility scaled to 1.19% expected move, 24h momentum slightly ","hash":"4f3d8e39fa144bbb6f51a45f998c4a9eec081a6cb6d93e8b20847bb1c84a871b","type":"kalshi_btc","field":"markets","title":"Will Bitcoin be at or above $81,000 at 5pm ET on Oct 29?","domain":null,"scoreAt":null,"closesAt":1793236959619,"postedAt":null,"typeName":"Bitcoin at 5pm ET","resolveAt":1793308500000,"commentsAt":null,"committedAt":1793236064443},{"p":0.48,"hn":null,"id":"kalshi_btc:KXBTCD-26OCT2917-T79999.99","gen":114,"url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxbtcd","why":"Threshold is 0.23% above spot, well within 1.43 expected moves to fix; 24h momentum is negative (-1.23%), so no strong positive signal; base rate 45.6% slightly adjusted upward due","hash":"205884105d285e854d5b6d7e3f447e6d14b57cd4b3fc535b56ef0abcc435400d","type":"kalshi_btc","field":"markets","title":"Will Bitcoin be at or above $80,000 at 5pm ET on Oct 29?","domain":null,"scoreAt":null,"closesAt":1793240560264,"postedAt":null,"typeName":"Bitcoin at 5pm ET","resolveAt":1793308500000,"commentsAt":null,"committedAt":1793239665356},{"p":0.4,"hn":null,"id":"kalshi_eth:KXETHD-26OCT2917-T2309.99","gen":114,"url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxethd","why":"Threshold is 0.08% below spot, well within 1.82 expected moves; 24h momentum negative (-1.77%), no strong positive signal; base rate 44.6% adjusted slightly upward for threshold pr","hash":"9efc8bf86e2d14525336ced87b9e0a127dd7d32662f7cea43aa835d2305b953c","type":"kalshi_eth","field":"markets","title":"Will Ether be at or above $2,310 at 5pm ET on Oct 29?","domain":null,"scoreAt":null,"closesAt":1793240560264,"postedAt":null,"typeName":"Ether at 5pm ET","resolveAt":1793308500000,"commentsAt":null,"committedAt":1793239665369},{"p":0.52,"hn":null,"id":"kalshi_btc:KXBTCD-26OCT2917-T79749.99","gen":114,"url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxbtcd","why":"Threshold is 0.042% above spot but well within 0.5 expected moves (1.34%), 24h momentum is negative but weak, reference price is fresh, so probability is near base rate 45.6% with ","hash":"76783a3c3b940bd38028bef11086dff248a5d0071f78d38740493c97adf224fa","type":"kalshi_btc","field":"markets","title":"Will Bitcoin be at or above $79,750 at 5pm ET on Oct 29?","domain":null,"scoreAt":null,"closesAt":1793247759303,"postedAt":null,"typeName":"Bitcoin at 5pm ET","resolveAt":1793308500000,"commentsAt":null,"committedAt":1793246864565},{"p":0.52,"hn":null,"id":"kalshi_btc:KXBTCD-26OCT2917-T80249.99","gen":114,"url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxbtcd","why":"Base rate 45.6%, threshold 0.012% above spot, well within 0.5 expected moves (1.33%), strong negative 24h momentum (-0.67%) but threshold proximity and expected move coverage suppo","hash":"3b5aef01435bc91763fab81ddd78d7a36017983cf12f10e7589363d994321ff0","type":"kalshi_btc","field":"markets","title":"Will Bitcoin be at or above $80,250 at 5pm ET on Oct 29?","domain":null,"scoreAt":null,"closesAt":1793251358702,"postedAt":null,"typeName":"Bitcoin at 5pm ET","resolveAt":1793308500000,"commentsAt":null,"committedAt":1793250463726},{"p":0.54,"hn":null,"id":"kalshi_btc:KXBTCD-26OCT2917-T81749.99","gen":114,"url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxbtcd","why":"Base rate is 45.6%, threshold is very close to spot (0.03% gap) but within 0.81 expected moves, 24h momentum is positive at +1.53%, reference price is fresh, and 4.9 hours remain, ","hash":"d9df9d78bb754fa4be1edd051786db43974e19d1ee3d226229e0559c2489b020","type":"kalshi_btc","field":"markets","title":"Will Bitcoin be at or above $81,750 at 5pm ET on Oct 29?","domain":null,"scoreAt":null,"closesAt":1793290960272,"postedAt":null,"typeName":"Bitcoin at 5pm ET","resolveAt":1793308500000,"commentsAt":null,"committedAt":1793290066166},{"p":0.48,"hn":null,"id":"kalshi_btc:KXBTCD-26OCT2917-T80749.99","gen":114,"url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxbtcd","why":"Base rate is 45.6%; threshold is 0.6% above spot, about 0.92 expected moves away with 2.9 hours left; 24h momentum is slightly negative; reference price is fresh; expected move cov","hash":"4c39f2886d78557a283807d2e1ff4539e163bd831e67f4f37e594a4279e737d8","type":"kalshi_btc","field":"markets","title":"Will Bitcoin be at or above $80,750 at 5pm ET on Oct 29?","domain":null,"scoreAt":null,"closesAt":1793298159713,"postedAt":null,"typeName":"Bitcoin at 5pm ET","resolveAt":1793308500000,"commentsAt":null,"committedAt":1793297266039},{"p":0.03,"hn":"https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=50281015","id":"50281015","gen":125,"url":"https://handheldhideout.neocities.org/articles/alien-3-cd32-second-chance-amiga","why":"Niche domain and low engagement after nearly two hours imply very low chance of reaching 100 points.","hash":"de7025503d84d55ad0df4c05b74e177baa1d31d496ee03c488436b59be10266c","type":"hn100","field":"tech","title":"Alien 3 Is Getting a Second Chance on the Amiga CD32, More Than 30 Years Later","domain":"handheldhideout.neocities.org","scoreAt":6,"closesAt":1793232459985,"postedAt":1793222229000,"typeName":"Hacker News, 100 points","resolveAt":1793308629000,"commentsAt":0,"committedAt":1793228859985},{"p":0.4,"hn":"https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=50281044","id":"50281044","gen":125,"url":"https://formlabs.com/products/form-studio-1-basic-founders-edition/","why":"Moderate points and high comments at 48 minutes, some momentum but below early threshold.","hash":"b1ae93de922ee28dbfd683fbf2720630327fa242b157a524c8ae32c0ce91074a","type":"hn100","field":"tech","title":"Formlabs Studio 1 $699 Resin Printer","domain":"formlabs.com","scoreAt":49,"closesAt":1793228859614,"postedAt":1793222370000,"typeName":"Hacker News, 100 points","resolveAt":1793308770000,"commentsAt":39,"committedAt":1793225259614},{"p":0.23,"hn":null,"id":"hn300:50281044","gen":125,"url":"https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=50281044","why":"The story has moderate points and comments but is older with a rank beyond top 10 and shows no strong recent momentum, suggesting limited chance to reach 300 points.","hash":"5819d04d770eb9b46ff56c967136a72f03f3138981b4d579c69faa23c5c4aadd","type":"hn300","field":"tech","title":"Will \"Formlabs Studio 1 $699 Resin Printer\" reach 300 points on Hacker News?","domain":null,"scoreAt":null,"closesAt":1793232460069,"postedAt":null,"typeName":"Hacker News, 300 points","resolveAt":1793308770000,"commentsAt":null,"committedAt":1793228865426},{"p":0.04,"hn":"https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=50281154","id":"50281154","gen":125,"url":"https://github.com/getopenfloat/openfloat","why":"Early stage project with low points and no comments at 99 minutes suggests low virality potential.","hash":"334475e1fabe8cedd0f774b17fddba6396d8e9bbdaf8d83f3f7e024385e41eae","type":"hn100","field":"tech","title":"Show HN: Open Source CS2 Skins Marketplace (early stage)","domain":"github.com","scoreAt":6,"closesAt":1793232459971,"postedAt":1793222903000,"typeName":"Hacker News, 100 points","resolveAt":1793309303000,"commentsAt":0,"committedAt":1793228859971},{"p":0.1,"hn":"https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=50281223","id":"50281223","gen":125,"url":"https://www.theregister.com/systems/2026/10/28/sk-hynix-says-memory-shortages-to-persist-until-2030/5305887","why":"Very low points and comments with older age and no momentum indicate low chance.","hash":"e24f0d699ffb5ae2823de7fa234bd0eb368834482fea8283c95b2ff59d7e364f","type":"hn100","field":"tech","title":"SK Hynix says memory shortages to persist until 2030","domain":"theregister.com","scoreAt":4,"closesAt":1793236059252,"postedAt":1793223304000,"typeName":"Hacker News, 100 points","resolveAt":1793309704000,"commentsAt":2,"committedAt":1793232459252},{"p":0.12,"hn":"https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=50281372","id":"50281372","gen":125,"url":"https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=50281372","why":"Moderate comments and points with positive engagement on a topical Ask HN post increase chances slightly above base rate.","hash":"5ebabf14906c67e99febc7bcf33d766a6071ae19308560e176ac8c3eb9cb0e44","type":"hn100","field":"tech","title":"Ask HN: We tax labour, why not tax AI?","domain":null,"scoreAt":5,"closesAt":1793232460001,"postedAt":1793223907000,"typeName":"Hacker News, 100 points","resolveAt":1793310307000,"commentsAt":4,"committedAt":1793228860001},{"p":0.07,"hn":"https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=50281524","id":"50281524","gen":125,"url":"https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/flavio-bolsonaro-expected-land-miami-shortly-after-trump-offers-brazil-exit-2026-10-28/","why":"News domain with low points and comments at just over an hour old shows limited momentum.","hash":"c062ff8a95351a52be74a8fbd46728112fb606fb5802a30393bb6d4d0e0ffb81","type":"hn100","field":"tech","title":"Bolsonaro declares himself rightful leader of Brazil after losing election","domain":"reuters.com","scoreAt":5,"closesAt":1793232460028,"postedAt":1793224754000,"typeName":"Hacker News, 100 points","resolveAt":1793311154000,"commentsAt":1,"committedAt":1793228860028},{"p":0.06,"hn":"https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=50281532","id":"50281532","gen":125,"url":"https://ballotbench.com/?","why":"Low points, no comments, and older age imply very low chance of reaching threshold.","hash":"7b10a1f04aedcf2091d49c52e29522575fdfbd628c055af5f9672f512dfc28e9","type":"hn100","field":"tech","title":"Can AI forecast elections better than experts?","domain":"ballotbench.com","scoreAt":4,"closesAt":1793236059291,"postedAt":1793224810000,"typeName":"Hacker News, 100 points","resolveAt":1793311210000,"commentsAt":0,"committedAt":1793232459291},{"p":0.23,"hn":null,"id":"btc_day:2026-10-28T22","gen":114,"url":"https://exchange.coinbase.com/trade/BTC-USD","why":"Base rate near 48%, price is slightly below threshold by 0.18%, about -0.12 expected daily moves away, weak positive 24h momentum (+0.6%) but negative 7d trend (-4.14%), reference ","hash":"355770b0ab641bc51f49c7da661eee12016fe3710643055c7868cf4d0d72e73d","type":"btc_day","field":"markets","title":"Will Bitcoin trade above $81,266.56 on Coinbase at 22:00 UTC on Oct 29?","domain":null,"scoreAt":null,"closesAt":1793226159697,"postedAt":null,"typeName":"Bitcoin, 24 hours","resolveAt":1793311500000,"commentsAt":null,"committedAt":1793225263950},{"p":0.07,"hn":"https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=50281587","id":"50281587","gen":125,"url":"https://finance.yahoo.com/video/goldman-sachs-says-coreweave-could-110000436.html","why":"Minimal engagement and older age make virality unlikely.","hash":"248164a9bee834f77967f32f11bba8cc7fee15f2e1c743937c196e578db85207","type":"hn100","field":"tech","title":"Goldman Sachs says CoreWeave could rack up $100B in debt by 2028","domain":"finance.yahoo.com","scoreAt":4,"closesAt":1793236059278,"postedAt":1793225139000,"typeName":"Hacker News, 100 points","resolveAt":1793311539000,"commentsAt":0,"committedAt":1793232459278},{"p":0.12,"hn":"https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=50281773","id":"50281773","gen":125,"url":"https://www.techdirt.com/2026/10/28/never-mind-the-deepfakes-chatbots-have-to-deal-with-election-lies-being-free-while-truth-is-paywalled/","why":"Low points and comments with older age and no recent growth reduce likelihood.","hash":"85ebdf7b950d36a902947ce0646ea07a494bbe105641b19892e996c98c44557b","type":"hn100","field":"tech","title":"Chatbots Have to Deal with Election Lies Being Free, While Truth Is Paywalled","domain":"techdirt.com","scoreAt":5,"closesAt":1793236059239,"postedAt":1793226174000,"typeName":"Hacker News, 100 points","resolveAt":1793312574000,"commentsAt":1,"committedAt":1793232459239},{"p":0.08,"hn":"https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=50281826","id":"50281826","gen":125,"url":"https://techcrunch.com/2026/10/28/ai-execs-may-be-too-out-of-touch-to-build-for-the-general-public/","why":"Low points, no comments, and older age suggest low probability of reaching 100 points.","hash":"0709cd207b81cad0a021727dadf328477b8195de79efc06a1a5c5f3b2c1e8ba2","type":"hn100","field":"tech","title":"AI execs may be too out of touch to build for the general public","domain":"techcrunch.com","scoreAt":4,"closesAt":1793236059266,"postedAt":1793226466000,"typeName":"Hacker News, 100 points","resolveAt":1793312866000,"commentsAt":0,"committedAt":1793232459266},{"p":0.18,"hn":"https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=50282094","id":"50282094","gen":125,"url":"https://www.the-independent.com/life-style/self-service-airport-tipping-culture-b3075115.html","why":"Moderate points and low comments with no recent strong momentum suggest below-average chance.","hash":"3a16c75e75d5f195f7920683dd06ad0257c9275d3d13834d83ae488248949079","type":"hn100","field":"tech","title":"Outrage after airport self-service checkout asks for 18% tip","domain":"the-independent.com","scoreAt":12,"closesAt":1793236059196,"postedAt":1793228007000,"typeName":"Hacker News, 100 points","resolveAt":1793314407000,"commentsAt":2,"committedAt":1793232459196},{"p":0.38,"hn":null,"id":"kalshi_spx:KXINXU-26OCT29H1600-T7754.9999","gen":114,"url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxinxu","why":"Base rate is 48%, threshold is 0.42% above previous close, about 0.66 expected daily moves away, reference is 24h old reducing update magnitude, so probability is pulled below base","hash":"6b9aca89cd82f9d10e2d6f2d0cfaa50151a64c91ebbba8a83963ab73d2cd1ea8","type":"kalshi_spx","field":"markets","title":"Will the S&P 500 close at or above 7,755 on Oct 29?","domain":null,"scoreAt":null,"closesAt":1793218959982,"postedAt":null,"typeName":"S&P 500 close","resolveAt":1793314800000,"commentsAt":null,"committedAt":1793218065889},{"p":0.23,"hn":null,"id":"kalshi_spx:KXINXU-26OCT29H1600-T7724.9999","gen":114,"url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxinxu","why":"Base rate is 48.6%, but threshold is 0.245% below reference, about -0.39 expected moves away with 6.5 trading hours left, indicating a moderate downside gap; reference is 3.1 hours","hash":"a1506c8190ebf180dbc6c5f10829bfc29b1e641c4f6be655ee250166a1d2a435","type":"kalshi_spx","field":"markets","title":"Will the S&P 500 close at or above 7,725 on Oct 29?","domain":null,"scoreAt":null,"closesAt":1793229760069,"postedAt":null,"typeName":"S&P 500 close","resolveAt":1793314800000,"commentsAt":null,"committedAt":1793228865343},{"p":0.39,"hn":null,"id":"kalshi_spx:KXINXU-26OCT29H1600-T7734.9999","gen":114,"url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxinxu","why":"Base rate 48.6%, threshold is 0.116% below reference, about -0.3 expected daily moves away, reference is 5.1 hours old reducing update magnitude, 18.9 hours to close with moderate ","hash":"b14fc5735cf783d8f98b61484767819ef64f3d2b772a8084765eff8bacdeb10d","type":"kalshi_spx","field":"markets","title":"Will the S&P 500 close at or above 7,735 on Oct 29?","domain":null,"scoreAt":null,"closesAt":1793236959619,"postedAt":null,"typeName":"S&P 500 close","resolveAt":1793314800000,"commentsAt":null,"committedAt":1793236064432},{"p":0.39,"hn":null,"id":"kalshi_spx:KXINXU-26OCT29H1600-T7714.9999","gen":114,"url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxinxu","why":"The threshold is 0.37% below the previous close, about 0.6 expected daily moves away with 6.5 trading hours left; reference price is 6.1 hours old, reducing update magnitude; base ","hash":"69aabd2d962d619652456ecd0f6b4b637828aea35f82c5cff7bd810ff89d19e4","type":"kalshi_spx","field":"markets","title":"Will the S&P 500 close at or above 7,715 on Oct 29?","domain":null,"scoreAt":null,"closesAt":1793240560264,"postedAt":null,"typeName":"S&P 500 close","resolveAt":1793314800000,"commentsAt":null,"committedAt":1793239665340},{"p":0.23,"hn":null,"id":"kalshi_spx:KXINXU-26OCT29H1600-T7709.9999","gen":114,"url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxinxu","why":"The threshold is 0.44% below the previous close with 6.5 trading hours left, about 0.55 expected daily moves away, reference is 8.1 hours old reducing update magnitude, and time to","hash":"7078725790be87418b0c4d6367a451ff5b8e38c998ca9fa72094896fae923dce","type":"kalshi_spx","field":"markets","title":"Will the S&P 500 close at or above 7,710 on Oct 29?","domain":null,"scoreAt":null,"closesAt":1793247759303,"postedAt":null,"typeName":"S&P 500 close","resolveAt":1793314800000,"commentsAt":null,"committedAt":1793246864548},{"p":0.23,"hn":null,"id":"kalshi_spx:KXINXU-26OCT29H1600-T7729.9999","gen":114,"url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxinxu","why":"Base rate 48.6%, threshold is 0.18% below reference, about -0.29 expected daily moves away, reference is 9.1 hours old reducing update magnitude, 6.5 trading hours left, so probabi","hash":"e768589ad71e2c8500aed3b01620c3fc3097a9a78fa8c5960275ef4422e0348a","type":"kalshi_spx","field":"markets","title":"Will the S&P 500 close at or above 7,730 on Oct 29?","domain":null,"scoreAt":null,"closesAt":1793251358702,"postedAt":null,"typeName":"S&P 500 close","resolveAt":1793314800000,"commentsAt":null,"committedAt":1793250463713},{"p":0.52,"hn":null,"id":"kalshi_spx:KXINXU-26OCT29H1600-T7719.9999","gen":114,"url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxinxu","why":"Base rate is 48.6%; threshold is 0.086% above reference, about 0.34 expected moves away with 5.9 hours left; reference price is fresh (0.1 hours old); moderate positive gap but wit","hash":"d332d52678a4c5a21da571d696862f443c43a15620ba62b23fe413fbb08fa478","type":"kalshi_spx","field":"markets","title":"Will the S&P 500 close at or above 7,720 on Oct 29?","domain":null,"scoreAt":null,"closesAt":1793283760726,"postedAt":null,"typeName":"S&P 500 close","resolveAt":1793314800000,"commentsAt":null,"committedAt":1793282866004},{"p":0.55,"hn":null,"id":"kalshi_spx:KXINXU-26OCT29H1600-T7699.9999","gen":114,"url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxinxu","why":"Base rate is 48.6%; threshold is 0.032% above reference, about 0.08 expected daily moves away with 1.9 hours left; reference price is fresh (0.1h old); expected move coverage is mo","hash":"be8aab9f8ddd28b44d6ef16fcafb58197f69a15040dc83cb6d328c97bf105408","type":"kalshi_spx","field":"markets","title":"Will the S&P 500 close at or above 7,700 on Oct 29?","domain":null,"scoreAt":null,"closesAt":1793298159713,"postedAt":null,"typeName":"S&P 500 close","resolveAt":1793314800000,"commentsAt":null,"committedAt":1793297266000},{"p":0.2,"hn":"https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=50282188","id":"50282188","gen":125,"url":"https://icepi.cx/","why":"Points and comments are modest with no strong momentum, near base rate.","hash":"a47f2df3179700e48012fe894dde65d632755202bd2efce347afa069e12e6fb6","type":"hn100","field":"tech","title":"Open U.S. Department of Homeland Security Directory","domain":"icepi.cx","scoreAt":8,"closesAt":1793236059225,"postedAt":1793228519000,"typeName":"Hacker News, 100 points","resolveAt":1793314919000,"commentsAt":4,"committedAt":1793232459225},{"p":0.48,"hn":null,"id":"btc_day:2026-10-28T23","gen":114,"url":"https://exchange.coinbase.com/trade/BTC-USD","why":"Base rate is 47.7%; 24-hour momentum is mildly positive (+0.48%) but 7-day trend is negative (-3.77%), conflicting signals lead to no update; threshold is at reference price; refer","hash":"815d7cb17705f60c06a45a8c4f8c16e497f1aa1ae96ad545000bf1ef5ace1e3f","type":"btc_day","field":"markets","title":"Will Bitcoin trade above $81,183.47 on Coinbase at 23:00 UTC on Oct 29?","domain":null,"scoreAt":null,"closesAt":1793229760069,"postedAt":null,"typeName":"Bitcoin, 24 hours","resolveAt":1793315100000,"commentsAt":null,"committedAt":1793228865370},{"p":0.22,"hn":"https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=50282296","id":"50282296","gen":125,"url":"https://karlbode.com/google-ai-search-refuses-to-say-who-won-the-2020-election/","why":"Decent comments relative to points and moderate age indicate slight positive momentum.","hash":"2b30e7a7c0a994ceb636e3606d2a23a9e0638b129deb174604857697d3071802","type":"hn100","field":"tech","title":"Google AI Search Refuses to Say Who Won the 2020 Election","domain":"karlbode.com","scoreAt":9,"closesAt":1793236059211,"postedAt":1793229239000,"typeName":"Hacker News, 100 points","resolveAt":1793315639000,"commentsAt":5,"committedAt":1793232459211},{"p":0.02,"hn":"https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=50282311","id":"50282311","gen":125,"url":"https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2026/10/27/we-interrupt-our-usual-programming-to-inform-you-that-i-was-never-hired-by-facebook-to-do-a-hit-job-on-jonathan-haidt/","why":"Very low points and no comments at 171 minutes with no momentum indicate negligible chance to reach 100 points.","hash":"c9638942a561eeb3d1f9b673deb41590c99c60fdceaffbdafa7c313db99717e8","type":"hn100","field":"tech","title":"I was never hired by Facebook to do a hit job on Jonathan Haidt","domain":"statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu","scoreAt":4,"closesAt":1793243260245,"postedAt":1793229341000,"typeName":"Hacker News, 100 points","resolveAt":1793315741000,"commentsAt":0,"committedAt":1793239660245},{"p":0.03,"hn":"https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=50282453","id":"50282453","gen":125,"url":"https://hypr.land/news/update57/","why":"Low points and no comments at 152 minutes with no growth suggest very low chance of reaching 100 points.","hash":"c4c13ab4e98d03b6f776c89083b90d5b10cdd542353caadbe9419b2265948542","type":"hn100","field":"tech","title":"Hyprland 0.57 is finally here","domain":"hypr.land","scoreAt":4,"closesAt":1793243260232,"postedAt":1793230486000,"typeName":"Hacker News, 100 points","resolveAt":1793316886000,"commentsAt":0,"committedAt":1793239660232},{"p":0.85,"hn":"https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=50282454","id":"50282454","gen":125,"url":"https://data.stackexchange.com/stackoverflow/query/1926661#graph?t=1","why":"Strong momentum with 75 points and 70 comments at 92 minutes indicates high likelihood to reach 100 points.","hash":"12486ae0cadc9d32ee4bdd1e29848d0d168ccadcbc0e2319507968fa67c6eb1d","type":"hn100","field":"tech","title":"StackOverflow now gets fewer than 1000 questions a month","domain":"data.stackexchange.com","scoreAt":75,"closesAt":1793239659485,"postedAt":1793230502000,"typeName":"Hacker News, 100 points","resolveAt":1793316902000,"commentsAt":70,"committedAt":1793236059485},{"p":0.55,"hn":null,"id":"hn300:50282454","gen":125,"url":"https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=50282454","why":"Points (75) and high comments (70) with front page rank 11 and age 93 min show good momentum and engagement, supporting a moderate chance to reach 300.","hash":"3fd0d90f484794fd303cb3340f37e1f4920eb99a9071eb23d2b723690306ac46","type":"hn300","field":"tech","title":"Will \"StackOverflow now gets fewer than 1000 questions a month\" reach 300 points on Hacker News?","domain":null,"scoreAt":null,"closesAt":1793239659619,"postedAt":null,"typeName":"Hacker News, 300 points","resolveAt":1793316902000,"commentsAt":null,"committedAt":1793236064509},{"p":0.05,"hn":"https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=50282504","id":"50282504","gen":125,"url":"https://www.empirical.health/blog/lower-ldl-target-ez-pave-trial/","why":"Low points and comments at 145 minutes with no recent momentum suggest low chance to reach 100 points.","hash":"70afe4e30549b075820f16d72fa6c05634f25547252a1e03f54951ae9d9f0c79","type":"hn100","field":"tech","title":"Low cholesterol targets cut cardiovascular events by 33%","domain":"empirical.health","scoreAt":6,"closesAt":1793243260183,"postedAt":1793230920000,"typeName":"Hacker News, 100 points","resolveAt":1793317320000,"commentsAt":1,"committedAt":1793239660183},{"p":0.12,"hn":"https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=50282538","id":"50282538","gen":125,"url":"https://blog.google/products-and-platforms/platforms/android/xreal-aura/","why":"Low points and comments with limited momentum despite credible domain, unlikely to reach 100 points.","hash":"20102899a35a02f51100139ebf3f93811c890c3f0ad82ce6a39fd68345b63a7d","type":"hn100","field":"tech","title":"The first wired XR glasses powered by Android XR","domain":"blog.google","scoreAt":10,"closesAt":1793239659584,"postedAt":1793231119000,"typeName":"Hacker News, 100 points","resolveAt":1793317519000,"commentsAt":9,"committedAt":1793236059584},{"p":0.5,"hn":"https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=50282544","id":"50282544","gen":125,"url":"https://alpinelinux.org/posts/GitLab-security-incident-CVE-2026-97229.html","why":"Moderate points and low comments with some momentum but from a less credible domain, moderate chance to reach 100 points.","hash":"946420b33f4b748367ffb879d662e932cdbdb4a092b68ebacd7c933474aacf0c","type":"hn100","field":"tech","title":"GitLab Security Incident: Attempted Exploitation of CVE-2026-97229","domain":"alpinelinux.org","scoreAt":60,"closesAt":1793239659537,"postedAt":1793231146000,"typeName":"Hacker News, 100 points","resolveAt":1793317546000,"commentsAt":10,"committedAt":1793236059537},{"p":0.62,"hn":null,"id":"hn300:50282544","gen":125,"url":"https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=50282544","why":"Strong momentum with 78 points at 142 minutes and front page rank 3 supports a high chance to reach 300 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high; Pittsburgh and Utah have moderate scoring; total slightly less likely to reach 7, so probability just below 50%.","hash":"5571f846c9bbe15a5e464e01291bfd30c9ade0c6e00aacf29154a45f92f47384","type":"sports_total","field":"sports","title":"Will Utah Mammoth at Pittsburgh Penguins produce 7 or more total goals on Oct 29?","domain":null,"scoreAt":null,"closesAt":1793314800000,"postedAt":null,"typeName":"Total score","resolveAt":1793324700000,"commentsAt":null,"committedAt":1793203672707},{"p":0.45,"hn":null,"id":"sports_total:401892603","gen":113,"url":"https://www.espn.com/nhl/game/_/gameId/401892603","why":"Total goals needed is 6; Carolina is strong defensively at home, Columbus average; total slightly less likely to reach 6, so probability below 50%.","hash":"d86cb611f45ee99181604d630db23b8d37fb88cd08700366cf4acfb5093792aa","type":"sports_total","field":"sports","title":"Will Columbus Blue Jackets at Carolina Hurricanes produce 6 or more total goals on Oct 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winless with poor recent form, and New Orleans has only a slight home advantage, so the chance of a Pelicans win is low but not negligible.","hash":"2eb799090f744fb73de72eb54be222c62af3f8f804b45ff7fd864f8f4a53247f","type":"nba_ml","field":"sports","title":"Will New Orleans Pelicans beat Sacramento Kings on Oct 29?","domain":null,"scoreAt":null,"closesAt":1793318400000,"postedAt":null,"typeName":"NBA, home win","resolveAt":1793327400000,"commentsAt":null,"committedAt":1793236064467},{"p":0.15,"hn":null,"id":"sports_spread:401909894","gen":113,"url":"https://www.espn.com/nba/game/_/gameId/401909894","why":"Given New Orleans' 0-3 start and weak home record, plus Sacramento's similar struggles, the probability of a Pelicans win by 6+ points is low despite home favorite status.","hash":"12f79e7e3212f1c9a5f21079d93cce4dcbcc417e3193f0fc5d3abdf08b7cc911","type":"sports_spread","field":"sports","title":"Will New Orleans Pelicans beat Sacramento Kings by 6 or more points on Oct 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have poor home form (0-2) and Cleveland Cavaliers have a better overall record and road form, so home win probability is below baseline but not very low due to home a","hash":"32c0339c6cda541ba5fc627e93d216adaf9e41358b2105de57717cfeecfd4bd7","type":"nba_ml","field":"sports","title":"Will Atlanta Hawks beat Cleveland Cavaliers on Oct 29?","domain":null,"scoreAt":null,"closesAt":1793318400000,"postedAt":null,"typeName":"NBA, home win","resolveAt":1793327400000,"commentsAt":null,"committedAt":1793243263108},{"p":0.4,"hn":null,"id":"sports_spread:401909893","gen":113,"url":"https://www.espn.com/nba/game/_/gameId/401909893","why":"Given Hawks' weak home performance and Cavaliers' decent road record, the Hawks as favorites to cover a 2-point margin is unlikely, so probability is below 0.5 with moderate confid","hash":"8210c062d129fe7a884e934587825eb57a5045aa2970dc9312defff28e264b1a","type":"sports_spread","field":"sports","title":"Will Atlanta Hawks beat Cleveland Cavaliers by 2 or more points on Oct 29?","domain":null,"scoreAt":null,"closesAt":1793318400000,"postedAt":null,"typeName":"Winning margin, football and basketball","resolveAt":1793327400000,"commentsAt":null,"committedAt":1793243263120},{"p":0.55,"hn":null,"id":"sports_total:401909893","gen":113,"url":"https://www.espn.com/nba/game/_/gameId/401909893","why":"Both teams have moderate scoring potential and the total of 240 is near league average; recent form and pace suggest a slightly above baseline chance of reaching this total.","hash":"9937ffc34ed7672722771aaf39d8d268872026a7befea2f2fe4cd05868f75867","type":"sports_total","field":"sports","title":"Will Cleveland Cavaliers at Atlanta Hawks produce 240 or more total points on Oct 29?","domain":null,"scoreAt":null,"closesAt":1793318400000,"postedAt":null,"typeName":"Total 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neutral.","hash":"5333e38d84901cb79cb9f9629d0d47315ff40e9243e4cc1d45ad068291961309","type":"nhl_ml","field":"sports","title":"Will Nashville Predators beat Washington Capitals on Oct 29?","domain":null,"scoreAt":null,"closesAt":1793318400000,"postedAt":null,"typeName":"NHL, home win","resolveAt":1793328300000,"commentsAt":null,"committedAt":1793207269416},{"p":0.28,"hn":null,"id":"sports_runline:401892604","gen":113,"url":"https://www.espn.com/nhl/game/_/gameId/401892604","why":"St. Louis is underdog at home with a losing record and Boston is strong on the road; low chance of a 2+ goal home win.","hash":"492c47f2653582335bf6127ce9b5dd43f6b315553b273b951b15ffdb31a3c9d5","type":"sports_runline","field":"sports","title":"Will St. Louis Blues beat Boston Bruins by 2 or more goals on Oct 29?","domain":null,"scoreAt":null,"closesAt":1793318400000,"postedAt":null,"typeName":"Win by 2 or more, baseball and 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near 52%.","hash":"d545ae8edd6eafa28e6bfa721244a5d266e86ea05e58a660106917b226e0848e","type":"sports_total","field":"sports","title":"Will Boston Bruins at St. Louis Blues produce 6 or more total goals on Oct 29?","domain":null,"scoreAt":null,"closesAt":1793318400000,"postedAt":null,"typeName":"Total score","resolveAt":1793328300000,"commentsAt":null,"committedAt":1793207269455},{"p":0.44,"hn":null,"id":"sports_total:401892605","gen":113,"url":"https://www.espn.com/nhl/game/_/gameId/401892605","why":"Total goals of 7 or more is above average; both teams have decent defense and moderate scoring, so probability is below 50%.","hash":"cead01547f52b4e2168f5078e41dbfcbf069d86202a8ded96f7f2bf2afe83364","type":"sports_total","field":"sports","title":"Will Washington Capitals at Nashville Predators produce 7 or more total goals on Oct 29?","domain":null,"scoreAt":null,"closesAt":1793318400000,"postedAt":null,"typeName":"Total score","resolveAt":1793328300000,"commentsAt":null,"committedAt":1793207269468},{"p":0.55,"hn":null,"id":"sports_total:401892606","gen":113,"url":"https://www.espn.com/nhl/game/_/gameId/401892606","why":"Montreal and Dallas both have winning records and decent scoring; total goals of 6 or more is slightly above average probability.","hash":"d31dfa1790437bc3ba0a04f3601cf2a0007df008749bffbdf2f97cd99cd78aa9","type":"sports_total","field":"sports","title":"Will Montreal Canadiens at Dallas Stars produce 6 or more total goals on Oct 29?","domain":null,"scoreAt":null,"closesAt":1793318400000,"postedAt":null,"typeName":"Total score","resolveAt":1793328300000,"commentsAt":null,"committedAt":1793207269480},{"p":0.48,"hn":null,"id":"sports_total:401892607","gen":113,"url":"https://www.espn.com/nhl/game/_/gameId/401892607","why":"Minnesota is strong at home and New York is average on the road; total goals of 6 or more is close to baseline but slightly below 50% due to Minnesota's strong defense.","hash":"15b9fe5a4fabea60a806038dab79920aa3ad9a45c0c7019268099c9dc80e4983","type":"sports_total","field":"sports","title":"Will New York Islanders at Minnesota Wild produce 6 or more total goals on Oct 29?","domain":null,"scoreAt":null,"closesAt":1793318400000,"postedAt":null,"typeName":"Total score","resolveAt":1793328300000,"commentsAt":null,"committedAt":1793207269493},{"p":0.54,"hn":null,"id":"nhl_ml:401892606","gen":113,"url":"https://www.espn.com/nhl/game/_/gameId/401892606","why":"Dallas has a slight home advantage and solid home record (4-3-0) versus Montreal's strong but less consistent road record (4-1-1), leading to a moderately above baseline home win p","hash":"e2d776380703a020d9631edeb8157ec4264f1d269ccfc606c63fafed69fd7342","type":"nhl_ml","field":"sports","title":"Will Dallas Stars beat Montreal Canadiens on Oct 29?","domain":null,"scoreAt":null,"closesAt":1793318400000,"postedAt":null,"typeName":"NHL, home 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40%.","hash":"53c1a89cc0caacf7d0c08db0c71fe9e64f6f6228fcbd64dadb1f8b93a0975da2","type":"sports_runline","field":"sports","title":"Will Dallas Stars beat Montreal Canadiens by 2 or more goals on Oct 29?","domain":null,"scoreAt":null,"closesAt":1793318400000,"postedAt":null,"typeName":"Win by 2 or more, baseball and hockey","resolveAt":1793328300000,"commentsAt":null,"committedAt":1793210866599},{"p":0.42,"hn":null,"id":"sports_runline:401892607","gen":113,"url":"https://www.espn.com/nhl/game/_/gameId/401892607","why":"Minnesota's dominant home form and New York's weaker road record increase chances of a 2+ goal margin, but NHL runline base rate and margin difficulty keep probability moderate.","hash":"0698a2e1fcced978c7416691808ed365ac1c239a4a2add799273207248ad7706","type":"sports_runline","field":"sports","title":"Will Minnesota Wild beat New York Islanders by 2 or more goals on Oct 29?","domain":null,"scoreAt":null,"closesAt":1793318400000,"postedAt":null,"typeName":"Win by 2 or more, 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record for Florida Atlantic adds uncertainty, so moderate edge to home tea","hash":"20bda8ea3c45fe387576ebc6c956c856c603679779ccb8495e4c63b535cd2ccd","type":"cfb_ml","field":"sports","title":"Will North Texas Mean Green beat Florida Atlantic Owls on Oct 29?","domain":null,"scoreAt":null,"closesAt":1793316600000,"postedAt":null,"typeName":"College football, home win","resolveAt":1793330100000,"commentsAt":null,"committedAt":1793189265326},{"p":0.75,"hn":null,"id":"cfb_ml:401869963","gen":113,"url":"https://www.espn.com/college-football/game/_/gameId/401869963","why":"James Madison is 7-1 overall and undefeated at home (4-0) versus Troy's weaker 3-4 record, favoring a confident home win probability.","hash":"11ec90b752f9ce7f59a773747f8e39e55ba0968b98b49edd93a46b3b1d6d5f5f","type":"cfb_ml","field":"sports","title":"Will James Madison Dukes beat Troy Trojans on Oct 29?","domain":null,"scoreAt":null,"closesAt":1793316600000,"postedAt":null,"typeName":"College football, home win","resolveAt":1793330100000,"commentsAt":null,"committedAt":1793189265338},{"p":0.4,"hn":null,"id":"sports_spread:401862812","gen":113,"url":"https://www.espn.com/college-football/game/_/gameId/401862812","why":"While North Texas is favored at home, winning by 14+ points is a high margin; moderate home strength but margin is challenging, so probability below 0.5.","hash":"897822ae49630fd72bb2035bd4e7242a4e90c18cf357b04a1cb34e697b5f9aee","type":"sports_spread","field":"sports","title":"Will North Texas Mean Green beat Florida Atlantic Owls by 14 or more points on Oct 29?","domain":null,"scoreAt":null,"closesAt":1793316600000,"postedAt":null,"typeName":"Winning margin, football and basketball","resolveAt":1793330100000,"commentsAt":null,"committedAt":1793189265349},{"p":0.52,"hn":null,"id":"sports_total:401862812","gen":113,"url":"https://www.espn.com/college-football/game/_/gameId/401862812","why":"Total points needed (78) is near average; both teams have decent offenses and defenses, so probability close to baseline with slight upward adjustment for recent form.","hash":"82cccf62b183496001cf73ae818dd53388bba30aa9dfa96ccc76eb8375a8b5cf","type":"sports_total","field":"sports","title":"Will Florida Atlantic Owls at North Texas Mean Green produce 78 or more total points on Oct 29?","domain":null,"scoreAt":null,"closesAt":1793316600000,"postedAt":null,"typeName":"Total score","resolveAt":1793330100000,"commentsAt":null,"committedAt":1793189265363},{"p":0.6,"hn":null,"id":"sports_total:401869963","gen":113,"url":"https://www.espn.com/college-football/game/_/gameId/401869963","why":"Total points needed (50) is relatively low; James Madison's strong offense and Troy's weaker defense suggest a moderately higher chance of reaching this total.","hash":"78480b856ebfa9d9564c9cfbd4e98cf4594ba0f301df1e9d554b93d7cad7e6aa","type":"sports_total","field":"sports","title":"Will Troy Trojans at James Madison Dukes produce 50 or more total points on Oct 29?","domain":null,"scoreAt":null,"closesAt":1793316600000,"postedAt":null,"typeName":"Total score","resolveAt":1793330100000,"commentsAt":null,"committedAt":1793189265375},{"p":0.23,"hn":null,"id":"sports_spread:401869963","gen":113,"url":"https://www.espn.com/college-football/game/_/gameId/401869963","why":"James Madison is a strong home favorite but a 21-point margin is large, so probability is below average for covering such a big spread.","hash":"1ca207f728e8288325a4924043607d08dc9947047db2c151b7796107123aaaef","type":"sports_spread","field":"sports","title":"Will James Madison Dukes beat Troy Trojans by 21 or more points on Oct 29?","domain":null,"scoreAt":null,"closesAt":1793316600000,"postedAt":null,"typeName":"Winning margin, football and basketball","resolveAt":1793330100000,"commentsAt":null,"committedAt":1793214462539},{"p":0.58,"hn":null,"id":"nfl_ml:401873023","gen":113,"url":"https://www.espn.com/nfl/game/_/gameId/401873023","why":"Green Bay has a slight home and recent 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29?","domain":null,"scoreAt":null,"closesAt":1793319300000,"postedAt":null,"typeName":"Winning margin, football and basketball","resolveAt":1793331900000,"commentsAt":null,"committedAt":1793192865762},{"p":0.52,"hn":null,"id":"sports_total:401873023","gen":113,"url":"https://www.espn.com/nfl/game/_/gameId/401873023","why":"Total of 48 points is near league average; both teams have moderate scoring records, so probability is slightly above 50% reflecting typical NFL scoring variability.","hash":"f188f64df9ffaebff844e2748bbcb2513d0ac4d2d7772cada44121738618d293","type":"sports_total","field":"sports","title":"Will Carolina Panthers at Green Bay Packers produce 48 or more total points on Oct 29?","domain":null,"scoreAt":null,"closesAt":1793319300000,"postedAt":null,"typeName":"Total score","resolveAt":1793331900000,"commentsAt":null,"committedAt":1793192865777},{"p":0.46,"hn":null,"id":"btc_day:2026-10-29T04","gen":114,"url":"https://exchange.coinbase.com/trade/BTC-USD","why":"Price is slightly below reference (-0.025%), 24h and 7d trends are negative but weak, typical daily move is 1.44%, so no strong momentum, probability near base rate 47.6% slightly ","hash":"fe8e8a9258d819a1fe22ad72e0fc0bb1713e4d0749d1a41a2322c759e435ff0a","type":"btc_day","field":"markets","title":"Will Bitcoin trade above $79,736.42 on Coinbase at 04:00 UTC on Oct 30?","domain":null,"scoreAt":null,"closesAt":1793247759303,"postedAt":null,"typeName":"Bitcoin, 24 hours","resolveAt":1793333100000,"commentsAt":null,"committedAt":1793246864580},{"p":0.52,"hn":null,"id":"nba_ml:401909895","gen":113,"url":"https://www.espn.com/nba/game/_/gameId/401909895","why":"Portland is undefeated at home but Memphis is 4-0 on the road with strong recent form; balanced matchup with slight edge to home team but cautious given Memphis' road strength.","hash":"631570dc54ff6894c9b632f8e454d065dd9db38432ad5ad7003724bc423c2ee7","type":"nba_ml","field":"sports","title":"Will Portland Trail Blazers beat Memphis Grizzlies on Oct 29?","domain":null,"scoreAt":null,"closesAt":1793325600000,"postedAt":null,"typeName":"NBA, home win","resolveAt":1793334600000,"commentsAt":null,"committedAt":1793228865388},{"p":0.43,"hn":null,"id":"sports_spread:401909895","gen":113,"url":"https://www.espn.com/nba/game/_/gameId/401909895","why":"Portland is favored but margin of 8+ points is challenging given Memphis' undefeated road record and strong defense; moderate confidence in cover but below baseline.","hash":"ee761379699305652990a47935f053c37ee03b3471618093bf010794053ae598","type":"sports_spread","field":"sports","title":"Will Portland Trail Blazers beat Memphis Grizzlies by 8 or more points on Oct 29?","domain":null,"scoreAt":null,"closesAt":1793325600000,"postedAt":null,"typeName":"Winning margin, football and basketball","resolveAt":1793334600000,"commentsAt":null,"committedAt":1793228865402},{"p":0.57,"hn":null,"id":"sports_total:401909895","gen":113,"url":"https://www.espn.com/nba/game/_/gameId/401909895","why":"Both teams have strong offenses and undefeated records, suggesting a relatively high-scoring game likely to reach 233 points, slightly above baseline total probability.","hash":"1d0ffb78ad5e56826a6550b3a9c31d5ea7759a61f7285aae3874872bc64ad4d8","type":"sports_total","field":"sports","title":"Will Memphis Grizzlies at Portland Trail Blazers produce 233 or more total points on Oct 29?","domain":null,"scoreAt":null,"closesAt":1793325600000,"postedAt":null,"typeName":"Total score","resolveAt":1793334600000,"commentsAt":null,"committedAt":1793228865413},{"p":0.4,"hn":null,"id":"nhl_ml:401892608","gen":113,"url":"https://www.espn.com/nhl/game/_/gameId/401892608","why":"Anaheim's poor home record (1-3-1) versus Buffalo's decent road record (2-1-3) suggests a below baseline home win probability for Anaheim.","hash":"5a6afff46596027ed7c8047dab9ba477d561d933b74f1368e64ee1a129374b36","type":"nhl_ml","field":"sports","title":"Will Anaheim Ducks beat Buffalo Sabres on Oct 29?","domain":null,"scoreAt":null,"closesAt":1793325600000,"postedAt":null,"typeName":"NHL, home win","resolveAt":1793335500000,"commentsAt":null,"committedAt":1793210866628},{"p":0.36,"hn":null,"id":"sports_runline:401892608","gen":113,"url":"https://www.espn.com/nhl/game/_/gameId/401892608","why":"Buffalo is the road favorite but has a modest road record and margin wins are rare; probability for a 2+ goal win is low and near runline base rate floor.","hash":"b84595f301835f95fa63c4b8cc92fcceb7f8f761be7cffa8ad3275ebc6afb01b","type":"sports_runline","field":"sports","title":"Will Buffalo Sabres beat Anaheim Ducks by 2 or more goals on Oct 29?","domain":null,"scoreAt":null,"closesAt":1793325600000,"postedAt":null,"typeName":"Win by 2 or more, baseball and hockey","resolveAt":1793335500000,"commentsAt":null,"committedAt":1793210866645},{"p":0.48,"hn":null,"id":"sports_total:401892608","gen":113,"url":"https://www.espn.com/nhl/game/_/gameId/401892608","why":"Combined scoring of 7+ goals is slightly below even given both teams' moderate offensive and defensive records, so probability is just under baseline total rate.","hash":"a792006cb20061bc551bb78034164f2cb09f43e9dcb58121d49d2e6e4852713a","type":"sports_total","field":"sports","title":"Will Buffalo Sabres at Anaheim Ducks produce 7 or more total goals on Oct 29?","domain":null,"scoreAt":null,"closesAt":1793325600000,"postedAt":null,"typeName":"Total score","resolveAt":1793335500000,"commentsAt":null,"committedAt":1793210866668},{"p":0.52,"hn":null,"id":"sports_total:401892609","gen":113,"url":"https://www.espn.com/nhl/game/_/gameId/401892609","why":"Ottawa has a strong overall record and Los Angeles a weak home record, suggesting a moderately higher chance of a 6+ goal combined total in this matchup.","hash":"76b13807d7ffad6479d0a962e52d4343f03362e637b792de09610d64d535a632","type":"sports_total","field":"sports","title":"Will Ottawa Senators at Los Angeles Kings produce 6 or more total goals on Oct 29?","domain":null,"scoreAt":null,"closesAt":1793325600000,"postedAt":null,"typeName":"Total score","resolveAt":1793335500000,"commentsAt":null,"committedAt":1793210866685},{"p":0.44,"hn":null,"id":"sports_total:401892610","gen":113,"url":"https://www.espn.com/nhl/game/_/gameId/401892610","why":"San Jose and Vancouver both have below-average records and defensive struggles, but combined scoring reaching 7+ goals is slightly less likely given recent form and home/road split","hash":"9b4d3593dd11f590012631182b3797dc73f882a9cdb38b1c29fff1165ade4f35","type":"sports_total","field":"sports","title":"Will Vancouver Canucks at San Jose Sharks produce 7 or more total goals on Oct 29?","domain":null,"scoreAt":null,"closesAt":1793325600000,"postedAt":null,"typeName":"Total score","resolveAt":1793335500000,"commentsAt":null,"committedAt":1793210866705},{"p":0.44,"hn":null,"id":"nhl_ml:401892609","gen":113,"url":"https://www.espn.com/nhl/game/_/gameId/401892609","why":"Los Angeles Kings have poor home form and Ottawa has decent road form, so home win probability is below base rate despite home advantage.","hash":"d69a3db6fe108f9ef8db8663162bc60a6607dff61ca8f6823c3d4ba69c83f2b4","type":"nhl_ml","field":"sports","title":"Will Los Angeles Kings beat Ottawa Senators on Oct 29?","domain":null,"scoreAt":null,"closesAt":1793325600000,"postedAt":null,"typeName":"NHL, home win","resolveAt":1793335500000,"commentsAt":null,"committedAt":1793214462558},{"p":0.6,"hn":null,"id":"nhl_ml:401892610","gen":113,"url":"https://www.espn.com/nhl/game/_/gameId/401892610","why":"San Jose has better home record and Vancouver struggles on the road, so home win probability is above base rate with moderate confidence.","hash":"d14cb9045b4a40f78b542070a0f511edaeec32427076897592c4294e0ebd32c1","type":"nhl_ml","field":"sports","title":"Will San Jose Sharks beat Vancouver Canucks on Oct 29?","domain":null,"scoreAt":null,"closesAt":1793325600000,"postedAt":null,"typeName":"NHL, home win","resolveAt":1793335500000,"commentsAt":null,"committedAt":1793214462575},{"p":0.3,"hn":null,"id":"sports_runline:401892609","gen":113,"url":"https://www.espn.com/nhl/game/_/gameId/401892609","why":"Ottawa is the favorite but winning by 2 or more goals is difficult in NHL; historical base rate and form suggest a low probability.","hash":"1a47940e2914bb4ba77620f2d8556fa2b4937488b7cb324d66e9e05a56d0bbd7","type":"sports_runline","field":"sports","title":"Will Ottawa Senators beat Los Angeles Kings by 2 or more goals on Oct 29?","domain":null,"scoreAt":null,"closesAt":1793325600000,"postedAt":null,"typeName":"Win by 2 or more, baseball and 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is within 0.05 expected moves, weak negative ","hash":"9b6d4902f0acec5c4fd0a30ae12fe4a20eff8f42616810eef956113840910fca","type":"btc_day","field":"markets","title":"Will Bitcoin trade above $80,115.75 on Coinbase at 06:00 UTC on Oct 30?","domain":null,"scoreAt":null,"closesAt":1793254956799,"postedAt":null,"typeName":"Bitcoin, 24 hours","resolveAt":1793340300000,"commentsAt":null,"committedAt":1793254060911},{"p":0.23,"hn":null,"id":"btc_day:2026-10-29T07","gen":114,"url":"https://exchange.coinbase.com/trade/BTC-USD","why":"Base rate is 47.4%, but BTC is down 1.12% in 24h and 3.09% in 7d, with price slightly below reference and typical daily move of 1.45%; threshold is at reference price, about -0.02%","hash":"eec91407f63cc1dc264352f5413a608affc98fed7f1f4ebe994ace93853b8a4c","type":"btc_day","field":"markets","title":"Will Bitcoin trade above $79,849.42 on Coinbase at 07:00 UTC on Oct 30?","domain":null,"scoreAt":null,"closesAt":1793258559253,"postedAt":null,"typeName":"Bitcoin, 24 hours","resolveAt":1793343900000,"commentsAt":null,"committedAt":1793257662515},{"p":0.23,"hn":null,"id":"btc_day:2026-10-29T08","gen":114,"url":"https://exchange.coinbase.com/trade/BTC-USD","why":"Base rate near 47%, price currently slightly above threshold but within 0.09 expected daily moves, weak negative 24h and 7d momentum, fresh price data, and 24 hours to resolution s","hash":"95851e53f76fc4ed25ead7ca07ca9ce3ecf6f79d020aa100c99665be4b38636d","type":"btc_day","field":"markets","title":"Will Bitcoin trade above $79,737.30 on Coinbase at 08:00 UTC on Oct 30?","domain":null,"scoreAt":null,"closesAt":1793262159984,"postedAt":null,"typeName":"Bitcoin, 24 hours","resolveAt":1793347500000,"commentsAt":null,"committedAt":1793261262173},{"p":0.23,"hn":null,"id":"btc_day:2026-10-29T09","gen":114,"url":"https://exchange.coinbase.com/trade/BTC-USD","why":"Base rate is 47.2%, but current price is slightly below reference with a small negative intraday move (-0.018%) and negative 24h and 7d trends (-1.72%, -2.21%), typical daily move ","hash":"d2443327086f0db48f019f5ac3ffa45e30c41867fdd00897a667c60805b63fc4","type":"btc_day","field":"markets","title":"Will Bitcoin trade above $79,960.03 on Coinbase at 09:00 UTC on Oct 30?","domain":null,"scoreAt":null,"closesAt":1793265758904,"postedAt":null,"typeName":"Bitcoin, 24 hours","resolveAt":1793351100000,"commentsAt":null,"committedAt":1793264863166},{"p":0.23,"hn":null,"id":"btc_day:2026-10-29T10","gen":114,"url":"https://exchange.coinbase.com/trade/BTC-USD","why":"Base rate is 47.1%, but current price is slightly below reference with a -0.041% move this hour, 24h and 7d trends are negative (-1.65% and -2.15%), typical daily move is 1.44%, th","hash":"24372a706f22979027ff04802e93dd5889af085827b7a4042c13727e70dbbb6a","type":"btc_day","field":"markets","title":"Will Bitcoin trade above $80,092.00 on Coinbase at 10:00 UTC on Oct 30?","domain":null,"scoreAt":null,"closesAt":1793269358996,"postedAt":null,"typeName":"Bitcoin, 24 hours","resolveAt":1793354700000,"commentsAt":null,"committedAt":1793268462866},{"p":0.23,"hn":null,"id":"btc_day:2026-10-29T11","gen":114,"url":"https://exchange.coinbase.com/trade/BTC-USD","why":"Base rate is 47%, but current price is slightly below reference with a -1.46% 24h and -2.14% 7d trend, both negative and exceeding 1%, indicating downward momentum; threshold is at","hash":"e983fb1a1c23f7d3175854152dde5df195534e909ab3372704451edafbc94891","type":"btc_day","field":"markets","title":"Will Bitcoin trade above $80,185.60 on Coinbase at 11:00 UTC on Oct 30?","domain":null,"scoreAt":null,"closesAt":1793272959022,"postedAt":null,"typeName":"Bitcoin, 24 hours","resolveAt":1793358300000,"commentsAt":null,"committedAt":1793272068620},{"p":0.23,"hn":null,"id":"btc_day:2026-10-29T12","gen":114,"url":"https://exchange.coinbase.com/trade/BTC-USD","why":"Base rate is 46.9%, but BTC is currently slightly below the reference price with a small negative 24h and 7d momentum (-1.43% and -1.96%), typical daily move is 1.44%, threshold is","hash":"4eb39c1b3efa66adc204bafea0a34aff79979a6902269e90762a8b3548597b6d","type":"btc_day","field":"markets","title":"Will Bitcoin trade above $80,057.41 on Coinbase at 12:00 UTC on Oct 30?","domain":null,"scoreAt":null,"closesAt":1793276564960,"postedAt":null,"typeName":"Bitcoin, 24 hours","resolveAt":1793361900000,"commentsAt":null,"committedAt":1793275669520},{"p":0.23,"hn":null,"id":"btc_day:2026-10-29T13","gen":114,"url":"https://exchange.coinbase.com/trade/BTC-USD","why":"Base rate near 47% with price just above threshold but only 0.12% move so far, typical daily move 1.44% means threshold is within 0.5 expected moves, weak momentum negative over 24","hash":"0dfdeddd17b4ff1b6a7abb1b19c5bec6636af22ef95808323fbc06ee351593e9","type":"btc_day","field":"markets","title":"Will Bitcoin trade above $79,947.60 on Coinbase at 13:00 UTC on Oct 30?","domain":null,"scoreAt":null,"closesAt":1793280162081,"postedAt":null,"typeName":"Bitcoin, 24 hours","resolveAt":1793365500000,"commentsAt":null,"committedAt":1793279266343},{"p":0.43,"hn":null,"id":"btc_day:2026-10-29T14","gen":114,"url":"https://exchange.coinbase.com/trade/BTC-USD","why":"Base rate is 46.8%; 24h and 7d momentum both negative (-0.51% and -1.74%), indicating downward trend; price unchanged this hour; typical daily move is 1.44%, so threshold is at ref","hash":"d52a7d14059885c1b73af9bcb166ca1633f13a8c7a0c84672f0d1850959d6658","type":"btc_day","field":"markets","title":"Will Bitcoin trade above $80,188.50 on Coinbase at 14:00 UTC on Oct 30?","domain":null,"scoreAt":null,"closesAt":1793283760726,"postedAt":null,"typeName":"Bitcoin, 24 hours","resolveAt":1793369100000,"commentsAt":null,"committedAt":1793282866018},{"p":0.23,"hn":null,"id":"btc_day:2026-10-29T15","gen":114,"url":"https://exchange.coinbase.com/trade/BTC-USD","why":"Base rate is 46.9%, but the threshold is at the current price, with only 0.098% move since reference, which is well within 0.5 expected moves (typical daily move 1.5%), so threshol","hash":"ae15ea9e5d412fb17f47e50310e618d38f0837d5a50043f455b160f0ab94e243","type":"btc_day","field":"markets","title":"Will Bitcoin trade above $81,090.06 on Coinbase at 15:00 UTC on Oct 30?","domain":null,"scoreAt":null,"closesAt":1793287360959,"postedAt":null,"typeName":"Bitcoin, 24 hours","resolveAt":1793372700000,"commentsAt":null,"committedAt":1793286466580},{"p":0.65,"hn":null,"id":"kalshi_pol:KXAPRPOTUS-26OCT30","gen":21,"url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxaprpotus","why":"The recent approval ratings mostly hover near or above 38.6%, with the latest reading slightly above, indicating a modestly better than even chance of staying at or above threshold","hash":"ed5b57a939f28779e91cc977ef6a06f560bad81ceeeac18a393f7d00b251cc21","type":"kalshi_pol","field":"policy","title":"Will the President's approval rating be 38.6% or higher in the RealClearPolitics average on Oct 30?","domain":null,"scoreAt":null,"closesAt":1792775261739,"postedAt":null,"typeName":"Presidential approval","resolveAt":1793374200000,"commentsAt":null,"committedAt":1792771667870},{"p":0.52,"hn":null,"id":"fr_rules_week:2026-10-26","gen":21,"url":"https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/search?conditions%5Btype%5D%5B%5D=RULE","why":"Recent weeks show about half the weeks meeting or exceeding 48 final rules, with no holidays reducing publishing days next week.","hash":"9185e0ca869bf85412607cf63d1e562cbeb97426de07b7987360a7533b2e8e84","type":"fr_rules_week","field":"policy","title":"Will the Federal Register publish 48 or more final rules in the week of Oct 26?","domain":null,"scoreAt":null,"closesAt":1792775261739,"postedAt":null,"typeName":"Federal rules next week","resolveAt":1793448000000,"commentsAt":null,"committedAt":1792771667856},{"p":0.23,"hn":null,"id":"eo_week:KXEOWEEK-26OCT24","gen":21,"url":"https://www.federalregister.gov/presidential-documents/executive-orders","why":"No executive orders have been signed so far this week, and recent weeks often have low counts including zeros, making it less likely more than zero will be signed this week.","hash":"b46fd0d44e978a15e8eb8bab2efac22d6458cd0421f576fb6a3ffcf943d09e55","type":"eo_week","field":"policy","title":"Will the President sign more than 0 executive orders between Oct 18 and Oct 24?","domain":null,"scoreAt":null,"closesAt":1792264059604,"postedAt":null,"typeName":"Executive orders this week","resolveAt":1793714400000,"commentsAt":null,"committedAt":1792260461648},{"p":0.23,"hn":null,"id":"eo_week:KXEOWEEK-26OCT31","gen":21,"url":"https://www.federalregister.gov/presidential-documents/executive-orders","why":"With 0 executive orders signed so far and 8 days left, plus a recent median of 1.5, it is unlikely more than 1 will be signed this week.","hash":"bda1136a6be9313d0b3067e926ac1923a13a717e7fd186b371f2b8c7844dd3bc","type":"eo_week","field":"policy","title":"Will the President sign more than 1 executive order between Oct 25 and Oct 31?","domain":null,"scoreAt":null,"closesAt":1792854459415,"postedAt":null,"typeName":"Executive orders this week","resolveAt":1794319200000,"commentsAt":null,"committedAt":1792850861731}],"arena":{"key":"hn100","name":"Hacker News","question":"Will this story reach 100 points within 24 hours of being posted?","threshold":100,"horizonHours":24},"chain":{"head":"3755e2cce392f75fd46b015adc88dfa5d65229b7de453c122514eef7e8e430b7","length":19081,"startedAt":1790232516917},"model":"openai/gpt-4.1-mini","stats":{"edge":-0.02219551467089588,"hits":6577,"open":390,"brier":0.17355537851827998,"skill":0.11485602814968399,"voided":5,"baseRate":0.3258923757144398,"resolved":9273,"committed":9668,"baselineBrier":0.19607587470259516,"firstCommitAt":1790232522441,"nextVerdictAt":1792634859294,"marketQuestions":2522},"agents":{"board":[],"exams":0,"alcock":{"brier":0.1736,"skill":0.115,"verdicts":9273},"fields":{"tech":{"board":[],"alcock":{"brier":0.1283,"score":0.252,"skill":0.253,"verdicts":6169,"edge_vs_market":null,"market_questions":0}},"policy":{"board":[],"alcock":{"brier":0.3313,"score":-0.219,"skill":-0.325,"verdicts":41,"edge_vs_market":-0.1261,"market_questions":39}},"sports":{"board":[],"alcock":{"brier":0.2484,"score":-0.025,"skill":-0.025,"verdicts":2016,"edge_vs_market":-0.0145,"market_questions":2016}},"markets":{"board":[],"alcock":{"brier":0.2901,"score":-0.163,"skill":-0.166,"verdicts":1047,"edge_vs_market":-0.0466,"market_questions":467}}},"models":[],"library":[],"verdicts":0,"active24h":0,"forecasts":0,"registered":3,"rulesShared":0},"fields":[{"key":"markets","edge":-0.046617286937901445,"live":true,"name":"Markets","open":56,"blurb":"Stocks, crypto, rates and economic releases, measured against the market's own price.","brier":0.29006850525310346,"skill":-0.16614400395548223,"types":[{"key":"kalshi_spx","edge":-0.05019525139664811,"name":"S&P 500 close","open":8,"brier":0.28947932960893885,"skill":-0.15882148925537698,"ownRate":true,"baseRate":0.4860335195530726,"question":"Will the S&P 500 close at or above the threshold today?","resolved":179,"marketQuestions":179},{"key":"kalshi_btc","edge":-0.01972142857142849,"name":"Bitcoin at 5pm ET","open":8,"brier":0.26286054421768723,"skill":-0.05973013059701593,"ownRate":true,"baseRate":0.4557823129251701,"question":"Will Bitcoin be above the threshold at Kalshi's 5pm ET daily fix?","resolved":147,"marketQuestions":147},{"key":"kalshi_eth","edge":-0.036117692307692226,"name":"Ether at 5pm ET","open":3,"brier":0.2741707692307692,"skill":-0.1095512452107279,"ownRate":true,"baseRate":0.4461538461538462,"question":"Will Ether be above the threshold at Kalshi's 5pm ET daily fix?","resolved":65,"marketQuestions":65},{"key":"btc_day","edge":null,"name":"Bitcoin, 24 hours","open":24,"brier":0.30477464476021177,"skill":-0.2233014356717713,"ownRate":true,"baseRate":0.4706927175843694,"question":"Will Bitcoin's Coinbase price at this hour tomorrow be above its price at this hour today?","resolved":563,"marketQuestions":0},{"key":"poly","edge":-0.09317797333333332,"name":"Polymarket, finance and crypto","open":10,"brier":0.254748,"skill":-0.03387987012987037,"ownRate":true,"baseRate":0.44,"question":"Will this Polymarket market resolve YES?","resolved":75,"marketQuestions":75},{"key":"ust10y","edge":null,"name":"10-year Treasury yield","open":1,"brier":0.2356823529411765,"skill":0.04532024399542478,"ownRate":false,"baseRate":0.48,"question":"Will the next published 10-year Treasury par yield be higher than the latest one?","resolved":17,"marketQuestions":0},{"key":"kalshi_macro","edge":-0.5502749999999998,"name":"Economic releases","open":2,"brier":0.7224999999999999,"skill":-1.8899999999999997,"ownRate":false,"baseRate":0.5,"question":"Will the economic release or Fed decision land on the YES side of the threshold?","resolved":1,"marketQuestions":1}],"voided":0,"champion":{"gen":114,"since":1792919295687,"doctrine":"1. Use question-type base rates as priors but update only when signal magnitude exceeds 1.0× typical volatility to reduce overreaction to normal fluctuations.\n2. For price threshold questions, compute distance to threshold in expected moves (volatility × sqrt(time remaining)) and update probabilities only if threshold lies beyond ±0.5 expected moves, applying a calibrated sigmoid with reduced slope to avoid overconfidence on marginal gaps.\n3. For cryptocurrency momentum, weight recent price changes symmetrically over last 12 hours (50% positive, 50% negative) and cap adjustments at ±10% to avoid bias toward upside that caused misses.\n4. Combine 24-hour momentum and 7-day trend additively, without interaction amplification, applying updates only if both exceed ±1.0% in the same direction; otherwise revert to base rate.\n5. Use freshest intraday reference price within 30 seconds; if older, reduce update magnitude by 50% to better balance data freshness and availability.\n6. For Kalshi and Polymarket questions, update probabilities only if expected move to fix covers at least 75% of threshold gap, reducing false confidence on marginal coverage.\n7. In final 10% of time to resolution, reduce update magnitude by 90% and slightly pull probabilities toward base rate to prevent overconfidence near close.\n8. Calibrate probabilities within 40%-60% range by default, allowing wider ranges (25%-75%) only for strong, consistent signals with clear momentum and threshold distance.\n9. Explain forecasts including base rate, threshold proximity in expected moves, symmetric momentum strength/direction, reference price freshness, expected move coverage, and time-to-resolution effects."},"resolved":1047,"committed":1103,"evolutionNote":"waiting for 24 new verdicts (9 so far)","nextVerdictAt":1793081258596,"marketQuestions":467},{"key":"sports","edge":-0.014529179563491857,"live":true,"name":"Sports","open":99,"blurb":"Winners, margins, totals and draws in the NFL, NBA, MLB, NHL, college football and soccer.","brier":0.2483904761904761,"skill":-0.024934483196314083,"types":[{"key":"nfl_ml","edge":0.026764073170731748,"name":"NFL, home win","open":1,"brier":0.22149024390243904,"skill":0.1670626003210275,"ownRate":false,"baseRate":0.55,"question":"Will the home team win this NFL game? Overtime counts.","resolved":41,"marketQuestions":41},{"key":"nba_ml","edge":-0.047992023622047436,"name":"NBA, home win","open":13,"brier":0.26760314960629933,"skill":-0.07367442786069711,"ownRate":true,"baseRate":0.5275590551181102,"question":"Will the home team win this NBA game? Overtime counts.","resolved":127,"marketQuestions":127},{"key":"mlb_ml","edge":0.00957248,"name":"MLB, home win","open":0,"brier":0.248612,"skill":0.023135559921414584,"ownRate":false,"baseRate":0.53,"question":"Will the home team win this MLB game? Overtime counts.","resolved":25,"marketQuestions":25},{"key":"nhl_ml","edge":-0.01843855828220859,"name":"NHL, home win","open":14,"brier":0.2491858895705521,"skill":-0.02075545790934319,"ownRate":true,"baseRate":0.5766871165644172,"question":"Will the home team win this NHL game? Overtime counts.","resolved":163,"marketQuestions":163},{"key":"cfb_ml","edge":-0.021031994219653245,"name":"College football, home win","open":5,"brier":0.24194161849711,"skill":0.0080725068493126,"ownRate":true,"baseRate":0.5780346820809249,"question":"Will the home team win this College football game? Overtime counts.","resolved":173,"marketQuestions":173},{"key":"epl_ml","edge":-0.04572270000000002,"name":"Premier League, home win","open":0,"brier":0.2399233333333334,"skill":0.02404067796610132,"ownRate":false,"baseRate":0.45,"question":"Will the home team win this Premier League game? A draw counts as NO.","resolved":30,"marketQuestions":30},{"key":"mls_ml","edge":-0.0145291052631579,"name":"MLS, home win","open":0,"brier":0.23604868421052638,"skill":0.03166392045454414,"ownRate":true,"baseRate":0.42105263157894735,"question":"Will the home team win this MLS game? A draw counts as NO.","resolved":76,"marketQuestions":76},{"key":"ucl_ml","edge":-0.018593472222222296,"name":"Champions League, home win","open":0,"brier":0.23154444444444452,"skill":0.10346756152125236,"ownRate":false,"baseRate":0.46,"question":"Will the home team win this Champions League game? A draw counts as NO.","resolved":36,"marketQuestions":36},{"key":"sports_spread","edge":-0.013465498498498357,"name":"Winning margin, football and basketball","open":19,"brier":0.26394684684684666,"skill":-0.07203874807705546,"ownRate":true,"baseRate":0.43843843843843844,"question":"Will the favorite win by at least the stated margin?","resolved":333,"marketQuestions":333},{"key":"sports_runline","edge":-0.0114014521276595,"name":"Win by 2 or more, baseball and hockey","open":14,"brier":0.23946755319148935,"skill":-0.02466600484261683,"ownRate":true,"baseRate":0.3723404255319149,"question":"Will the favorite win by at least the stated margin?","resolved":188,"marketQuestions":188},{"key":"sports_total","edge":-0.010690277126099015,"name":"Total score","open":33,"brier":0.2581844574780056,"skill":-0.03474001861170417,"ownRate":true,"baseRate":0.5219941348973607,"question":"Will the two teams' combined score reach the stated total?","resolved":682,"marketQuestions":682},{"key":"soccer_draw","edge":-0.005809485915492969,"name":"Soccer draw","open":0,"brier":0.18683802816901413,"skill":-0.005981842456607156,"ownRate":true,"baseRate":0.24647887323943662,"question":"Will this soccer match end level?","resolved":142,"marketQuestions":142}],"voided":3,"champion":{"gen":134,"since":1793286501931,"doctrine":"1. Maintain league-specific base rates with soccer_draw baseline fixed at 38% to avoid overforecasting draws.\n2. Adjust team quality signal weights to 60% recent form (last 5 games) and 40% full-season metrics to better balance short-term trends and season context.\n3. For ML in soccer/MLS/EPL, treat draws as negative for home wins, but increase home win probability only if home form is top quartile and away road form is bottom quartile, raising adjustment from 2-5% to 3-6%.\n4. For spread/runline, lower minimum required sample size to 15 games with margin data for deviations from baseline, applying Bayesian shrinkage toward baseline in smaller samples; set minimum cover probability floor to 0.52 to reduce underestimation of favorites.\n5. Total score forecasts to integrate pace, offense/defense efficiency, and last 5 games scoring volatility with venue and season stage weighting; maintain forecast range at 0.43-0.62 but add a volatility multiplier based on recent scoring variance.\n6. Incorporate injury, roster changes, and rest effects more aggressively with partial confirmation thresholds; emphasize back-to-back rest effects in NBA/NHL and adjust for lead times under 24 hours.\n7. In low-information or early-season cases, constrain forecasts between 0.50-0.60 for favorites and 0.40-0.50 for underdogs to reduce extreme confident errors.\n8. For soccer_draw and MLS_draw, combine base draw rates with recent form weighted 70% and head-to-head 30%, setting minimum draw floor at 0.36 to better align with observed frequencies.\n9. Enhance explanations to highlight recalibrated probability floors, adjusted confidence intervals, and adaptive weighting to improve calibration and reduce overconfidence."},"resolved":2016,"committed":2118,"evolutionNote":"waiting for 24 new verdicts (0 so far)","nextVerdictAt":1793324700000,"marketQuestions":2016},{"key":"policy","edge":-0.126051,"live":true,"name":"Policy","open":26,"blurb":"Executive orders, federal rules and political markets, settled from official records.","brier":0.33129024390243905,"skill":-0.3251609756097562,"types":[{"key":"eo_week","edge":0.19912500000000005,"name":"Executive orders this week","open":2,"brier":0.0529,"skill":0.7884,"ownRate":false,"baseRate":0.5,"question":"Will the President sign more than the threshold number of executive orders this week?","resolved":2,"marketQuestions":2},{"key":"fr_rules_week","edge":null,"name":"Federal rules next week","open":1,"brier":0.34645000000000004,"skill":-0.38580000000000014,"ownRate":false,"baseRate":0.5,"question":"Will the Federal Register publish at least the threshold number of final rules next week?","resolved":2,"marketQuestions":0},{"key":"kalshi_pol","edge":-0.2282876666666667,"name":"Presidential approval","open":1,"brier":0.42250000000000004,"skill":-0.6900000000000002,"ownRate":false,"baseRate":0.5,"question":"Will the President's approval rating, as RealClearPolitics averages it, be at or above the threshold on the settlement date?","resolved":3,"marketQuestions":3},{"key":"poly_pol","edge":-0.13615811764705882,"name":"Polymarket, politics","open":22,"brier":0.3387264705882353,"skill":-0.3549058823529412,"ownRate":false,"baseRate":0.5,"question":"Will this Polymarket market resolve YES?","resolved":34,"marketQuestions":34}],"voided":1,"champion":{"gen":21,"since":1791191255737,"doctrine":"1. Start from the base rate for the question type, and read the resolution rule closely: the exact count, dates and source decide the answer.\n2. Government output follows the calendar. Federal holidays, recesses and the end of the fiscal year change how much gets signed or published.\n3. Weekly document counts are steady. Recent weekly counts are the best guide, and a threshold at the recent median is close to a coin flip.\n4. Executive actions come in bursts around announcements and events. What has already happened this week is strong evidence about the rest of it.\n5. Over a few days the political status quo usually holds. Scheduled votes, deadlines and releases are the exceptions.\n6. Calibrate. Use the whole range of probabilities and avoid certainty. A 70% forecast should come true about seven times in ten.\n7. Explain each forecast in one short, neutral sentence."},"resolved":41,"committed":68,"evolutionNote":"waiting for 60 verdicts (41 so far)","nextVerdictAt":1792634859294,"marketQuestions":39},{"key":"tech","edge":null,"live":true,"name":"Tech","open":209,"blurb":"What the tech world pays attention to: Hacker News, Hugging Face and Wikipedia.","brier":0.12827673853136837,"skill":0.2527177667130739,"types":[{"key":"hn300","edge":null,"name":"Hacker News, 300 points","open":29,"brier":0.2312696013289031,"skill":0.06072901425498245,"ownRate":true,"baseRate":0.43853820598006643,"question":"Will this front-page Hacker News story reach 300 points within 24 hours of being posted?","resolved":602,"marketQuestions":0},{"key":"hf_trending","edge":null,"name":"Hugging Face trending","open":24,"brier":0.18937671755725213,"skill":-0.02585033143939075,"ownRate":true,"baseRate":0.7557251908396947,"question":"Will this model still be in Hugging Face's top 10 trending models 48 hours from now?","resolved":262,"marketQuestions":0},{"key":"wiki_attention","edge":null,"name":"Wikipedia attention","open":16,"brier":0.13839216867469886,"skill":-0.792074530075189,"ownRate":true,"baseRate":0.08433734939759036,"question":"Will this English Wikipedia article, one of yesterday's most-read, get more views tomorrow than today?","resolved":166,"marketQuestions":0},{"key":"hn100","edge":null,"name":"Hacker News, 100 points","open":140,"brier":0.11277001362132938,"skill":0.3178403345770384,"ownRate":true,"baseRate":0.208990075890251,"question":"Will this story reach 100 points within 24 hours of being posted?","resolved":5139,"marketQuestions":0}],"voided":1,"champion":{"gen":125,"since":1793110110023,"doctrine":"1. Use monthly-updated question-type-specific base rates: hn100 ~20%, hn300 ~10%, hf_trending ~15%. For hn100 and hn300, lower point thresholds for upward adjustment to 7 points within first 60 minutes (hn100) and 20 points within first 90 minutes (hn300) to better capture slower starts that still reach virality.\n2. Incorporate momentum by increasing forecasts if points exceed max(7, age_minutes/6) and recent 20-minute growth in points or comments is at least 10%, emphasizing sustained engagement and allowing earlier momentum signals.\n3. For hn300, apply front-page rank boosts if combined with momentum: ranks 1-5 increase forecast if points > 70 and >10% growth; ranks 6-10 if points > 90 and >15% growth; ranks >10 reduce forecasts unless points > 120 with very strong momentum.\n4. Strengthen domain credibility boosts by requiring historical success rates >30% and consistent engagement; apply when points > 15 and momentum positive; treat unknown or low-reputation domains conservatively but allow exceptions for domains with recognized niche influence.\n5. Use comment-to-point ratio >0.15 as a positive signal starting at points > 20 and comments > 10, to better leverage early rich conversation without overweighting sparse comments.\n6. For older stories (>45 min for hn100, >90 min for hn300), discount forecasts unless points and comments increased by at least 15% in last 20 minutes; plateauing or declining engagement lowers forecasts substantially.\n7. For hf_trending, emphasize rank stability, positive trending score changes, and steady or growing downloads and likes over last 48 hours; penalize sudden sharp drops.\n8. Regularly recalibrate with segmented Brier score analysis focusing on reducing underforecasting for moderate early momentum and missed slow-build virality.\n9. Avoid relying solely on raw point thresholds; always integrate strong momentum signals from recent growth in points and comments to distinguish genuine virality from early 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Use monthly-updated question-type-specific base rates: hn100 ~20%, hn300 ~10%, hf_trending ~15%. For hn100 and hn300, lower point thresholds for upward adjustment to 7 points within first 60 minutes (hn100) and 20 points within first 90 minutes (hn300) to better capture slower starts that still reach virality.\n2. Incorporate momentum by increasing forecasts if points exceed max(7, age_minutes/6) and recent 20-minute growth in points or comments is at least 10%, emphasizing sustained engagement and allowing earlier momentum signals.\n3. For hn300, apply front-page rank boosts if combined with momentum: ranks 1-5 increase forecast if points > 70 and >10% growth; ranks 6-10 if points > 90 and >15% growth; ranks >10 reduce forecasts unless points > 120 with very strong momentum.\n4. Strengthen domain credibility boosts by requiring historical success rates >30% and consistent engagement; apply when points > 15 and momentum positive; treat unknown or low-reputation domains conservatively but allow exceptions for domains with recognized niche influence.\n5. Use comment-to-point ratio >0.15 as a positive signal starting at points > 20 and comments > 10, to better leverage early rich conversation without overweighting sparse comments.\n6. For older stories (>45 min for hn100, >90 min for hn300), discount forecasts unless points and comments increased by at least 15% in last 20 minutes; plateauing or declining engagement lowers forecasts substantially.\n7. For hf_trending, emphasize rank stability, positive trending score changes, and steady or growing downloads and likes over last 48 hours; penalize sudden sharp drops.\n8. Regularly recalibrate with segmented Brier score analysis focusing on reducing underforecasting for moderate early momentum and missed slow-build virality.\n9. Avoid relying solely on raw point thresholds; always integrate strong momentum signals from recent growth in points and comments to distinguish genuine virality from early spikes."},"verdicts":[{"p":0.23,"hn":null,"id":"btc_day:2026-10-28T19","gen":114,"url":"https://exchange.coinbase.com/trade/BTC-USD","why":"Base rate is 47.3%, but the threshold is at the reference price, so no distance adjustment; 24h momentum is +0.52% (positive), 7d trend is -4.05% (negative), conflicting signals re","hash":"e39bfcd163496bd7da95aca26db05bb661f1f6e6f7290f89662d712b2358429b","note":"Coinbase BTC-USD opened at $80,762.25","type":"btc_day","brier":0.0529,"field":"markets","title":"Will Bitcoin trade above $80,931.79 on Coinbase at 19:00 UTC on Oct 29?","domain":null,"outcome":0,"scoreAt":null,"closesAt":1793215359645,"postedAt":null,"typeName":"Bitcoin, 24 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comments and older age reduce momentum despite serious news domain.","hash":"a78b8d1d4fa7779b79c1ada93156c9e52884cc4e6f0a4b5b942dd9fe3646d8b6","note":null,"type":"hn100","brier":0.09,"field":"tech","title":"At least 68 killed in Spanish high-speed train crash","domain":"bbc.com","outcome":0,"scoreAt":31,"closesAt":1793221659850,"postedAt":1793213357000,"typeName":"Hacker News, 100 points","resolveAt":1793299757000,"commentsAt":4,"finalScore":37,"finalValue":null,"resolvedAt":1793300855882,"committedAt":1793218059850},{"p":0.03,"hn":"https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=50278929","id":"50278929","gen":125,"url":"https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/2026/11/data-center-resistance-movement/688671/","why":"Very low engagement at 140 minutes and no momentum, making virality improbable.","hash":"bcee235e4d0b772a39d24b62f915722d204a63e1f7e31263549b511305b10466","note":null,"type":"hn100","brier":0.0009,"field":"tech","title":"The Great Data-Center 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points","resolveAt":1793299518000,"commentsAt":1,"finalScore":10,"finalValue":null,"resolvedAt":1793300855857,"committedAt":1793218059958},{"p":0.05,"hn":"https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=50278896","id":"50278896","gen":125,"url":"https://www.reuters.com/business/world-at-work/dropbox-plans-9-workforce-cut-technology-chief-exit-2026-10-28/","why":"Very low points and comments at 83 minutes with no momentum signals.","hash":"9fbb1cc6a20789a8577e87c30c78cf27d477266e56ca6aac1ca108f0038fc46f","note":null,"type":"hn100","brier":0.0025000000000000005,"field":"tech","title":"Dropbox plans 9% workforce cut, technology chief to exit","domain":"reuters.com","outcome":0,"scoreAt":7,"closesAt":1793221659885,"postedAt":1793213061000,"typeName":"Hacker News, 100 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minutes, but low comments and moderate momentum limit the probability.","hash":"ef409786bab0bc17c3463e1f88611351f99b4bdee8b18e12ea3e4c4364e452d0","note":"The story had 1508 points","type":"hn300","brier":0.5625,"field":"tech","title":"Will \"Why Is This Fingerprinting Script Creating Bioweapons?\" reach 300 points on Hacker News?","domain":null,"outcome":1,"scoreAt":null,"closesAt":1793218059645,"postedAt":null,"typeName":"Hacker News, 300 points","resolveAt":1793294009000,"commentsAt":null,"finalScore":null,"finalValue":1508,"resolvedAt":1793297256589,"committedAt":1793214462652},{"p":0.42,"hn":null,"id":"hn300:50276906","gen":125,"url":"https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=50276906","why":"The story has 69 points and strong comment engagement (30) after 3 hours with a better front page rank (18), but momentum is moderate and domain is less established, leading to a m","hash":"67a1ac4453ecc9d1885f9462d13453c90ff68972cf16ef391c9f9ee39b90a38f","note":"The story had 89 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29?","domain":null,"outcome":1,"scoreAt":null,"closesAt":1793211760196,"postedAt":null,"typeName":"Bitcoin, 24 hours","resolveAt":1793297100000,"commentsAt":null,"finalScore":null,"finalValue":80798.49,"resolvedAt":1793297256558,"committedAt":1793210866553},{"p":0.02,"hn":"https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=50278101","id":"50278101","gen":125,"url":"https://twitter.com/coolerwave/status/2115393243458207755","why":"Minimal points and no comments at 66 minutes with no momentum make reaching 100 points improbable.","hash":"ffe5ccb694e4b144b4ce7c723f1bd2037837bf85ce09da700a68ba8bc87d77fd","note":null,"type":"hn100","brier":0.0004,"field":"tech","title":"Claude Code found 14,219 photos of my face on my Android that I never took","domain":"twitter.com","outcome":0,"scoreAt":6,"closesAt":1793218059541,"postedAt":1793210440000,"typeName":"Hacker News, 100 points","resolveAt":1793296840000,"commentsAt":0,"finalScore":17,"finalValue":null,"resolvedAt":1793297256067,"committedAt":1793214459541},{"p":0.02,"hn":"https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=50278031","id":"50278031","gen":125,"url":"https://www.wheresyoured.at/exit-liquidity/","why":"Low points and comments at 71 minutes with no momentum and unknown domain reduce likelihood.","hash":"9ca2de8e43af96683299ed8f44372ca79690dfdc5bdc3dd7697c8af7589f37fc","note":null,"type":"hn100","brier":0.0004,"field":"tech","title":"Exit Liquidity","domain":"wheresyoured.at","outcome":0,"scoreAt":5,"closesAt":1793218059556,"postedAt":1793210191000,"typeName":"Hacker News, 100 points","resolveAt":1793296591000,"commentsAt":1,"finalScore":6,"finalValue":null,"resolvedAt":1793297256055,"committedAt":1793214459556},{"p":0.01,"hn":"https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=50277764","id":"50277764","gen":125,"url":"https://particle.ai/blog/introducing-particle-1","why":"Very low points and no comments at 81 minutes with no momentum make virality unlikely.","hash":"f9273c298321fde10c8f8049f0218cc81f372ce7ff17389e44386f16eb4d1c8f","note":null,"type":"hn100","brier":0.0001,"field":"tech","title":"Particle-1","domain":"particle.ai","outcome":0,"scoreAt":5,"closesAt":1793218059570,"postedAt":1793209539000,"typeName":"Hacker News, 100 points","resolveAt":1793295939000,"commentsAt":0,"finalScore":17,"finalValue":null,"resolvedAt":1793297256042,"committedAt":1793214459570},{"p":0.04,"hn":"https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=50277755","id":"50277755","gen":125,"url":"https://www.quantamagazine.org/how-spiders-spin-silk-dope-into-natures-toughest-material-20261028/","why":"Low points and no comments at 142 minutes indicate plateaued interest.","hash":"e4d7fc7a9a3214ac20b9252cb853d3ff92b09d039460241f9832bc6f75fdf396","note":null,"type":"hn100","brier":0.0016,"field":"tech","title":"Spiders Spin 'Silk Dope' into Nature's Toughest Material","domain":"quantamagazine.org","outcome":0,"scoreAt":7,"closesAt":1793221659922,"postedAt":1793209524000,"typeName":"Hacker News, 100 points","resolveAt":1793295924000,"commentsAt":0,"finalScore":75,"finalValue":null,"resolvedAt":1793297256031,"committedAt":1793218059922},{"p":0.05,"hn":"https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=50277656","id":"50277656","gen":125,"url":"https://twitter.com/CharlesCMann/status/2115465939139383474","why":"Low points and comments at 86 minutes with no momentum and a low reputation domain reduce chances.","hash":"19fbe03f1426451bab91d27ace61304d6805a657a4413a891b116dba67d6038f","note":null,"type":"hn100","brier":0.0025000000000000005,"field":"tech","title":"Gemini is censoring Joe Biden in election-related results","domain":"twitter.com","outcome":0,"scoreAt":11,"closesAt":1793218059509,"postedAt":1793209237000,"typeName":"Hacker News, 100 points","resolveAt":1793295637000,"commentsAt":1,"finalScore":12,"finalValue":null,"resolvedAt":1793297256018,"committedAt":1793214459509},{"p":0.01,"hn":"https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=50277563","id":"50277563","gen":125,"url":"https://www.macrumors.com/2026/10/28/mac-studio-m5-ultra-512gb-ram/","why":"Minimal points and comments at 90 minutes with no momentum and niche domain lower chances.","hash":"e642267e4b993275a2c67f406abc3bc1c98d2a5507dca6064fd19a2a76d57c2d","note":null,"type":"hn100","brier":0.0001,"field":"tech","title":"Mac Studio with M5 Ultra Now Available with 512GB RAM for $22,299","domain":"macrumors.com","outcome":0,"scoreAt":4,"closesAt":1793218059585,"postedAt":1793209006000,"typeName":"Hacker News, 100 points","resolveAt":1793295406000,"commentsAt":1,"finalScore":4,"finalValue":null,"resolvedAt":1793297256004,"committedAt":1793214459585},{"p":0.03,"hn":"https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=50277386","id":"50277386","gen":125,"url":"https://arstechnica.com/space/2026/10/chinas-top-secret-spaceplane-cant-hide-in-low-earth-orbit/","why":"Very low points and comments at 97 minutes with no momentum indicate unlikely to reach 100 points.","hash":"df4af3e93dd12ac944c03c02cd7228a55a1b6ca2db82a921a1b22b993844d349","note":null,"type":"hn100","brier":0.0009,"field":"tech","title":"China's top-secret spaceplane can't hide in low-Earth orbit","domain":"arstechnica.com","outcome":0,"scoreAt":7,"closesAt":1793218059527,"postedAt":1793208584000,"typeName":"Hacker News, 100 points","resolveAt":1793294984000,"commentsAt":1,"finalScore":9,"finalValue":null,"resolvedAt":1793297255992,"committedAt":1793214459527},{"p":0.12,"hn":"https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=50277166","id":"50277166","gen":125,"url":"https://www.apple.com/shop/buy-mac/mac-studio","why":"Low points and comments with limited momentum and moderate age.","hash":"287e6baddbd167573b9d406e426fff309c5a3381e8b92ee4301687593c26a862","note":null,"type":"hn100","brier":0.0144,"field":"tech","title":"Mac Studio M5 Ultra 512GB Officially Released","domain":"apple.com","outcome":0,"scoreAt":13,"closesAt":1793214460112,"postedAt":1793208062000,"typeName":"Hacker News, 100 points","resolveAt":1793294462000,"commentsAt":7,"finalScore":62,"finalValue":null,"resolvedAt":1793297255980,"committedAt":1793210860112},{"p":0.03,"hn":"https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=50277155","id":"50277155","gen":125,"url":"https://www.apple.com/shop/buy-mac/mac-studio/m5-ultra-chip-36-core-cpu-80-core-gpu-512gb-memory-2tb-storage","why":"Very low points and comments with no momentum despite credible domain.","hash":"fa924c7964f2e505a2ae03925efe3e1e163375a82a106b4c55565c99de6e0b4b","note":null,"type":"hn100","brier":0.0009,"field":"tech","title":"Apple Mac Studio M5 Ultra with 512GB of Memory, ~$23k","domain":"apple.com","outcome":0,"scoreAt":8,"closesAt":1793214460181,"postedAt":1793208025000,"typeName":"Hacker News, 100 points","resolveAt":1793294425000,"commentsAt":2,"finalScore":8,"finalValue":null,"resolvedAt":1793297255968,"committedAt":1793210860181},{"p":0.01,"hn":"https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=50277124","id":"50277124","gen":125,"url":"https://twitter.com/CoinbaseSupport/status/2115274731310002356","why":"Very low points and comments at 108 minutes with no momentum and low domain credibility.","hash":"91eae0ebe30fd7bab9cf913835e45000bd980785e14e4af670a5229d1f971740","note":null,"type":"hn100","brier":0.0001,"field":"tech","title":"Security incident at Amplitude resulted in Coinbase customer contact info leak","domain":"twitter.com","outcome":0,"scoreAt":4,"closesAt":1793218059612,"postedAt":1793207968000,"typeName":"Hacker News, 100 points","resolveAt":1793294368000,"commentsAt":1,"finalScore":6,"finalValue":null,"resolvedAt":1793297255954,"committedAt":1793214459612},{"p":0.65,"hn":"https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=50276998","id":"50276998","gen":125,"url":"https://nullpt.rs/fingerprinting-bioweapons","why":"Strong momentum with 84 points at 114 minutes and positive comment ratio suggests likely to reach 100 points.","hash":"aea3371f9864d6cbcedcc25eb455f1cb921c5bade70e13b4cee8e12e85aa51e1","note":null,"type":"hn100","brier":0.12249999999999998,"field":"tech","title":"Why Is This Fingerprinting Script Creating Bioweapons?","domain":"nullpt.rs","outcome":1,"scoreAt":84,"closesAt":1793218059491,"postedAt":1793207609000,"typeName":"Hacker News, 100 points","resolveAt":1793294009000,"commentsAt":13,"finalScore":1508,"finalValue":null,"resolvedAt":1793297255937,"committedAt":1793214459491},{"p":0.98,"hn":"https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=50276940","id":"50276940","gen":125,"url":"https://www.apple.com/macbook-pro/proled-xdr-display/","why":"High points and comments with strong momentum on a top credible domain.","hash":"4bf4b2bc55f2e28057de93d540c6b941823ba8f8682afedc5e163b305dbd9588","note":null,"type":"hn100","brier":0.0004000000000000007,"field":"tech","title":"MacBook Pro with PROLED XDR Display and Touch","domain":"apple.com","outcome":1,"scoreAt":177,"closesAt":1793214460072,"postedAt":1793207437000,"typeName":"Hacker News, 100 points","resolveAt":1793293837000,"commentsAt":262,"finalScore":607,"finalValue":null,"resolvedAt":1793297255924,"committedAt":1793210860072},{"p":0.15,"hn":"https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=50276928","id":"50276928","gen":125,"url":"https://www.apple.com/newsroom/2026/10/apple-unveils-groundbreaking-macbook-pro-with-proled-xdr-display/","why":"Low points and comments with no momentum despite credible domain.","hash":"81419914f4a2437ebdc21215c5f22c4debe8af90a6f014d92105a52a498aaa16","note":null,"type":"hn100","brier":0.0225,"field":"tech","title":"MacBook Pro with PROLED XDR Display and Touch","domain":"apple.com","outcome":0,"scoreAt":17,"closesAt":1793214460095,"postedAt":1793207404000,"typeName":"Hacker News, 100 points","resolveAt":1793293804000,"commentsAt":2,"finalScore":19,"finalValue":null,"resolvedAt":1793297255911,"committedAt":1793210860095},{"p":0.04,"hn":"https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=50276906","id":"50276906","gen":125,"url":"https://cailinoconnor.substack.com/p/its-now-official-tech-is-the-new","why":"Low points and comments with no momentum on a low-reputation domain.","hash":"9662ba98929a93d8f61980933ab285689f1f2604fbc1aac76bb2aa15c8641795","note":null,"type":"hn100","brier":0.0016,"field":"tech","title":"It's now official, tech is the new tobacco","domain":"cailinoconnor.substack.com","outcome":0,"scoreAt":8,"closesAt":1793214460159,"postedAt":1793207325000,"typeName":"Hacker News, 100 points","resolveAt":1793293725000,"commentsAt":3,"finalScore":89,"finalValue":null,"resolvedAt":1793297255878,"committedAt":1793210860159},{"p":0.23,"hn":null,"id":"btc_day:2026-10-28T17","gen":114,"url":"https://exchange.coinbase.com/trade/BTC-USD","why":"Base rate near 47%, price currently slightly below threshold with a small negative intrahour move (-0.096%) and negative 24h (-0.06%) and 7d (-4.74%) trends; threshold is at refere","hash":"241aab08f845d54ac7ac388e925a67fd914d2b6908023cdcf3eed968e8542c66","note":"Coinbase BTC-USD opened at $81,173.03","type":"btc_day","brier":0.5929,"field":"markets","title":"Will Bitcoin trade above $80,494.11 on Coinbase at 17:00 UTC on Oct 29?","domain":null,"outcome":1,"scoreAt":null,"closesAt":1793208162066,"postedAt":null,"typeName":"Bitcoin, 24 hours","resolveAt":1793293500000,"commentsAt":null,"finalScore":null,"finalValue":81173.03,"resolvedAt":1793293656763,"committedAt":1793207269335},{"p":0.07,"hn":"https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=50276883","id":"50276883","gen":125,"url":"https://slidebyside.com/","why":"Low points and comments with no momentum on a less known domain.","hash":"97b7e611430c84eccaf1ed1494cb3d1fe38b4e80b4baca3a4b7a9caaed081d8d","note":null,"type":"hn100","brier":0.004900000000000001,"field":"tech","title":"Show HN: SlideBySide – Present slides without sharing your screen","domain":"slidebyside.com","outcome":0,"scoreAt":10,"closesAt":1793214460144,"postedAt":1793207229000,"typeName":"Hacker News, 100 points","resolveAt":1793293629000,"commentsAt":5,"finalScore":75,"finalValue":null,"resolvedAt":1793293655991,"committedAt":1793210860144},{"p":0.99,"hn":"https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=50276792","id":"50276792","gen":125,"url":"https://blog.google/innovation-and-ai/models-and-research/gemini-models/introducing-gemini-4-carbon/","why":"Very high points and comments well above thresholds with strong momentum and a credible domain.","hash":"e51550c5b19ffa722b556f6111f0382858ec4c805b3c6fa4f34fd5cd75413330","note":null,"type":"hn100","brier":0.00010000000000000018,"field":"tech","title":"Gemini 4 Carbon","domain":"blog.google","outcome":1,"scoreAt":297,"closesAt":1793214460054,"postedAt":1793206883000,"typeName":"Hacker News, 100 points","resolveAt":1793293283000,"commentsAt":235,"finalScore":988,"finalValue":null,"resolvedAt":1793293655980,"committedAt":1793210860054},{"p":0.05,"hn":"https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=50276235","id":"50276235","gen":125,"url":"https://www.pcmag.com/news/sk-hynix-major-memory-vendor-basically-sold-out-through-2029","why":"Low points and comments with no recent growth and older age.","hash":"7396dfc92e637dfdd17a42d39b5649fb96e9f7cefd698a9106d8743d65446ca0","note":null,"type":"hn100","brier":0.0025000000000000005,"field":"tech","title":"Major Memory Vendor: We're Basically Sold Out Through 2029","domain":"pcmag.com","outcome":0,"scoreAt":13,"closesAt":1793214460129,"postedAt":1793204604000,"typeName":"Hacker News, 100 points","resolveAt":1793291004000,"commentsAt":2,"finalScore":21,"finalValue":null,"resolvedAt":1793293655968,"committedAt":1793210860129},{"p":0.04,"hn":"https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=50276233","id":"50276233","gen":125,"url":"https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/analysis-china-ai-bubble-already-120038616.html","why":"Very low points and comments at 44 minutes with no momentum, unlikely to reach 100 points.","hash":"7c000d2992714604f761618227f1d00e1c45691cc7131b15444c4c89b9ef70b2","note":null,"type":"hn100","brier":0.0016,"field":"tech","title":"In China, the AI bubble has burst","domain":"finance.yahoo.com","outcome":0,"scoreAt":7,"closesAt":1793210862026,"postedAt":1793204600000,"typeName":"Hacker News, 100 points","resolveAt":1793291000000,"commentsAt":2,"finalScore":8,"finalValue":null,"resolvedAt":1793293655957,"committedAt":1793207262026},{"p":0.05,"hn":"https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=50275969","id":"50275969","gen":125,"url":"https://www.techradar.com/pro/security/japanese-internet-giant-gmo-tells-customers-to-shut-down-and-disconnect-pcs-from-the-internet-following-data-breach-and-ransomware-threat","why":"Very low points and comments at 59 minutes with no momentum, unlikely to reach 100 points.","hash":"fd639d2ab8ae6a124b334f0e99c08b4d4248de4e930572d24b8697e5c4a8b816","note":null,"type":"hn100","brier":0.0025000000000000005,"field":"tech","title":"Japanese internet giant GMO tells customers to unplug PCs after compromise","domain":"techradar.com","outcome":0,"scoreAt":9,"closesAt":1793210862012,"postedAt":1793203700000,"typeName":"Hacker News, 100 points","resolveAt":1793290100000,"commentsAt":1,"finalScore":9,"finalValue":null,"resolvedAt":1793293655944,"committedAt":1793207262012},{"p":0.03,"hn":"https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=50275963","id":"50275963","gen":125,"url":"https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/putin-salutes-musks-genius-russia-plays-catch-up-with-starlink-2026-10-28/","why":"Very low points and comments at 59 minutes with no momentum, unlikely to reach 100 points.","hash":"ea9697ed6082a6b1aa7c8065bc8d15178c8a4f10b7c831f19191802dd0d55501","note":null,"type":"hn100","brier":0.0009,"field":"tech","title":"Putin salutes Musk's genius as Russia plays catch-up with Starlink","domain":"reuters.com","outcome":0,"scoreAt":5,"closesAt":1793210862053,"postedAt":1793203672000,"typeName":"Hacker News, 100 points","resolveAt":1793290072000,"commentsAt":1,"finalScore":8,"finalValue":null,"resolvedAt":1793293655908,"committedAt":1793207262053},{"p":0.55,"hn":null,"id":"hn300:50275626","gen":125,"url":"https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=50275626","why":"The story has good momentum with 77 points and 48 comments at 141 minutes, a high front page rank of 4, and positive engagement indicating a higher chance to reach 300 points.","hash":"7ecdb0d390de577048bcd2b92bb38bf0a1056ecbadf48d4c23188869f0e3b610","note":"The story had 248 points","type":"hn300","brier":0.30250000000000005,"field":"tech","title":"Will \"Dayjob: Tax – evaluating AI agents on 50 professional tax assignments\" reach 300 points on Hacker News?","domain":null,"outcome":0,"scoreAt":null,"closesAt":1793214460196,"postedAt":null,"typeName":"Hacker News, 300 points","resolveAt":1793288790000,"commentsAt":null,"finalScore":null,"finalValue":248,"resolvedAt":1793290056724,"committedAt":1793210866759},{"p":0.42,"hn":null,"id":"hn300:50275373","gen":125,"url":"https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=50275373","why":"The story has strong momentum with 93 points and 49 comments at 156 minutes and a solid comment-to-point ratio, but its front page rank is low, limiting further boost.","hash":"fc863c78d03b797cb30d782dedcdd72f3b2528d8669d50e7324d3a0ce58144cd","note":"The story had 208 points","type":"hn300","brier":0.17639999999999997,"field":"tech","title":"Will \"Archive.today links going forward\" reach 300 points on Hacker News?","domain":null,"outcome":0,"scoreAt":null,"closesAt":1793214460196,"postedAt":null,"typeName":"Hacker News, 300 points","resolveAt":1793287918000,"commentsAt":null,"finalScore":null,"finalValue":208,"resolvedAt":1793290056710,"committedAt":1793210866722},{"p":0.48,"hn":null,"id":"hn300:50275128","gen":125,"url":"https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=50275128","why":"The story has solid points (72) and moderate comments (8) after nearly 5 hours, but front page rank is low (26) and momentum appears moderate, suggesting a moderate chance to reach","hash":"497fc519cea168a0f26b3ef5f4f71cac1602aa9ce169c576f10a0146791dc1c7","note":"The story had 126 points","type":"hn300","brier":0.2304,"field":"tech","title":"Will \"Nvidia Nemotron 3.5 Transcribe: open ASR for 40 languages\" reach 300 points on Hacker News?","domain":null,"outcome":0,"scoreAt":null,"closesAt":1793221659982,"postedAt":null,"typeName":"Hacker News, 300 points","resolveAt":1793287073000,"commentsAt":null,"finalScore":null,"finalValue":126,"resolvedAt":1793290056695,"committedAt":1793218065992},{"p":0.47,"hn":null,"id":"btc_day:2026-10-28T16","gen":114,"url":"https://exchange.coinbase.com/trade/BTC-USD","why":"Base rate is 47.2%, price is slightly below reference (-0.008%), 24h momentum is flat, 7d trend is negative (-4.78%), both not exceeding ±1% in same direction, so no momentum updat","hash":"68e212a823daf20031f8cfa1cfc9df7e975dd4c517486b0ccbb9d2c922632005","note":"Coinbase BTC-USD opened at $81,698.55","type":"btc_day","brier":0.28090000000000004,"field":"markets","title":"Will Bitcoin trade above $80,434.80 on Coinbase at 16:00 UTC on Oct 29?","domain":null,"outcome":1,"scoreAt":null,"closesAt":1793204561830,"postedAt":null,"typeName":"Bitcoin, 24 hours","resolveAt":1793289900000,"commentsAt":null,"finalScore":null,"finalValue":81698.55,"resolvedAt":1793290056676,"committedAt":1793203672557},{"p":0.08,"hn":"https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=50275640","id":"50275640","gen":125,"url":"https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=50275640","why":"Low points and comments at 80 minutes with no strong momentum, unlikely to reach 100 points.","hash":"248b8c478daea8bc130dda841b9271ce5879db52f2af472ac3c3f73230ec906a","note":null,"type":"hn100","brier":0.0064,"field":"tech","title":"Old.reddit.com Gone","domain":null,"outcome":0,"scoreAt":10,"closesAt":1793210861999,"postedAt":1793202440000,"typeName":"Hacker News, 100 points","resolveAt":1793288840000,"commentsAt":6,"finalScore":27,"finalValue":null,"resolvedAt":1793290056084,"committedAt":1793207261999},{"p":0.48,"hn":"https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=50275626","id":"50275626","gen":125,"url":"https://surgehq.ai/blog/dayjob-tax","why":"Good points and comments at 81 minutes with positive momentum, but domain has limited known credibility.","hash":"cea8d11521b56953cc9c04ba5886cd8ceded066237c9e5b76132822d3ba910c8","note":null,"type":"hn100","brier":0.27040000000000003,"field":"tech","title":"Dayjob: Tax – evaluating AI agents on 50 professional tax assignments","domain":"surgehq.ai","outcome":1,"scoreAt":43,"closesAt":1793210861973,"postedAt":1793202390000,"typeName":"Hacker News, 100 points","resolveAt":1793288790000,"commentsAt":29,"finalScore":248,"finalValue":null,"resolvedAt":1793290056068,"committedAt":1793207261973},{"p":0.03,"hn":"https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=50275484","id":"50275484","gen":125,"url":"https://www.reuters.com/business/world-at-work/amazon-cuts-more-jobs-devices-unit-after-flurry-product-rollouts-2026-10-28/","why":"Very low points and comments at 88 minutes with no momentum, unlikely to reach 100 points.","hash":"eff0719b25fcf35a0e50c63ae2c9522554410bf34bcb54158e538234b447671b","note":null,"type":"hn100","brier":0.0009,"field":"tech","title":"Amazon cuts more jobs, in devices unit, after flurry of product rollouts","domain":"reuters.com","outcome":0,"scoreAt":5,"closesAt":1793210862040,"postedAt":1793201929000,"typeName":"Hacker News, 100 points","resolveAt":1793288329000,"commentsAt":2,"finalScore":7,"finalValue":null,"resolvedAt":1793290056053,"committedAt":1793207262040},{"p":0.12,"hn":"https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=50275375","id":"50275375","gen":125,"url":"https://www.mongodb.com/company/blog/technical/scanning-7-point-25-million-public-repositories-chinas-largest-git-platform-for-secrets","why":"Low points and comments at 95 minutes with weak momentum, unlikely to reach 100 points.","hash":"0f4b9de6ffa1dca996c80fa55be179ce01906248e4c0206983998d53c691b7a6","note":null,"type":"hn100","brier":0.0144,"field":"tech","title":"26,400 live credentials found scanning 7.25M repos on China's Gitee","domain":"mongodb.com","outcome":0,"scoreAt":20,"closesAt":1793210861986,"postedAt":1793201519000,"typeName":"Hacker News, 100 points","resolveAt":1793287919000,"commentsAt":5,"finalScore":29,"finalValue":null,"resolvedAt":1793290056040,"committedAt":1793207261986},{"p":0.55,"hn":"https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=50275373","id":"50275373","gen":125,"url":"https://www.reddit.com/r/Seattle/comments/1xhf6qp/archivetoday_links_going_forward/","why":"Strong momentum with 59 points and 21 comments at 95 minutes, above threshold and positive engagement.","hash":"b508973d69ac431c432652cc684714f3822543250bb3a48ac10839185da566ac","note":null,"type":"hn100","brier":0.20249999999999996,"field":"tech","title":"r/Seattle mods discover malware injection by archive.today, ban site","domain":"reddit.com","outcome":1,"scoreAt":59,"closesAt":1793210861948,"postedAt":1793201518000,"typeName":"Hacker News, 100 points","resolveAt":1793287918000,"commentsAt":21,"finalScore":208,"finalValue":null,"resolvedAt":1793290056025,"committedAt":1793207261948},{"p":0.18,"hn":"https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=50275235","id":"50275235","gen":125,"url":"https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c9vy191rgn1o","why":"Points and comments low at 43 minutes with minimal momentum, close to base rate but slightly below due to weak engagement.","hash":"04d2eaac1a33ac477496762eed82061b86a15f0c7fcc6c1f90a5e89487ee5116","note":null,"type":"hn100","brier":0.0324,"field":"tech","title":"Amazon rainforest cut down to build highway for COP climate summit (2025)","domain":"bbc.com","outcome":0,"scoreAt":24,"closesAt":1793207261774,"postedAt":1793201051000,"typeName":"Hacker News, 100 points","resolveAt":1793287451000,"commentsAt":2,"finalScore":47,"finalValue":null,"resolvedAt":1793290056008,"committedAt":1793203661774},{"p":0.03,"hn":"https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=50275128","id":"50275128","gen":125,"url":"https://huggingface.co/blog/nvidia/nemotron-transcribe-granary","why":"Very low points and no comments at 49 minutes, minimal momentum or engagement.","hash":"84b0490853f06e86f3d71706ac5bd69b088ab47317f2f182c4ec80b20864b3d0","note":null,"type":"hn100","brier":0.9409,"field":"tech","title":"Nvidia Nemotron 3.5 Transcribe: open ASR for 40 languages","domain":"huggingface.co","outcome":1,"scoreAt":6,"closesAt":1793207261796,"postedAt":1793200673000,"typeName":"Hacker News, 100 points","resolveAt":1793287073000,"commentsAt":0,"finalScore":126,"finalValue":null,"resolvedAt":1793290055991,"committedAt":1793203661796},{"p":0.05,"hn":"https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=50275081","id":"50275081","gen":125,"url":"https://www.npr.org/2026/10/28/g-s1-150299/trump-methane-restrictions","why":"Low points and no comments at 52 minutes, unlikely to reach 100 points within 24 hours.","hash":"8439f59fd1b4eeacccaec1b9604d9ab573ae63f66fd43bb15499249a3a971788","note":null,"type":"hn100","brier":0.0025000000000000005,"field":"tech","title":"Trump says he's ending restrictions on climate-warming methane from oil drilling","domain":"npr.org","outcome":0,"scoreAt":12,"closesAt":1793207261785,"postedAt":1793200498000,"typeName":"Hacker News, 100 points","resolveAt":1793286898000,"commentsAt":0,"finalScore":33,"finalValue":null,"resolvedAt":1793290055953,"committedAt":1793203661785},{"p":0.23,"hn":null,"id":"hn300:50274706","gen":125,"url":"https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=50274706","why":"The story has moderate points and comments but ranks low on the front page with limited momentum, making reaching 300 points unlikely.","hash":"b09f52671b4377b9c8456d6ef969973c95b18279315761a8aeea2f99808776e4","note":"The story had 95 points","type":"hn300","brier":0.0529,"field":"tech","title":"Will \"Tesla Semi catches fire on I-880\" reach 300 points on Hacker News?","domain":null,"outcome":0,"scoreAt":null,"closesAt":1793210862066,"postedAt":null,"typeName":"Hacker News, 300 points","resolveAt":1793285647000,"commentsAt":null,"finalScore":null,"finalValue":95,"resolvedAt":1793286456633,"committedAt":1793207269506},{"p":0.65,"hn":null,"id":"hn300:50274409","gen":125,"url":"https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=50274409","why":"Strong momentum with 108 points at rank 2 and positive comment ratio at 89 minutes supports a good chance to reach 300 points.","hash":"68f525d1582ba16825cb5adc942996564eae4ac1c311fee22b2339f858f39ee8","note":"The story had 504 points","type":"hn300","brier":0.12249999999999998,"field":"tech","title":"Will \"CNC Stone Carving\" reach 300 points on Hacker News?","domain":null,"outcome":1,"scoreAt":null,"closesAt":1793207261830,"postedAt":null,"typeName":"Hacker News, 300 points","resolveAt":1793284702000,"commentsAt":null,"finalScore":null,"finalValue":504,"resolvedAt":1793286456616,"committedAt":1793203672800},{"p":0.35,"hn":null,"id":"hn300:50274251","gen":125,"url":"https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=50274251","why":"Strong momentum with 90 points and 80 comments at 277 minutes, but front page rank 13 and moderate growth suggest moderate chance.","hash":"c69e559073caddf7d11c1a23167eebfa4955b94d5ca17c3b2591445d6c199253","note":"The story had 239 points","type":"hn300","brier":0.12249999999999998,"field":"tech","title":"Will \"AlpineBSD\" reach 300 points on Hacker News?","domain":null,"outcome":0,"scoreAt":null,"closesAt":1793218059645,"postedAt":null,"typeName":"Hacker News, 300 points","resolveAt":1793284226000,"commentsAt":null,"finalScore":null,"finalValue":239,"resolvedAt":1793286456600,"committedAt":1793214462627},{"p":0.44,"hn":null,"id":"poly:3247818","gen":114,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/us-gdp-growth-in-q3-2026-20260730144539767","why":"Base rate 44.3%; moderate volume and 52.9 hours to end with no price or momentum data, so no update from base rate.","hash":"9ad0b463663ba1190dc6fd7b21c660235d999d7c8a5c19c5151656cb6de6a848","note":"Polymarket resolved YES","type":"poly","brier":0.31360000000000005,"field":"markets","title":"Will US GDP growth in Q3 2026 be greater than 3.0%?","domain":null,"outcome":1,"scoreAt":null,"closesAt":1793146060128,"postedAt":null,"typeName":"Polymarket, finance and crypto","resolveAt":1793149660128,"commentsAt":null,"finalScore":null,"finalValue":1,"resolvedAt":1793286456583,"committedAt":1793142466163},{"p":0.23,"hn":null,"id":"btc_day:2026-10-28T15","gen":114,"url":"https://exchange.coinbase.com/trade/BTC-USD","why":"Base rate near 47%, price just above threshold by 0.057% (0.04 expected moves), weak negative 7-day trend (-4.75%), small positive 24h momentum (+0.32%), fresh spot price, threshol","hash":"119ab09ebb8b00e2f6ced9d12c608b71ad20a5efa1812d2f05089fb07bf07f77","note":"Coinbase BTC-USD opened at $81,090.06","type":"btc_day","brier":0.5929,"field":"markets","title":"Will Bitcoin trade above $80,479.32 on Coinbase at 15:00 UTC on Oct 29?","domain":null,"outcome":1,"scoreAt":null,"closesAt":1793200960438,"postedAt":null,"typeName":"Bitcoin, 24 hours","resolveAt":1793286300000,"commentsAt":null,"finalScore":null,"finalValue":81090.06,"resolvedAt":1793286456563,"committedAt":1793200065053},{"p":0.25,"hn":"https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=50274706","id":"50274706","gen":125,"url":"https://electrek.co/2026/10/28/tesla-semi-fire-i-880-hayward-no-crash/","why":"Points and comments moderate at 73 minutes with some momentum, but below thresholds for strong virality signals.","hash":"3e578bad06e6dc7a66c232b53a593bac070c7c4db5167b4f314f17adb2fe72fd","note":null,"type":"hn100","brier":0.0625,"field":"tech","title":"Tesla Semi catches fire on I-880","domain":"electrek.co","outcome":0,"scoreAt":33,"closesAt":1793207261764,"postedAt":1793199247000,"typeName":"Hacker News, 100 points","resolveAt":1793285647000,"commentsAt":18,"finalScore":95,"finalValue":null,"resolvedAt":1793286456011,"committedAt":1793203661764},{"p":0.02,"hn":"https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=50274666","id":"50274666","gen":125,"url":"https://www.theregister.com/ai-and-ml/2026/10/27/anthropic-now-lets-claude-users-jump-out-of-plane-without-parachute/5305807","why":"Very low points and comments at 75 minutes with no momentum, unlikely to reach threshold.","hash":"0828e380345ada512e07364adaca7e8a679ab5e630577fe4cdd2a808f131070b","note":null,"type":"hn100","brier":0.0004,"field":"tech","title":"Anthropic now lets Claude users jump out of plane without parachute","domain":"theregister.com","outcome":0,"scoreAt":5,"closesAt":1793207261810,"postedAt":1793199116000,"typeName":"Hacker News, 100 points","resolveAt":1793285516000,"commentsAt":1,"finalScore":8,"finalValue":null,"resolvedAt":1793286455994,"committedAt":1793203661810},{"p":0.01,"hn":"https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=50274566","id":"50274566","gen":125,"url":"https://alexkras.com/opus-5-5-is-awesome/","why":"Minimal points and no comments at 80 minutes, no signs of momentum or engagement.","hash":"0f173013552da46566af9e1f05a6281d1533c053105f586baca3a587384e4fbf","note":null,"type":"hn100","brier":0.0001,"field":"tech","title":"Opus 5.5 is awesome","domain":"alexkras.com","outcome":0,"scoreAt":5,"closesAt":1793207261820,"postedAt":1793198820000,"typeName":"Hacker News, 100 points","resolveAt":1793285220000,"commentsAt":0,"finalScore":8,"finalValue":null,"resolvedAt":1793286455976,"committedAt":1793203661820},{"p":0.85,"hn":"https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=50274409","id":"50274409","gen":125,"url":"https://carmelitegothic.com/cnc-stone-carving/","why":"Already above 100 points at 89 minutes with strong comments and positive momentum, indicating high likelihood to maintain virality.","hash":"0e70857ca5fe8e62c50d762711ff6951da93e79e8ca1dcd35e62c7973459450f","note":null,"type":"hn100","brier":0.022500000000000006,"field":"tech","title":"CNC Stone Carving","domain":"carmelitegothic.com","outcome":1,"scoreAt":108,"closesAt":1793207261721,"postedAt":1793198302000,"typeName":"Hacker News, 100 points","resolveAt":1793284702000,"commentsAt":22,"finalScore":504,"finalValue":null,"resolvedAt":1793286455961,"committedAt":1793203661721},{"p":0.3,"hn":"https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=50274251","id":"50274251","gen":125,"url":"https://wiki.alpinebsd.org","why":"Moderate points and strong comment engagement at 97 minutes, but points still far from 100 with limited momentum.","hash":"128dd6b2e4973ce5570c43bb9233509451f2a773cfe23ad14a1d5efe89381a73","note":null,"type":"hn100","brier":0.48999999999999994,"field":"tech","title":"AlpineBSD","domain":"wiki.alpinebsd.org","outcome":1,"scoreAt":34,"closesAt":1793207261752,"postedAt":1793197826000,"typeName":"Hacker News, 100 points","resolveAt":1793284226000,"commentsAt":30,"finalScore":239,"finalValue":null,"resolvedAt":1793286455935,"committedAt":1793203661752},{"p":0.07,"hn":"https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=50274139","id":"50274139","gen":125,"url":"https://www.fluxlinks.com/blog/obsidian-canvas-vs-heptabase","why":"Low points and comments at 43 minutes with no momentum signals.","hash":"d217d96498ba6b2aee44ee327d0dd0d8d39e93bf96b96d1880c06db20ffad063","note":null,"type":"hn100","brier":0.004900000000000001,"field":"tech","title":"An architectural comparison of Obsidian Canvas and Heptabase","domain":"fluxlinks.com","outcome":0,"scoreAt":12,"closesAt":1793203660393,"postedAt":1793197460000,"typeName":"Hacker News, 100 points","resolveAt":1793283860000,"commentsAt":6,"finalScore":35,"finalValue":null,"resolvedAt":1793286455919,"committedAt":1793200060393},{"p":0.02,"hn":"https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=50273837","id":"50273837","gen":125,"url":"https://seekingalpha.com/news/4658887-dropbox-lays-off-9-of-workforce-expects-q3-results-to-meet-or-beat-expectations","why":"Very low points and zero comments at 59 minutes, no momentum.","hash":"f2b4e3247e089935b39353dd2e5d14bb39b3d969fba1dc1e7f018a9845bb6537","note":null,"type":"hn100","brier":0.0004,"field":"tech","title":"Dropbox lays off 9% of workforce","domain":"seekingalpha.com","outcome":0,"scoreAt":9,"closesAt":1793203660404,"postedAt":1793196499000,"typeName":"Hacker News, 100 points","resolveAt":1793282899000,"commentsAt":0,"finalScore":13,"finalValue":null,"resolvedAt":1793286455880,"committedAt":1793200060404},{"p":0.65,"hn":null,"id":"hn300:50273396","gen":125,"url":"https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=50273396","why":"Strong momentum with 114 points and 123 comments at 86 minutes, front page rank 7, and positive comment-to-point ratio indicate likely to reach 300 points.","hash":"80b20410e7aa208fd7e7998b4e92e795a8050a8f17429c15f1add73edf7e4f64","note":"The story had 473 points","type":"hn300","brier":0.12249999999999998,"field":"tech","title":"Will \"Kentucky man becomes the first humanist granted religious exemption from AI\" reach 300 points on Hacker News?","domain":null,"outcome":1,"scoreAt":null,"closesAt":1793203660438,"postedAt":null,"typeName":"Hacker News, 300 points","resolveAt":1793281290000,"commentsAt":null,"finalScore":null,"finalValue":473,"resolvedAt":1793282856576,"committedAt":1793200065065},{"p":0.3,"hn":null,"id":"hn300:50273171","gen":125,"url":"https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=50273171","why":"Moderate points and comments with rank 9 and slower momentum at 102 minutes suggest less likelihood to reach 300 points.","hash":"e3fa4311598abad710181b1a2edf00336aeb3fbaec728971d2d11481f253c70c","note":"The story had 498 points","type":"hn300","brier":0.48999999999999994,"field":"tech","title":"Will \"Emacs Turns 50\" reach 300 points on Hacker News?","domain":null,"outcome":1,"scoreAt":null,"closesAt":1793203660438,"postedAt":null,"typeName":"Hacker News, 300 points","resolveAt":1793280311000,"commentsAt":null,"finalScore":null,"finalValue":498,"resolvedAt":1793282856560,"committedAt":1793200065076},{"p":0.23,"hn":null,"id":"btc_day:2026-10-28T14","gen":114,"url":"https://exchange.coinbase.com/trade/BTC-USD","why":"Base rate near 47% with a small positive 24h momentum (+0.87%) but negative 7d trend (-3.74%) canceling out; price is just above threshold but only 0.11 expected daily moves away; ","hash":"59e9720c581dc19dd9dae51a90e2dc3d8aa5bdb0b12464d39dfd81c3d706607b","note":"Coinbase BTC-USD opened at $80,188.50","type":"btc_day","brier":0.0529,"field":"markets","title":"Will Bitcoin trade above $80,603.34 on Coinbase at 14:00 UTC on Oct 29?","domain":null,"outcome":0,"scoreAt":null,"closesAt":1793197360736,"postedAt":null,"typeName":"Bitcoin, 24 hours","resolveAt":1793282700000,"commentsAt":null,"finalScore":null,"finalValue":80188.5,"resolvedAt":1793282856541,"committedAt":1793196465063},{"p":0.01,"hn":"https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=50273753","id":"50273753","gen":125,"url":"https://simonwillison.net/2026/Oct/28/vibe-game-development/","why":"Very low points and comments at 64 minutes, no sign of growth.","hash":"707c797f4422b41640b2e59558211c91818c0fd39d07aed233634896edebb03c","note":null,"type":"hn100","brier":0.0001,"field":"tech","title":"The October inflection point for vibe game development","domain":"simonwillison.net","outcome":0,"scoreAt":5,"closesAt":1793203660415,"postedAt":1793196211000,"typeName":"Hacker News, 100 points","resolveAt":1793282611000,"commentsAt":8,"finalScore":36,"finalValue":null,"resolvedAt":1793282856081,"committedAt":1793200060415},{"p":0.25,"hn":"https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=50273731","id":"50273731","gen":125,"url":"https://cursor.com/blog/agent-sdk","why":"Points and comments are modest at 65 minutes, below momentum needed for 100 points.","hash":"58765484cccda33be95a2284bcad08023ca1dc4d0269212a2d986dbc70dc9bd3","note":null,"type":"hn100","brier":0.5625,"field":"tech","title":"The Agent SDK","domain":"cursor.com","outcome":1,"scoreAt":30,"closesAt":1793203660367,"postedAt":1793196140000,"typeName":"Hacker News, 100 points","resolveAt":1793282540000,"commentsAt":33,"finalScore":133,"finalValue":null,"resolvedAt":1793282856066,"committedAt":1793200060367},{"p":0.01,"hn":"https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=50273643","id":"50273643","gen":125,"url":"https://omegote.wordpress.com/2026/10/28/programmers-are-mourning-and-i-get-it/","why":"Minimal points and no comments at 69 minutes, no momentum.","hash":"e24c7ba4eeabfe599933ea9c189037fb2b5f3507a6a85fa12cd99568bbdbba3b","note":null,"type":"hn100","brier":0.0001,"field":"tech","title":"Programmers are mourning, and I get it","domain":"omegote.wordpress.com","outcome":0,"scoreAt":4,"closesAt":1793203660427,"postedAt":1793195873000,"typeName":"Hacker News, 100 points","resolveAt":1793282273000,"commentsAt":0,"finalScore":5,"finalValue":null,"resolvedAt":1793282856048,"committedAt":1793200060427},{"p":0.4,"hn":"https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=50273623","id":"50273623","gen":125,"url":"https://github.com/thomasunise/casecite","why":"Moderate points and comments at 71 minutes but below momentum thresholds for strong virality.","hash":"ae2c55b0a7dd825f3532b970989d3d4859697e1a694eccea0031cfef3fa1a4ae","note":null,"type":"hn100","brier":0.16000000000000003,"field":"tech","title":"Harvey raised 500M for legal AI, I built the same and open sourced it","domain":"github.com","outcome":0,"scoreAt":67,"closesAt":1793203660355,"postedAt":1793195781000,"typeName":"Hacker News, 100 points","resolveAt":1793282181000,"commentsAt":27,"finalScore":69,"finalValue":null,"resolvedAt":1793282856020,"committedAt":1793200060355},{"p":0.95,"hn":"https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=50273396","id":"50273396","gen":125,"url":"https://religionnews.com/2026/10/26/in-a-first-a-humanist-granted-a-religious-exemption-from-using-ai/","why":"Already has 114 points and strong comments at 86 minutes, well above threshold with strong momentum.","hash":"c17e3a6b7e2fcacf45cce8ad3df3b9b8c5fb6e5771eb7be4b5be3695077a6a39","note":null,"type":"hn100","brier":0.0025000000000000044,"field":"tech","title":"Kentucky man becomes the first humanist granted religious exemption from AI","domain":"religionnews.com","outcome":1,"scoreAt":114,"closesAt":1793203660337,"postedAt":1793194890000,"typeName":"Hacker News, 100 points","resolveAt":1793281290000,"commentsAt":123,"finalScore":473,"finalValue":null,"resolvedAt":1793282856004,"committedAt":1793200060337},{"p":0.05,"hn":"https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=50273201","id":"50273201","gen":125,"url":"https://www.nasscad.com/NASSCAD_V4_7_0.htm","why":"Low points and comments at 99 minutes with no recent strong growth, unlikely to reach 100.","hash":"5b809765fd5bb69e28c5c9cf7a26974092f8ce6d487de7513e41afd6b0e5f72d","note":null,"type":"hn100","brier":0.0025000000000000005,"field":"tech","title":"Show HN: Nasscad – local-first 3D CAD for browser and Windows","domain":"nasscad.com","outcome":0,"scoreAt":13,"closesAt":1793203660381,"postedAt":1793194112000,"typeName":"Hacker News, 100 points","resolveAt":1793280512000,"commentsAt":9,"finalScore":25,"finalValue":null,"resolvedAt":1793282855987,"committedAt":1793200060381},{"p":0.02,"hn":"https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=50273192","id":"50273192","gen":125,"url":"https://www.invenglobal.com/articles/27761/valve-responds-to-developers-fearing-ai-slop-and-clones","why":"Very low points and no comments at 40 minutes, unlikely to reach 100 points.","hash":"d72d73f483967f5febf634b6b97a3f7a0f416368d89c6d1b5f57b88207969dac","note":null,"type":"hn100","brier":0.0004,"field":"tech","title":"Valve Responds to Developers Fearing AI Slop and Clones","domain":"invenglobal.com","outcome":0,"scoreAt":5,"closesAt":1793200060721,"postedAt":1793194044000,"typeName":"Hacker News, 100 points","resolveAt":1793280444000,"commentsAt":0,"finalScore":67,"finalValue":null,"resolvedAt":1793282855966,"committedAt":1793196460721},{"p":0.46,"hn":null,"id":"btc_day:2026-10-28T13","gen":114,"url":"https://exchange.coinbase.com/trade/BTC-USD","why":"Base rate 46.9%, 24h momentum +0.47% but 7d trend -3.35% opposite direction, so no combined momentum update; threshold very close to reference price (0.01% move so far), typical da","hash":"0d5eac787730e9c235ed1e0c37fb5fbd5ee68a93429356748156238baea8c781","note":"Coinbase BTC-USD opened at $79,947.60","type":"btc_day","brier":0.2116,"field":"markets","title":"Will Bitcoin trade above $80,608.49 on Coinbase at 13:00 UTC on Oct 29?","domain":null,"outcome":0,"scoreAt":null,"closesAt":1793193760843,"postedAt":null,"typeName":"Bitcoin, 24 hours","resolveAt":1793279100000,"commentsAt":null,"finalScore":null,"finalValue":79947.6,"resolvedAt":1793279256457,"committedAt":1793192865722},{"p":0.23,"hn":null,"id":"btc_day:2026-10-28T12","gen":114,"url":"https://exchange.coinbase.com/trade/BTC-USD","why":"Base rate is 46.8%, but spot is below reference price with a small negative intrahour move (-0.236%), 24h momentum is positive (1.82%) but 7d trend is negative (-2.6%), netting wea","hash":"cbb3b5267065b22b54b0844d16abd2ed28ec733814669516d7286b9615d2aba5","note":"Coinbase BTC-USD opened at $80,057.41","type":"btc_day","brier":0.0529,"field":"markets","title":"Will Bitcoin trade above $81,215.30 on Coinbase at 12:00 UTC on Oct 29?","domain":null,"outcome":0,"scoreAt":null,"closesAt":1793190160375,"postedAt":null,"typeName":"Bitcoin, 24 hours","resolveAt":1793275500000,"commentsAt":null,"finalScore":null,"finalValue":80057.41,"resolvedAt":1793275659354,"committedAt":1793189265313},{"p":0.23,"hn":null,"id":"btc_day:2026-10-28T11","gen":114,"url":"https://exchange.coinbase.com/trade/BTC-USD","why":"Base rate is 46.7%, but current spot is slightly below reference price with a small negative intrahour move (-0.083%), and 24h momentum is positive (1.95%) while 7d trend is negati","hash":"7f213badc67301643ddd072488b12a86ad95ae0331b052d529a7cd7bccaf1692","note":"Coinbase BTC-USD opened at $80,185.60","type":"btc_day","brier":0.0529,"field":"markets","title":"Will Bitcoin trade above $81,372.38 on Coinbase at 11:00 UTC on Oct 29?","domain":null,"outcome":0,"scoreAt":null,"closesAt":1793186559370,"postedAt":null,"typeName":"Bitcoin, 24 hours","resolveAt":1793271900000,"commentsAt":null,"finalScore":null,"finalValue":80185.6,"resolvedAt":1793272056344,"committedAt":1793185663512},{"p":0.23,"hn":null,"id":"btc_day:2026-10-28T10","gen":114,"url":"https://exchange.coinbase.com/trade/BTC-USD","why":"Base rate near 47% with price slightly below reference and a small negative intrahour move; 24h momentum positive but 7d trend negative, giving mixed signals; threshold at referenc","hash":"08f494259ad1c038d02bb3d4d94cddd9235318ba08da33c0b686c1589ee72b9c","note":"Coinbase BTC-USD opened at $80,092.00","type":"btc_day","brier":0.0529,"field":"markets","title":"Will Bitcoin trade above $81,435.58 on Coinbase at 10:00 UTC on Oct 29?","domain":null,"outcome":0,"scoreAt":null,"closesAt":1793182959965,"postedAt":null,"typeName":"Bitcoin, 24 hours","resolveAt":1793268300000,"commentsAt":null,"finalScore":null,"finalValue":80092,"resolvedAt":1793268456668,"committedAt":1793182063996},{"p":0.23,"hn":null,"id":"btc_day:2026-10-28T09","gen":114,"url":"https://exchange.coinbase.com/trade/BTC-USD","why":"Base rate is 46.5%, but price is slightly below reference with a small negative move this hour, 24h momentum is positive but 7d trend negative, threshold is at reference price so z","hash":"abceaafc121e81690c86c852bc8344c99cfadecd181e03b4bff46975be020a41","note":"Coinbase BTC-USD opened at $79,960.03","type":"btc_day","brier":0.0529,"field":"markets","title":"Will Bitcoin trade above $81,362.25 on Coinbase at 09:00 UTC on Oct 29?","domain":null,"outcome":0,"scoreAt":null,"closesAt":1793179357469,"postedAt":null,"typeName":"Bitcoin, 24 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a slight home advantage and both teams have decent records, supporting a total near the league average with a slight lean towards over.","hash":"88c50c93b7cce9d223f46e9f8f4462574b503f693877226f7d9b54f13c3fe96c","note":"Final: Los Angeles Lakers 103, LA Clippers 87","type":"sports_total","brier":0.2916,"field":"sports","title":"Will Los Angeles Lakers at LA Clippers produce 229 or more total points on Oct 28?","domain":null,"outcome":0,"scoreAt":null,"closesAt":1793241000000,"postedAt":null,"typeName":"Total score","resolveAt":1793250000000,"commentsAt":null,"finalScore":null,"finalValue":190,"resolvedAt":1793250456265,"committedAt":1793149665278},{"p":0.47,"hn":null,"id":"sports_total:401892599","gen":113,"url":"https://www.espn.com/nhl/game/_/gameId/401892599","why":"Seattle and Toronto have balanced home and road records; combined scoring reaching 7+ goals is slightly below average NHL total 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has slightly weaker home form and Toronto has solid road form; NHL home win base rate is 58.8%, but Toronto is favored on the road, so Seattle win probability is below 50% ","hash":"a68b0ebfdec140dbf0f1fcdd51ec14f7512e05157d7515fc75581be817c24d04","note":"Final: Toronto Maple Leafs 4, Seattle Kraken 5","type":"nhl_ml","brier":0.3364000000000001,"field":"sports","title":"Will Seattle Kraken beat Toronto Maple Leafs on Oct 28?","domain":null,"outcome":1,"scoreAt":null,"closesAt":1793239200000,"postedAt":null,"typeName":"NHL, home win","resolveAt":1793249100000,"commentsAt":null,"finalScore":null,"finalValue":1,"resolvedAt":1793250456134,"committedAt":1793120866588},{"p":0.23,"hn":null,"id":"nba_ml:401909892","gen":113,"url":"https://www.espn.com/nba/game/_/gameId/401909892","why":"LA Clippers have weaker recent form (1-2) compared to undefeated Lakers (3-0), Lakers strong on road (1-0), and home advantage is moderate; thus Clippers winning is less likely.","hash":"54eca35cd5d7f52d7d534d39a57f3dd91b7f00a1c2c06f55abc88c619ab2d5b9","note":"Final: Los Angeles Lakers 103, LA Clippers 87","type":"nba_ml","brier":0.0529,"field":"sports","title":"Will LA Clippers beat Los Angeles Lakers on Oct 28?","domain":null,"outcome":0,"scoreAt":null,"closesAt":1793241000000,"postedAt":null,"typeName":"NBA, home win","resolveAt":1793250000000,"commentsAt":null,"finalScore":null,"finalValue":-16,"resolvedAt":1793250456120,"committedAt":1793153263104},{"p":0.46,"hn":null,"id":"btc_day:2026-10-28T05","gen":114,"url":"https://exchange.coinbase.com/trade/BTC-USD","why":"Base rate near 46.1%, price slightly below reference with -0.11% change this hour, 24h momentum positive but 7d trend negative; threshold at reference price, less than 0.5 expected","hash":"5b5d85539841d9c0e27681a6ee3d92101a94316a260334f018da0691967d2b6a","note":"Coinbase BTC-USD opened at $80,138.67","type":"btc_day","brier":0.2116,"field":"markets","title":"Will Bitcoin trade above $80,873.62 on Coinbase at 05:00 UTC on Oct 29?","domain":null,"outcome":0,"scoreAt":null,"closesAt":1793164958837,"postedAt":null,"typeName":"Bitcoin, 24 hours","resolveAt":1793250300000,"commentsAt":null,"finalScore":null,"finalValue":80138.67,"resolvedAt":1793250456100,"committedAt":1793164062846},{"p":0.53,"hn":null,"id":"sports_total:401909891","gen":113,"url":"https://www.espn.com/nba/game/_/gameId/401909891","why":"The total of 231 points is close to average, with no strong offense or defense signals to shift probability far from baseline.","hash":"5d447ab4582c7e3798cbda3f1cfa11e58c6485a3aa8007cdb19f3119c5f977c8","note":"Final: Oklahoma City Thunder 96, Dallas Mavericks 120","type":"sports_total","brier":0.28090000000000004,"field":"sports","title":"Will Oklahoma City Thunder at Dallas Mavericks produce 231 or more total points on Oct 28?","domain":null,"outcome":0,"scoreAt":null,"closesAt":1793237400000,"postedAt":null,"typeName":"Total score","resolveAt":1793246400000,"commentsAt":null,"finalScore":null,"finalValue":216,"resolvedAt":1793246856516,"committedAt":1793149665269},{"p":0.45,"hn":null,"id":"sports_total:401892598","gen":113,"url":"https://www.espn.com/nhl/game/_/gameId/401892598","why":"Combined scoring reaching 7+ goals is below average; both teams have moderate offense and defense, limiting total goals likelihood.","hash":"c2fa949118ccdd2c012965c81538af8e866a2a56534d96a5309d3d7bd4a5b730","note":"Final: New Jersey Devils 2, Colorado Avalanche 5","type":"sports_total","brier":0.30250000000000005,"field":"sports","title":"Will New Jersey Devils at Colorado Avalanche produce 7 or more total goals on Oct 28?","domain":null,"outcome":1,"scoreAt":null,"closesAt":1793235600000,"postedAt":null,"typeName":"Total score","resolveAt":1793245500000,"commentsAt":null,"finalScore":null,"finalValue":7,"resolvedAt":1793246856499,"committedAt":1793117266705},{"p":0.56,"hn":null,"id":"sports_total:401871057","gen":113,"url":"https://www.espn.com/college-football/game/_/gameId/401871057","why":"College football games with these teams and records often exceed 50 points; home advantage and season stage support a moderately above baseline total points probability.","hash":"31820a3a150c34b8a8c8ced7be8c1d6969de93ada8c186092dcd9c5911fdd42d","note":"Final: Jacksonville State Gamecocks 24, New Mexico State Aggies 0","type":"sports_total","brier":0.31360000000000005,"field":"sports","title":"Will Jacksonville State Gamecocks at New Mexico State Aggies produce 50 or more total points on Oct 28?","domain":null,"outcome":0,"scoreAt":null,"closesAt":1793232000000,"postedAt":null,"typeName":"Total score","resolveAt":1793245500000,"commentsAt":null,"finalScore":null,"finalValue":24,"resolvedAt":1793246856484,"committedAt":1793106467405},{"p":0.52,"hn":null,"id":"sports_total:401909890","gen":113,"url":"https://www.espn.com/nba/game/_/gameId/401909890","why":"The total of 235 points is near league average for combined scoring, with no strong signals to deviate much from baseline.","hash":"bb73f05b36aa60a4f59b3ccd47150c1018dda67f11f73565475e02f7a86f498b","note":"Final: San Antonio Spurs 117, Utah Jazz 111","type":"sports_total","brier":0.27040000000000003,"field":"sports","title":"Will San Antonio Spurs at Utah Jazz produce 235 or more total points on Oct 28?","domain":null,"outcome":0,"scoreAt":null,"closesAt":1793235600000,"postedAt":null,"typeName":"Total score","resolveAt":1793244600000,"commentsAt":null,"finalScore":null,"finalValue":228,"resolvedAt":1793246856468,"committedAt":1793149665240},{"p":0.53,"hn":null,"id":"sports_total:401908046","gen":113,"url":"https://www.espn.com/mlb/game/_/gameId/401908046","why":"Total runs near league average with postseason pitching strength; slight edge to over 7 runs given strong offenses but balanced by quality pitching and postseason context.","hash":"1042e307da4dcc7a3cef1cc963a3c6af7d19eaac774ad8662afc0a8eb7f298ed","note":"Final: Milwaukee Brewers 4, Tampa Bay Rays 1","type":"sports_total","brier":0.28090000000000004,"field":"sports","title":"Will Milwaukee Brewers at Tampa Bay Rays produce 7 or more total runs on Oct 28?","domain":null,"outcome":0,"scoreAt":null,"closesAt":1793232000000,"postedAt":null,"typeName":"Total score","resolveAt":1793243700000,"commentsAt":null,"finalScore":null,"finalValue":5,"resolvedAt":1793246856451,"committedAt":1793164062879},{"p":0.46,"hn":null,"id":"sports_total:401892597","gen":113,"url":"https://www.espn.com/nhl/game/_/gameId/401892597","why":"Total goals reaching 7+ is below average; Edmonton and Calgary moderate scoring and defense suggest a lower probability for high total.","hash":"0b47f489eb5bbeb8b92a0fd7ccb86096ee0bb0cd50d5504bd14d4e5582ffaafa","note":"Final: Calgary Flames 0, Edmonton Oilers 4","type":"sports_total","brier":0.2116,"field":"sports","title":"Will Calgary Flames at Edmonton Oilers produce 7 or more total goals on Oct 28?","domain":null,"outcome":0,"scoreAt":null,"closesAt":1793233800000,"postedAt":null,"typeName":"Total 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score","resolveAt":1793241000000,"commentsAt":null,"finalScore":null,"finalValue":4,"resolvedAt":1793243256469,"committedAt":1793106467455},{"p":0.52,"hn":null,"id":"sports_total:761910","gen":113,"url":"https://www.espn.com/soccer/game/_/gameId/761910","why":"Total goals of 3+ in this matchup is near baseline; both teams have moderate scoring, so probability is close to even but slightly below 53%.","hash":"0cd3266918a4844f7b6d30b84c6c5fe2cffbed4d12712a418b397e1643207a3b","note":"Final: Real Salt Lake 2, Austin FC 1","type":"sports_total","brier":0.2304,"field":"sports","title":"Will Real Salt Lake at Austin FC produce 3 or more total goals on Oct 28?","domain":null,"outcome":1,"scoreAt":null,"closesAt":1793233800000,"postedAt":null,"typeName":"Total score","resolveAt":1793241000000,"commentsAt":null,"finalScore":null,"finalValue":3,"resolvedAt":1793243256457,"committedAt":1793106467441},{"p":0.44,"hn":null,"id":"sports_total:401892596","gen":113,"url":"https://www.espn.com/nhl/game/_/gameId/401892596","why":"NHL games rarely reach 7+ goals; both teams have moderate scoring but combined total above 7 is below average likelihood.","hash":"aa03507d3ce844fe90bbd585bde5bcdd870d1f399d8fba78907ab59eb5dfd9f9","note":"Final: Philadelphia Flyers 2, Washington Capitals 5","type":"sports_total","brier":0.31360000000000005,"field":"sports","title":"Will Philadelphia Flyers at Washington Capitals produce 7 or more total goals on Oct 28?","domain":null,"outcome":1,"scoreAt":null,"closesAt":1793230200000,"postedAt":null,"typeName":"Total score","resolveAt":1793240100000,"commentsAt":null,"finalScore":null,"finalValue":7,"resolvedAt":1793243256446,"committedAt":1793117266644},{"p":0.38,"hn":null,"id":"sports_runline:401892596","gen":113,"url":"https://www.espn.com/nhl/game/_/gameId/401892596","why":"While Washington is favored at home, winning by 2+ goals is less common; limited margin data and Philadelphia's occasional competitiveness reduce confidence.","hash":"7fee05e62b9cb082172dc9565818c459740d7f57bed73d931f98770fd41b97c1","note":"Final: Philadelphia Flyers 2, Washington Capitals 5","type":"sports_runline","brier":0.3844,"field":"sports","title":"Will Washington Capitals beat Philadelphia Flyers by 2 or more goals on Oct 28?","domain":null,"outcome":1,"scoreAt":null,"closesAt":1793230200000,"postedAt":null,"typeName":"Win by 2 or more, baseball and hockey","resolveAt":1793240100000,"commentsAt":null,"finalScore":null,"finalValue":3,"resolvedAt":1793243256435,"committedAt":1793117266635},{"p":0.62,"hn":null,"id":"sports_spread:401871058","gen":113,"url":"https://www.espn.com/college-football/game/_/gameId/401871058","why":"Middle Tennessee is favored at home with strong home record and better overall form; margin needed is 3+, but given quality gap and home advantage, probability Middle Tennessee cov","hash":"3988dd09849d2bc9217a709f36709513632ce92c51c3d42864525fd64e262702","note":"Final: Kennesaw State Owls 44, Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders 28","type":"sports_spread","brier":0.3844,"field":"sports","title":"Will Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders beat Kennesaw State Owls by 3 or more points on Oct 28?","domain":null,"outcome":0,"scoreAt":null,"closesAt":1793228400000,"postedAt":null,"typeName":"Winning margin, football and basketball","resolveAt":1793241900000,"commentsAt":null,"finalScore":null,"finalValue":-16,"resolvedAt":1793243256424,"committedAt":1793099266400},{"p":0.4,"hn":null,"id":"sports_spread:401909889","gen":113,"url":"https://www.espn.com/nba/game/_/gameId/401909889","why":"Denver Nuggets are the favorite but have modest road form and the margin needed is 5 points, so probability is below baseline but not very low.","hash":"8c31e9d1d57c9e1e9866f84c3c11173a53ed1d897c0164e485aaf5f6067315e0","note":"Final: Denver Nuggets 104, New Orleans Pelicans 91","type":"sports_spread","brier":0.36,"field":"sports","title":"Will Denver Nuggets beat New Orleans Pelicans by 5 or more points on Oct 28?","domain":null,"outcome":1,"scoreAt":null,"closesAt":1793232000000,"postedAt":null,"typeName":"Winning margin, football and basketball","resolveAt":1793241000000,"commentsAt":null,"finalScore":null,"finalValue":13,"resolvedAt":1793243256415,"committedAt":1793149665213},{"p":0.55,"hn":null,"id":"sports_spread:401909888","gen":113,"url":"https://www.espn.com/nba/game/_/gameId/401909888","why":"Timberwolves are home favorites with strong recent form needing a moderate 4-point margin against Warriors with poor road record; moderate confidence in cover.","hash":"0cadb730c1e7665d7d0c571f77027dacb11fefc8e1f1028193885bdb6f0372a9","note":"Final: Golden State Warriors 119, Minnesota Timberwolves 114","type":"sports_spread","brier":0.30250000000000005,"field":"sports","title":"Will Minnesota Timberwolves beat Golden State Warriors by 4 or more points on Oct 28?","domain":null,"outcome":0,"scoreAt":null,"closesAt":1793232000000,"postedAt":null,"typeName":"Winning margin, football and basketball","resolveAt":1793241000000,"commentsAt":null,"finalScore":null,"finalValue":-5,"resolvedAt":1793243256405,"committedAt":1793146065544},{"p":0.4,"hn":null,"id":"sports_spread:401909887","gen":113,"url":"https://www.espn.com/nba/game/_/gameId/401909887","why":"Houston Rockets are undefeated favorites on the road needing a large 9-point margin against Bucks at home with weak record; Rockets' strong form helps but margin is challenging.","hash":"97c554ae83100678d89a404351532bf6cc71b0f9576db2733f70b8e4335b2e68","note":"Final: Houston Rockets 132, Milwaukee Bucks 100","type":"sports_spread","brier":0.36,"field":"sports","title":"Will Houston Rockets beat Milwaukee Bucks by 9 or more points on Oct 28?","domain":null,"outcome":1,"scoreAt":null,"closesAt":1793232000000,"postedAt":null,"typeName":"Winning margin, football and basketball","resolveAt":1793241000000,"commentsAt":null,"finalScore":null,"finalValue":32,"resolvedAt":1793243256395,"committedAt":1793146065532},{"p":0.25,"hn":null,"id":"sports_spread:401909886","gen":113,"url":"https://www.espn.com/nba/game/_/gameId/401909886","why":"Knicks are underdogs with poor road form and need a large 8-point margin against Bulls at home, who have better home defense; low probability Knicks cover spread.","hash":"47d90ce1e6f95d29fa0fb09c69021c4a92a923424c8aaaffe5808cc9d7bfbf4a","note":"Final: New York Knicks 133, Chicago Bulls 127","type":"sports_spread","brier":0.0625,"field":"sports","title":"Will New York Knicks beat Chicago Bulls by 8 or more points on Oct 28?","domain":null,"outcome":0,"scoreAt":null,"closesAt":1793232000000,"postedAt":null,"typeName":"Winning margin, football and basketball","resolveAt":1793241000000,"commentsAt":null,"finalScore":null,"finalValue":6,"resolvedAt":1793243256383,"committedAt":1793146065521},{"p":0.44,"hn":null,"id":"mls_ml:761915","gen":113,"url":"https://www.espn.com/soccer/game/_/gameId/761915","why":"St. Louis CITY SC has a better record and home advantage, but Portland Timbers' resilience and high draw rate moderate the home win probability.","hash":"d78503b515a75a5d9f7a2a637945a7d9a12e401fd981e37753d08552b335fa47","note":"Final: Portland Timbers 3, St. Louis CITY SC 2","type":"mls_ml","brier":0.1936,"field":"sports","title":"Will St. Louis CITY SC beat Portland Timbers on Oct 28?","domain":null,"outcome":0,"scoreAt":null,"closesAt":1793233800000,"postedAt":null,"typeName":"MLS, home win","resolveAt":1793241000000,"commentsAt":null,"finalScore":null,"finalValue":-1,"resolvedAt":1793243256373,"committedAt":1793113667900},{"p":0.46,"hn":null,"id":"mls_ml:761914","gen":113,"url":"https://www.espn.com/soccer/game/_/gameId/761914","why":"Nashville SC has a stronger overall record and slight home advantage, but Philadelphia Union's solid road form and draw possibility lower the home win chance.","hash":"1fc4c8ccaecc08829ce735f72afec1c682df4eed4293ee38f960382da6909079","note":"Final: Philadelphia Union 0, Nashville SC 0","type":"mls_ml","brier":0.2116,"field":"sports","title":"Will Nashville SC beat Philadelphia Union on Oct 28?","domain":null,"outcome":0,"scoreAt":null,"closesAt":1793233800000,"postedAt":null,"typeName":"MLS, home win","resolveAt":1793241000000,"commentsAt":null,"finalScore":null,"finalValue":0,"resolvedAt":1793243256363,"committedAt":1793113667890},{"p":0.4,"hn":null,"id":"mls_ml:761913","gen":113,"url":"https://www.espn.com/soccer/game/_/gameId/761913","why":"Minnesota United FC's weaker record and Sporting Kansas City's poor away form suggest a lower home win probability, though a draw is likely.","hash":"93b3f63472fd0315963f6a0fd72a9475be44b99f86fffc956ea8308a9337d4fc","note":"Final: Sporting Kansas City 1, Minnesota United FC 3","type":"mls_ml","brier":0.36,"field":"sports","title":"Will Minnesota United FC beat Sporting Kansas City on Oct 28?","domain":null,"outcome":1,"scoreAt":null,"closesAt":1793233800000,"postedAt":null,"typeName":"MLS, home win","resolveAt":1793241000000,"commentsAt":null,"finalScore":null,"finalValue":2,"resolvedAt":1793243256352,"committedAt":1793110068190},{"p":0.23,"hn":null,"id":"btc_day:2026-10-28T03","gen":114,"url":"https://exchange.coinbase.com/trade/BTC-USD","why":"Base rate is 45.9%, but current price is slightly below reference with a small negative intrahour move (-0.014%), 24h momentum is positive but 7d trend is negative, typical daily m","hash":"750de8f0bed3b5c8621ed509654c61828443ba75cf0f3ff3cbd0e56700b47d3c","note":"Coinbase BTC-USD opened at $79,856.27","type":"btc_day","brier":0.0529,"field":"markets","title":"Will Bitcoin trade above $80,817.50 on Coinbase at 03:00 UTC on Oct 29?","domain":null,"outcome":0,"scoreAt":null,"closesAt":1793157760717,"postedAt":null,"typeName":"Bitcoin, 24 hours","resolveAt":1793243100000,"commentsAt":null,"finalScore":null,"finalValue":79856.27,"resolvedAt":1793243256239,"committedAt":1793156865434},{"p":0.23,"hn":null,"id":"btc_day:2026-10-28T02","gen":114,"url":"https://exchange.coinbase.com/trade/BTC-USD","why":"Base rate is 45.8%, but current price is slightly below reference with a small negative intrahour move (-0.09%), 24h momentum is modestly positive (+1.13%) but 7d trend is negative","hash":"ac8098b93320fb3f0901f8f7fae6cd3f3f21e58decc4e2bff5c8892fe4750146","note":"Coinbase BTC-USD opened at $79,903.99","type":"btc_day","brier":0.0529,"field":"markets","title":"Will Bitcoin trade above $80,826.39 on Coinbase at 02:00 UTC on Oct 29?","domain":null,"outcome":0,"scoreAt":null,"closesAt":1793154159034,"postedAt":null,"typeName":"Bitcoin, 24 hours","resolveAt":1793239500000,"commentsAt":null,"finalScore":null,"finalValue":79903.99,"resolvedAt":1793239656292,"committedAt":1793153263028},{"p":0.23,"hn":null,"id":"btc_day:2026-10-28T01","gen":114,"url":"https://exchange.coinbase.com/trade/BTC-USD","why":"Base rate is 45.7%, but price is currently 0.12% below reference with a 1.41% typical daily move, placing threshold just inside -0.5 expected moves; 24h and 7d momentum mixed and w","hash":"a7caa85804f6f25bb05ae266b05ac8a72a73011dc2ea5012a7cdb46add793c76","note":"Coinbase BTC-USD opened at $81,000.00","type":"btc_day","brier":0.5929,"field":"markets","title":"Will Bitcoin trade above $80,633.88 on Coinbase at 01:00 UTC on Oct 29?","domain":null,"outcome":1,"scoreAt":null,"closesAt":1793150559274,"postedAt":null,"typeName":"Bitcoin, 24 hours","resolveAt":1793235900000,"commentsAt":null,"finalScore":null,"finalValue":81000,"resolvedAt":1793236056249,"committedAt":1793149665190},{"p":0.41,"hn":null,"id":"btc_day:2026-10-28T00","gen":114,"url":"https://exchange.coinbase.com/trade/BTC-USD","why":"Base rate is 45.6%, 24h momentum is +0.99% but 7d trend is -2.58%, opposing directions cancel updates, price is slightly below reference (-0.17%), typical daily move is 1.41%, so r","hash":"7fc6ea879ae205418d0b60a7703ca6a63f6c960161d843420c2ac257b8ea60fb","note":"Coinbase BTC-USD opened at $81,249.32","type":"btc_day","brier":0.3481000000000001,"field":"markets","title":"Will Bitcoin trade above $80,799.50 on Coinbase at 00:00 UTC on Oct 29?","domain":null,"outcome":1,"scoreAt":null,"closesAt":1793146959399,"postedAt":null,"typeName":"Bitcoin, 24 hours","resolveAt":1793232300000,"commentsAt":null,"finalScore":null,"finalValue":81249.32,"resolvedAt":1793232456077,"committedAt":1793146065470},{"p":0.45,"hn":null,"id":"btc_day:2026-10-27T23","gen":114,"url":"https://exchange.coinbase.com/trade/BTC-USD","why":"Base rate 45.5%; 24h momentum +1.16% and 7d trend -2.67% oppose each other, so no combined momentum signal; threshold is at reference price, small positive move so far but within t","hash":"7c95533117dcadd71f4dca8c345ce28b844411e60b38c150e7d5fbc146ac0de8","note":"Coinbase BTC-USD opened at $81,183.47","type":"btc_day","brier":0.30250000000000005,"field":"markets","title":"Will Bitcoin trade above $80,792.37 on Coinbase at 23:00 UTC on Oct 28?","domain":null,"outcome":1,"scoreAt":null,"closesAt":1793143360128,"postedAt":null,"typeName":"Bitcoin, 24 hours","resolveAt":1793228700000,"commentsAt":null,"finalScore":null,"finalValue":81183.47,"resolvedAt":1793228856222,"committedAt":1793142466149},{"p":0.39,"hn":null,"id":"kalshi_spx:KXINXU-26OCT28H1600-T7744.9999","gen":114,"url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxinxu","why":"Base rate is 48%, threshold is 0.083% above reference, about 0.13 expected moves away, a modest gap; reference price is fresh (0.1h old), typical daily move is 0.64%, and 3.9 hours","hash":"6ea6e75d803b27286c5b182fbe996123640901bae3953fd0b84e184877a9bac3","note":"Kalshi settled KXINXU-26OCT28H1600-T7744.9999 NO at 7743.9800","type":"kalshi_spx","brier":0.1521,"field":"markets","title":"Will the S&P 500 close at or above 7,745 on Oct 28?","domain":null,"outcome":0,"scoreAt":null,"closesAt":1793204561830,"postedAt":null,"typeName":"S&P 500 close","resolveAt":1793228400000,"commentsAt":null,"finalScore":null,"finalValue":7743.98,"resolvedAt":1793228856208,"committedAt":1793203672524},{"p":0.48,"hn":null,"id":"kalshi_spx:KXINXU-26OCT28H1600-T7724.9999","gen":114,"url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxinxu","why":"Base rate is 48%, threshold is very close (0.03% above reference), less than 0.5 expected moves away, reference is 4.1 hours old reducing update magnitude, and 6.5 trading hours re","hash":"203b25d2b97dc16a52553fbd39fa5d68e40da66c23fff25ad7e2cf27a1eb35c1","note":"Kalshi settled KXINXU-26OCT28H1600-T7724.9999 YES at 7743.9800","type":"kalshi_spx","brier":0.27040000000000003,"field":"markets","title":"Will the S&P 500 close at or above 7,725 on Oct 28?","domain":null,"outcome":1,"scoreAt":null,"closesAt":1793146959399,"postedAt":null,"typeName":"S&P 500 close","resolveAt":1793228400000,"commentsAt":null,"finalScore":null,"finalValue":7743.98,"resolvedAt":1793228856193,"committedAt":1793146065456},{"p":0.48,"hn":null,"id":"kalshi_spx:KXINXU-26OCT28H1600-T7729.9999","gen":114,"url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxinxu","why":"Base rate is 48%; threshold is very close at 0.15 expected moves above reference, with moderate freshness and 20.9 hours left, so no strong signal to update from base rate.","hash":"1cce7091bf30c4f5bdd17dfb5d5e9ca43d1536f66d99d770346e85d0e8c9d185","note":"Kalshi settled KXINXU-26OCT28H1600-T7729.9999 YES at 7743.9800","type":"kalshi_spx","brier":0.27040000000000003,"field":"markets","title":"Will the S&P 500 close at or above 7,730 on Oct 28?","domain":null,"outcome":1,"scoreAt":null,"closesAt":1793143360128,"postedAt":null,"typeName":"S&P 500 close","resolveAt":1793228400000,"commentsAt":null,"finalScore":null,"finalValue":7743.98,"resolvedAt":1793228856179,"committedAt":1793142466134},{"p":0.23,"hn":null,"id":"kalshi_spx:KXINXU-26OCT28H1600-T7734.9999","gen":114,"url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxinxu","why":"The threshold is 0.76% above the previous close, about 1.2 expected daily moves away, with a 24-hour-old reference reducing update magnitude; base rate is 45.1%, but the gap beyond","hash":"126e1cd1962842c4a8b4dc5383994dc9aaaa7bb0d63d99cbb1fe784f2b8d3f10","note":"Kalshi settled KXINXU-26OCT28H1600-T7734.9999 YES at 7743.9800","type":"kalshi_spx","brier":0.5929,"field":"markets","title":"Will the S&P 500 close at or above 7,735 on Oct 28?","domain":null,"outcome":1,"scoreAt":null,"closesAt":1793132560509,"postedAt":null,"typeName":"S&P 500 close","resolveAt":1793228400000,"commentsAt":null,"finalScore":null,"finalValue":7743.98,"resolvedAt":1793228856164,"committedAt":1793131674604},{"p":0.23,"hn":null,"id":"kalshi_spx:KXINXU-26OCT28H1600-T7749.9999","gen":114,"url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxinxu","why":"Base rate is 48%, threshold is 0.355% above reference, about 0.55 expected moves away, reference is old (17.1h), so update magnitude halved; time left is 6.5h (about 0.8 trading da","hash":"103215be998a70f09624ce6440c0a0e559d788a9f58a65423f89312f1afeb72b","note":"Kalshi settled KXINXU-26OCT28H1600-T7749.9999 NO at 7743.9800","type":"kalshi_spx","brier":0.0529,"field":"markets","title":"Will the S&P 500 close at or above 7,750 on Oct 28?","domain":null,"outcome":0,"scoreAt":null,"closesAt":1793193760843,"postedAt":null,"typeName":"S&P 500 close","resolveAt":1793228400000,"commentsAt":null,"finalScore":null,"finalValue":7743.98,"resolvedAt":1793228856150,"committedAt":1793192865704},{"p":0.38,"hn":null,"id":"kalshi_spx:KXINXU-26OCT28H1600-T7739.9999","gen":114,"url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxinxu","why":"The threshold is 0.225% above the previous close with 6.5 trading hours left, about 0.5 expected daily moves away; reference price is 12 hours old reducing update magnitude; base r","hash":"0e8ac4094d744e1ccd0430a13f0e56131d960341b0cc18b817821a05f2df7c74","note":"Kalshi settled KXINXU-26OCT28H1600-T7739.9999 YES at 7743.9800","type":"kalshi_spx","brier":0.3844,"field":"markets","title":"Will the S&P 500 close at or above 7,740 on Oct 28?","domain":null,"outcome":1,"scoreAt":null,"closesAt":1793175758917,"postedAt":null,"typeName":"S&P 500 close","resolveAt":1793228400000,"commentsAt":null,"finalScore":null,"finalValue":7743.98,"resolvedAt":1793228856133,"committedAt":1793174863949},{"p":0.46,"hn":null,"id":"btc_day:2026-10-27T22","gen":114,"url":"https://exchange.coinbase.com/trade/BTC-USD","why":"Base rate is 45.4%; price is slightly above reference with 0.043% move, well within typical daily volatility of 1.41%, indicating weak momentum; 24h and 7d trends mixed (1.02% up, ","hash":"f43e563bd7a3d3b655a3aacd8210ac38a48e69024b0f3b22f75463f22e9d1c98","note":"Coinbase BTC-USD opened at $81,266.56","type":"btc_day","brier":0.2916,"field":"markets","title":"Will Bitcoin trade above $80,782.53 on Coinbase at 22:00 UTC on Oct 28?","domain":null,"outcome":1,"scoreAt":null,"closesAt":1793139759794,"postedAt":null,"typeName":"Bitcoin, 24 hours","resolveAt":1793225100000,"commentsAt":null,"finalScore":null,"finalValue":81266.56,"resolvedAt":1793225256266,"committedAt":1793138865374},{"p":0.58,"hn":null,"id":"kalshi_eth:KXETHD-26OCT2817-T2339.99","gen":114,"url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxethd","why":"Ether is slightly above threshold by 0.15% with expected move to fix at 2.07%, and 24-hour momentum is positive at 1.79%; strong expected move coverage and positive momentum justif","hash":"428a27fd08bfb58b610f51c344af582aad67146f59552f147ee328fd48f91194","note":"Kalshi settled KXETHD-26OCT2817-T2339.99 YES at 2358.64","type":"kalshi_eth","brier":0.17640000000000003,"field":"markets","title":"Will Ether be at or above $2,340 at 5pm ET on Oct 28?","domain":null,"outcome":1,"scoreAt":null,"closesAt":1793132560509,"postedAt":null,"typeName":"Ether at 5pm ET","resolveAt":1793222100000,"commentsAt":null,"finalScore":null,"finalValue":2358.64,"resolvedAt":1793225256254,"committedAt":1793131674657},{"p":0.56,"hn":null,"id":"kalshi_eth:KXETHD-26OCT2817-T2379.99","gen":114,"url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxethd","why":"Threshold is 0.889% above spot with expected move to fix at 1.31%, covering 68% of the gap, slightly below 75% coverage needed for full update; 24h momentum is +2.13%, positive but","hash":"150721a72440d319c91543eeb5de2e012cd2da7d6d50d421f70d88638e07f4c5","note":"Kalshi settled KXETHD-26OCT2817-T2379.99 NO at 2358.64","type":"kalshi_eth","brier":0.31360000000000005,"field":"markets","title":"Will Ether be at or above $2,380 at 5pm ET on Oct 28?","domain":null,"outcome":0,"scoreAt":null,"closesAt":1793175758917,"postedAt":null,"typeName":"Ether at 5pm ET","resolveAt":1793222100000,"commentsAt":null,"finalScore":null,"finalValue":2358.64,"resolvedAt":1793225256242,"committedAt":1793174863964},{"p":0.55,"hn":null,"id":"kalshi_btc:KXBTCD-26OCT2817-T79999.99","gen":114,"url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxbtcd","why":"Bitcoin is currently 0.83% above the threshold with 1.55 expected hourly moves left, and 24-hour momentum is positive at 1.19%; strong coverage of threshold gap and fresh spot supp","hash":"5750bd27c334fb6c13e8e4d7c49f16adea1bee2a972f711a40cf8a4cdd826cec","note":"Kalshi settled KXBTCD-26OCT2817-T79999.99 YES at 81250.43","type":"kalshi_btc","brier":0.20249999999999996,"field":"markets","title":"Will Bitcoin be at or above $80,000 at 5pm ET on Oct 28?","domain":null,"outcome":1,"scoreAt":null,"closesAt":1793132560509,"postedAt":null,"typeName":"Bitcoin at 5pm ET","resolveAt":1793222100000,"commentsAt":null,"finalScore":null,"finalValue":81250.43,"resolvedAt":1793225256226,"committedAt":1793131674640},{"p":0.23,"hn":null,"id":"btc_day:2026-10-27T21","gen":114,"url":"https://exchange.coinbase.com/trade/BTC-USD","why":"Base rate is 45.3%, but current price is slightly below reference with a -0.019% move this hour, typical daily volatility is 1.41%, so threshold is within 0.01 expected moves; 24h ","hash":"ba99a7d2a36f558458e26ed16a20cd216287201801953b658a3b88eb0feceead","note":"Coinbase BTC-USD opened at $81,259.82","type":"btc_day","brier":0.5929,"field":"markets","title":"Will Bitcoin trade above $80,670.98 on Coinbase at 21:00 UTC on Oct 28?","domain":null,"outcome":1,"scoreAt":null,"closesAt":1793136159866,"postedAt":null,"typeName":"Bitcoin, 24 hours","resolveAt":1793221500000,"commentsAt":null,"finalScore":null,"finalValue":81259.82,"resolvedAt":1793221656045,"committedAt":1793135263833},{"p":0.23,"hn":null,"id":"poly_pol:2589812","gen":21,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/fed-decision-in-october-20260617190323537","why":"Given the long horizon to October 2026 and typical Fed rate adjustments over multi-year periods, a change in rates is more likely than no change, so the probability of no change is","hash":"86d794dab2aa0ef63274c451a707090ead35855beb2daaf1129763c947b05f29","note":"Polymarket resolved YES","type":"poly_pol","brier":0.5929,"field":"policy","title":"Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?","domain":null,"outcome":1,"scoreAt":null,"closesAt":1793041659626,"postedAt":null,"typeName":"Polymarket, politics","resolveAt":1793045259626,"commentsAt":null,"finalScore":null,"finalValue":1,"resolvedAt":1793218056440,"committedAt":1793038064145},{"p":0.48,"hn":null,"id":"ust10y:2026-10-27","gen":114,"url":"https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve","why":"10-year yield just at 4.99%, recent small declines in yield, and daily upward moves occur about 50.8% of the time; no strong signal to deviate from base rate 48%.","hash":"b658331ab33524b9a935a9e450cfe40b4a322b8d9a47c1e9f671e4f146c6e186","note":"The 10-year yield for Oct 28 was 5.05%","type":"ust10y","brier":0.27040000000000003,"field":"markets","title":"Will the next 10-year Treasury yield Treasury publishes after Oct 27 be above 4.99%?","domain":null,"outcome":1,"scoreAt":null,"closesAt":1793135260509,"postedAt":null,"typeName":"10-year Treasury yield","resolveAt":1793167660509,"commentsAt":null,"finalScore":null,"finalValue":5.05,"resolvedAt":1793218056423,"committedAt":1793131674692},{"p":0.45,"hn":null,"id":"btc_day:2026-10-27T20","gen":114,"url":"https://exchange.coinbase.com/trade/BTC-USD","why":"Bitcoin is slightly below reference price by 0.05% with typical daily move of 1.42%, 24-hour momentum positive but 7-day trend negative, so no consistent momentum; base rate 45.2% ","hash":"cc7a87ae8821910e89cc730fd9978523e46747851aeb7afa6ef08f0e7900895a","note":"Coinbase BTC-USD opened at $81,502.09","type":"btc_day","brier":0.30250000000000005,"field":"markets","title":"Will Bitcoin trade above $80,706.76 on Coinbase at 20:00 UTC on Oct 28?","domain":null,"outcome":1,"scoreAt":null,"closesAt":1793132560509,"postedAt":null,"typeName":"Bitcoin, 24 hours","resolveAt":1793217900000,"commentsAt":null,"finalScore":null,"finalValue":81502.09,"resolvedAt":1793218056404,"committedAt":1793131674674},{"p":0.23,"hn":null,"id":"btc_day:2026-10-27T19","gen":114,"url":"https://exchange.coinbase.com/trade/BTC-USD","why":"Base rate is 45%, but the threshold is at the reference price, and the spot is slightly above it with a small positive move this hour (0.143%), typical daily move is 1.42%, so thre","hash":"32e2ab07972da814f008ab3a447edb32dcab7ae7c5b2571645552eaabdc50b4e","note":"Coinbase BTC-USD opened at $80,931.79","type":"btc_day","brier":0.5929,"field":"markets","title":"Will Bitcoin trade above $80,509.27 on Coinbase at 19:00 UTC on Oct 28?","domain":null,"outcome":1,"scoreAt":null,"closesAt":1793128959620,"postedAt":null,"typeName":"Bitcoin, 24 hours","resolveAt":1793214300000,"commentsAt":null,"finalScore":null,"finalValue":80931.79,"resolvedAt":1793214456432,"committedAt":1793128061739},{"p":0.23,"hn":null,"id":"btc_day:2026-10-27T18","gen":114,"url":"https://exchange.coinbase.com/trade/BTC-USD","why":"Base rate is 44.9%, but the threshold is exactly at reference price, so distance is zero expected moves; 24h momentum is +0.25% (below 1%), 7d trend is -2.83% (negative), so no str","hash":"1a43990380d32051395aec47f0abddbeaa0b654271deb6af767041bacf32d45a","note":"Coinbase BTC-USD opened at $80,748.03","type":"btc_day","brier":0.5929,"field":"markets","title":"Will Bitcoin trade above $80,393.82 on Coinbase at 18:00 UTC on Oct 28?","domain":null,"outcome":1,"scoreAt":null,"closesAt":1793125360140,"postedAt":null,"typeName":"Bitcoin, 24 hours","resolveAt":1793210700000,"commentsAt":null,"finalScore":null,"finalValue":80748.03,"resolvedAt":1793210856855,"committedAt":1793124463980},{"p":0.44,"hn":null,"id":"poly:6015149","gen":114,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/bitcoin-above-on-october-28-2026","why":"Base rate for poly is 44.3%; 8.9 hours to end with moderate volume; price currently below $82,000 at $80,767; 24h momentum positive but small; no price or momentum signal strong en","hash":"bf90757dc1f23f2b05b38e678b1e11946ee0b73bf7cdf78a9e8539bccce9ada7","note":"Polymarket resolved NO","type":"poly","brier":0.1936,"field":"markets","title":"Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on October 28?","domain":null,"outcome":0,"scoreAt":null,"closesAt":1793174858149,"postedAt":null,"typeName":"Polymarket, finance and crypto","resolveAt":1793178458149,"commentsAt":null,"finalScore":null,"finalValue":0,"resolvedAt":1793207257151,"committedAt":1793171262547},{"p":0.44,"hn":null,"id":"poly:6015126","gen":114,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/ethereum-above-on-october-28-2026","why":"Base rate is 44.3%, spot price is $2329.56 below $2400 threshold, about -3.5 expected daily moves away, positive 24h momentum of 1.31% but no strong 7d trend data; time to resoluti","hash":"253684ee02d3370a7a4b7f249d8eac174a3e359c489106a9b02d5d7b2124cdca","note":"Polymarket resolved NO","type":"poly","brier":0.1936,"field":"markets","title":"Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on October 28?","domain":null,"outcome":0,"scoreAt":null,"closesAt":1793110060218,"postedAt":null,"typeName":"Polymarket, finance and crypto","resolveAt":1793113660218,"commentsAt":null,"finalScore":null,"finalValue":0,"resolvedAt":1793207257134,"committedAt":1793106467284},{"p":0.44,"hn":null,"id":"btc_day:2026-10-27T17","gen":114,"url":"https://exchange.coinbase.com/trade/BTC-USD","why":"Base rate 44.8%; 24h momentum +0.55% and 7d trend -2.6% oppose each other, so no combined momentum update; price slightly down -0.056% this hour; threshold at reference price; typi","hash":"85bc0ee2d120febc4589a626a2dd818f2ff9cf890ed1d22aa79ecb7748be42aa","note":"Coinbase BTC-USD opened at $80,494.11","type":"btc_day","brier":0.1936,"field":"markets","title":"Will Bitcoin trade above $80,540.80 on Coinbase at 17:00 UTC on Oct 28?","domain":null,"outcome":0,"scoreAt":null,"closesAt":1793121761005,"postedAt":null,"typeName":"Bitcoin, 24 hours","resolveAt":1793207100000,"commentsAt":null,"finalScore":null,"finalValue":80494.11,"resolvedAt":1793207257113,"committedAt":1793120866576},{"p":0.44,"hn":null,"id":"poly:2941850","gen":114,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/bank-of-canada-decision-in-october-20260715203359314","why":"Base rate is 44.9%, no price or threshold data; volume is moderate; 22.9 hours to end; no direct signal from data to update probability; revert to base rate with slight pull down d","hash":"135176b1ee3e531b7b50b8fa9235e8f0efe4d9e702e2bb0d8535a8efdb00b3c9","note":"Polymarket resolved NO","type":"poly","brier":0.1936,"field":"markets","title":"Will the Bank of Canada make no change to the target for the overnight rate at the October interest rate announcement?","domain":null,"outcome":0,"scoreAt":null,"closesAt":1793066860066,"postedAt":null,"typeName":"Polymarket, finance and crypto","resolveAt":1793070460066,"commentsAt":null,"finalScore":null,"finalValue":0,"resolvedAt":1793203656785,"committedAt":1793063265617},{"p":0.48,"hn":null,"id":"poly:2941849","gen":108,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/bank-of-canada-decision-in-october-20260715203359314","why":"Base rate is 48.4%, with 71.9 hours to end and significant volume; no strong directional signal from data, so probability remains near base rate with slight downward adjustment due","hash":"c9f49a24dca0336e7d7ea11a3928c1985ac8e344ada7378e630a04100a5e8e8f","note":"Polymarket resolved YES","type":"poly","brier":0.27040000000000003,"field":"markets","title":"Will the Bank of Canada increase the target for the overnight rate by 25 bps at the October interest rate announcement?","domain":null,"outcome":1,"scoreAt":null,"closesAt":1792890459927,"postedAt":null,"typeName":"Polymarket, finance and crypto","resolveAt":1792894059927,"commentsAt":null,"finalScore":null,"finalValue":1,"resolvedAt":1793203656768,"committedAt":1792886864378},{"p":0.44,"hn":null,"id":"btc_day:2026-10-27T16","gen":114,"url":"https://exchange.coinbase.com/trade/BTC-USD","why":"Base rate 44.7%, price down 0.059% this hour, 24h momentum +0.17%, 7d trend -2.52%, conflicting signals, typical daily move 1.42%, threshold near reference, so no strong momentum, ","hash":"f555004f19f8b63040aed907fcfebf4fb0bd7d3850b05df10e943fcf98a4faae","note":"Coinbase BTC-USD opened at $80,434.80","type":"btc_day","brier":0.31360000000000005,"field":"markets","title":"Will Bitcoin trade above $80,434.18 on Coinbase at 16:00 UTC on Oct 28?","domain":null,"outcome":1,"scoreAt":null,"closesAt":1793118160013,"postedAt":null,"typeName":"Bitcoin, 24 hours","resolveAt":1793203500000,"commentsAt":null,"finalScore":null,"finalValue":80434.8,"resolvedAt":1793203656751,"committedAt":1793117266614},{"p":0.38,"hn":null,"id":"btc_day:2026-10-27T15","gen":114,"url":"https://exchange.coinbase.com/trade/BTC-USD","why":"Base rate 44.6%, 24h and 7d momentum both negative (-0.06% and -3.55%), typical daily move 1.45%, price slightly below reference (-0.001%), so momentum supports downside, reducing ","hash":"b3a83f99a0bbf84295d961a93a93fc5ba3a51bcfe1d3c170a17830639952ce88","note":"Coinbase BTC-USD opened at $80,479.32","type":"btc_day","brier":0.3844,"field":"markets","title":"Will Bitcoin trade above $80,223.90 on Coinbase at 15:00 UTC on Oct 28?","domain":null,"outcome":1,"scoreAt":null,"closesAt":1793114561913,"postedAt":null,"typeName":"Bitcoin, 24 hours","resolveAt":1793199900000,"commentsAt":null,"finalScore":null,"finalValue":80479.32,"resolvedAt":1793200056352,"committedAt":1793113667872},{"p":0.45,"hn":null,"id":"btc_day:2026-10-27T14","gen":114,"url":"https://exchange.coinbase.com/trade/BTC-USD","why":"Base rate for btc_day is 44.7%; price is slightly above reference with minimal 0.036% change, 24h momentum +0.43% but 7d trend negative -2.6%, typical daily move 1.53% means thresh","hash":"a2a7ed6baffd564baec403bb86ffc9a5d0103f27e0921629fb3104fac44ca136","note":"Coinbase BTC-USD opened at $80,603.34","type":"btc_day","brier":0.30250000000000005,"field":"markets","title":"Will Bitcoin trade above $79,906.93 on Coinbase at 14:00 UTC on Oct 28?","domain":null,"outcome":1,"scoreAt":null,"closesAt":1793110961783,"postedAt":null,"typeName":"Bitcoin, 24 hours","resolveAt":1793196300000,"commentsAt":null,"finalScore":null,"finalValue":80603.34,"resolvedAt":1793196456392,"committedAt":1793110068117},{"p":0.23,"hn":null,"id":"btc_day:2026-10-27T13","gen":114,"url":"https://exchange.coinbase.com/trade/BTC-USD","why":"Base rate is 44.6%, but current spot is 0.18% below reference price with a slight negative 24h and 7d momentum; threshold is at reference price, about -0.12 expected daily moves aw","hash":"5eb188b9a36b6326243a9362beaabc9ff23f9448edcc51ef22cd93f4eac697f8","note":"Coinbase BTC-USD opened at $80,608.49","type":"btc_day","brier":0.5929,"field":"markets","title":"Will Bitcoin trade above $80,228.81 on Coinbase at 13:00 UTC on Oct 28?","domain":null,"outcome":1,"scoreAt":null,"closesAt":1793107360218,"postedAt":null,"typeName":"Bitcoin, 24 hours","resolveAt":1793192700000,"commentsAt":null,"finalScore":null,"finalValue":80608.49,"resolvedAt":1793192856141,"committedAt":1793106467251},{"p":0.23,"hn":null,"id":"btc_day:2026-10-27T12","gen":114,"url":"https://exchange.coinbase.com/trade/BTC-USD","why":"Base rate is 44.5%, but current price is slightly below reference with a small negative 24h and 7d trend; threshold is at reference price, about -0.05% change so far, less than 0.5","hash":"38401f47a4f1ecc930f4a58277efda22dada7d7416cf664064dca6d805257979","note":"Coinbase BTC-USD opened at $81,215.30","type":"btc_day","brier":0.5929,"field":"markets","title":"Will Bitcoin trade above $79,760.39 on Coinbase at 12:00 UTC on Oct 28?","domain":null,"outcome":1,"scoreAt":null,"closesAt":1793103759751,"postedAt":null,"typeName":"Bitcoin, 24 hours","resolveAt":1793189100000,"commentsAt":null,"finalScore":null,"finalValue":81215.3,"resolvedAt":1793189256593,"committedAt":1793102866731},{"p":0.52,"hn":null,"id":"btc_day:2026-10-27T11","gen":114,"url":"https://exchange.coinbase.com/trade/BTC-USD","why":"Base rate is 44.6%, spot is slightly above reference price with a small positive move this hour (0.16%) but below typical daily volatility (1.53%), 24h and 7d trends are negative, ","hash":"f501f6f73c8270277ce6aa02a0f3453df2be081d6363ad9c2653498de1bd5fc5","note":"Coinbase BTC-USD opened at $81,372.38","type":"btc_day","brier":0.2304,"field":"markets","title":"Will Bitcoin trade above $79,817.25 on Coinbase at 11:00 UTC on Oct 28?","domain":null,"outcome":1,"scoreAt":null,"closesAt":1793100159442,"postedAt":null,"typeName":"Bitcoin, 24 hours","resolveAt":1793185500000,"commentsAt":null,"finalScore":null,"finalValue":81372.38,"resolvedAt":1793185656431,"committedAt":1793099266338},{"p":0.23,"hn":null,"id":"btc_day:2026-10-27T10","gen":114,"url":"https://exchange.coinbase.com/trade/BTC-USD","why":"Base rate is 44.7%, but current price is slightly below reference and has moved down 0.185% this hour; 24h and 7d trends are negative beyond 1%, indicating downward momentum; thres","hash":"c4b6878c560720e7ee46718183fbada901a92b06c9ece55f93bf98580782029f","note":"Coinbase BTC-USD opened at $81,435.58","type":"btc_day","brier":0.5929,"field":"markets","title":"Will Bitcoin trade above $79,634.31 on Coinbase at 10:00 UTC on Oct 28?","domain":null,"outcome":1,"scoreAt":null,"closesAt":1793096558438,"postedAt":null,"typeName":"Bitcoin, 24 hours","resolveAt":1793181900000,"commentsAt":null,"finalScore":null,"finalValue":81435.58,"resolvedAt":1793182056660,"committedAt":1793095660036},{"p":0.4,"hn":null,"id":"btc_day:2026-10-27T09","gen":114,"url":"https://exchange.coinbase.com/trade/BTC-USD","why":"Bitcoin shows negative 24h (-0.48%) and 7d (-2.09%) momentum, both exceeding -1% in the same direction, indicating downward trend; price is slightly below reference and typical dai","hash":"241a1a245138df8b4a3115c680923e1738e1c2d0fd8dae48a269111a920f90c9","note":"Coinbase BTC-USD opened at $81,362.25","type":"btc_day","brier":0.36,"field":"markets","title":"Will Bitcoin trade above $79,726.54 on Coinbase at 09:00 UTC on Oct 28?","domain":null,"outcome":1,"scoreAt":null,"closesAt":1793092956849,"postedAt":null,"typeName":"Bitcoin, 24 hours","resolveAt":1793178300000,"commentsAt":null,"finalScore":null,"finalValue":81362.25,"resolvedAt":1793178456826,"committedAt":1793092061310},{"p":0.23,"hn":null,"id":"btc_day:2026-10-27T08","gen":114,"url":"https://exchange.coinbase.com/trade/BTC-USD","why":"Base rate is 44.8%, but the threshold is at the reference price itself, so distance is zero expected moves; 24h and 7d momentum are both negative (-0.31% and -2.21%), indicating do","hash":"83c0d73f4be671cc43971f70fa9c5ef29e79f84a949e04b700b7f7032a490bcf","note":"Coinbase BTC-USD opened at $80,969.36","type":"btc_day","brier":0.5929,"field":"markets","title":"Will Bitcoin trade above $79,662.78 on Coinbase at 08:00 UTC on Oct 28?","domain":null,"outcome":1,"scoreAt":null,"closesAt":1793089358690,"postedAt":null,"typeName":"Bitcoin, 24 hours","resolveAt":1793174700000,"commentsAt":null,"finalScore":null,"finalValue":80969.36,"resolvedAt":1793174856627,"committedAt":1793088462578},{"p":0.4,"hn":null,"id":"btc_day:2026-10-27T07","gen":114,"url":"https://exchange.coinbase.com/trade/BTC-USD","why":"Base rate 44.9%, 24h and 7d momentum both negative (-0.61% and -2.68%), no strong positive momentum, threshold at reference price with negligible price change since reference, typi","hash":"849312760286b865b16bfc07b3e0f446f81e34d346c4c7d88d856d05343a86a7","note":"Coinbase BTC-USD opened at $80,754.52","type":"btc_day","brier":0.36,"field":"markets","title":"Will Bitcoin trade above $79,515.93 on Coinbase at 07:00 UTC on Oct 28?","domain":null,"outcome":1,"scoreAt":null,"closesAt":1793085759638,"postedAt":null,"typeName":"Bitcoin, 24 hours","resolveAt":1793171100000,"commentsAt":null,"finalScore":null,"finalValue":80754.52,"resolvedAt":1793171256398,"committedAt":1793084864299},{"p":0.23,"hn":null,"id":"btc_day:2026-10-27T06","gen":114,"url":"https://exchange.coinbase.com/trade/BTC-USD","why":"Base rate is 45%, but current price is slightly below reference and 24h and 7d momentum are negative; threshold is at reference price so zero expected move distance; price freshnes","hash":"1a09249bbc766563f7b018e77170cea9d5e699508eea19dcec0812908413717a","note":"Coinbase BTC-USD opened at $80,781.10","type":"btc_day","brier":0.5929,"field":"markets","title":"Will Bitcoin trade above $79,828.72 on Coinbase at 06:00 UTC on Oct 28?","domain":null,"outcome":1,"scoreAt":null,"closesAt":1793082159398,"postedAt":null,"typeName":"Bitcoin, 24 hours","resolveAt":1793167500000,"commentsAt":null,"finalScore":null,"finalValue":80781.1,"resolvedAt":1793167656292,"committedAt":1793081264040},{"p":0.23,"hn":null,"id":"btc_day:2026-10-27T05","gen":114,"url":"https://exchange.coinbase.com/trade/BTC-USD","why":"Base rate is 45.1%, but BTC is currently slightly above the threshold price with only 0.09% move this hour, 24h and 7d trends are negative (-0.5% and -2.9%), typical daily volatili","hash":"f1d2334168f0f18354aea0b11b3c26015502401a9210bf681f71268d90862e50","note":"Coinbase BTC-USD opened at $80,873.62","type":"btc_day","brier":0.5929,"field":"markets","title":"Will Bitcoin trade above $79,607.24 on Coinbase at 05:00 UTC on Oct 28?","domain":null,"outcome":1,"scoreAt":null,"closesAt":1793078559338,"postedAt":null,"typeName":"Bitcoin, 24 hours","resolveAt":1793163900000,"commentsAt":null,"finalScore":null,"finalValue":80873.62,"resolvedAt":1793164056272,"committedAt":1793077663338},{"p":0.42,"hn":null,"id":"btc_day:2026-10-27T04","gen":114,"url":"https://exchange.coinbase.com/trade/BTC-USD","why":"Base rate is 45.2%, price is slightly below reference with a small negative intrahour move (-0.021%), 24h momentum mildly positive (+0.26%) but 7d trend negative (-2.86%), typical ","hash":"6147aae41e9b11cb4ec0da8e908ce359a5dc3fdbd30773f8bac3b31e7ed02872","note":"Coinbase BTC-USD opened at $81,023.78","type":"btc_day","brier":0.3364000000000001,"field":"markets","title":"Will Bitcoin trade above $79,685.80 on Coinbase at 04:00 UTC on Oct 28?","domain":null,"outcome":1,"scoreAt":null,"closesAt":1793074958596,"postedAt":null,"typeName":"Bitcoin, 24 hours","resolveAt":1793160300000,"commentsAt":null,"finalScore":null,"finalValue":81023.78,"resolvedAt":1793160456063,"committedAt":1793074062994},{"p":0.45,"hn":null,"id":"btc_day:2026-10-27T03","gen":114,"url":"https://exchange.coinbase.com/trade/BTC-USD","why":"Bitcoin is slightly below reference price with a small negative intrahour move (-0.079%) and mixed 24h (0.27%) and 7d (-2.46%) trends, typical daily move is 1.54%, and 24h horizon;","hash":"fd56154e1fdc8edf9dd22f4606cbacadd503a0ec961f265cd04b0166b20b28bb","note":"Coinbase BTC-USD opened at $80,817.50","type":"btc_day","brier":0.30250000000000005,"field":"markets","title":"Will Bitcoin trade above $79,674.59 on Coinbase at 03:00 UTC on Oct 28?","domain":null,"outcome":1,"scoreAt":null,"closesAt":1793071359700,"postedAt":null,"typeName":"Bitcoin, 24 hours","resolveAt":1793156700000,"commentsAt":null,"finalScore":null,"finalValue":80817.5,"resolvedAt":1793156857239,"committedAt":1793070463868},{"p":0.45,"hn":null,"id":"btc_day:2026-10-27T02","gen":114,"url":"https://exchange.coinbase.com/trade/BTC-USD","why":"Base rate is 45%, price is slightly below reference (-0.093%), 24h momentum is +0.36% but 7d trend is -2.16%, conflicting signals; typical daily move is 1.53%, threshold is at refe","hash":"003bbdb9b0895ff66644d59c7750a456a22230fb9f7141b12e473bf3612bff4c","note":"Coinbase BTC-USD opened at $80,826.39","type":"btc_day","brier":0.30250000000000005,"field":"markets","title":"Will Bitcoin trade above $79,926.77 on Coinbase at 02:00 UTC on Oct 28?","domain":null,"outcome":1,"scoreAt":null,"closesAt":1793067759938,"postedAt":null,"typeName":"Bitcoin, 24 hours","resolveAt":1793153100000,"commentsAt":null,"finalScore":null,"finalValue":80826.39,"resolvedAt":1793153256034,"committedAt":1793066865513},{"p":0.45,"hn":null,"id":"btc_day:2026-10-27T01","gen":114,"url":"https://exchange.coinbase.com/trade/BTC-USD","why":"Base rate is 44.9%, 24h momentum +0.03% and 7d trend -1.9% are in opposite directions, so no combined momentum update; price change since reference is +0.061%, negligible; threshol","hash":"f4fc5dd5c96b7a78ed2c07b268da70042b679d4a9badcbc4829213f3bc51603c","note":"Coinbase BTC-USD opened at $80,633.88","type":"btc_day","brier":0.30250000000000005,"field":"markets","title":"Will Bitcoin trade above $80,080.77 on Coinbase at 01:00 UTC on Oct 28?","domain":null,"outcome":1,"scoreAt":null,"closesAt":1793064160066,"postedAt":null,"typeName":"Bitcoin, 24 hours","resolveAt":1793149500000,"commentsAt":null,"finalScore":null,"finalValue":80633.88,"resolvedAt":1793149656271,"committedAt":1793063265604},{"p":0.45,"hn":null,"id":"btc_day:2026-10-27T00","gen":114,"url":"https://exchange.coinbase.com/trade/BTC-USD","why":"Base rate is 44.8%, spot is 0.064% above reference, negligible momentum over 24h and 7d is negative (-2.23%); threshold is at reference price (0% gap), so threshold proximity is ne","hash":"4f3fdecd73b0e7c43467955b4e3a458e281c39565a9a8c8e8b5f7be8f5a5276f","note":"Coinbase BTC-USD opened at $80,799.50","type":"btc_day","brier":0.30250000000000005,"field":"markets","title":"Will Bitcoin trade above $80,008.79 on Coinbase at 00:00 UTC on Oct 28?","domain":null,"outcome":1,"scoreAt":null,"closesAt":1793060560021,"postedAt":null,"typeName":"Bitcoin, 24 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politics","resolveAt":1792256859998,"commentsAt":null,"finalScore":null,"finalValue":0,"resolvedAt":1792804056119,"committedAt":1792249662170},{"p":0.35,"hn":null,"id":"kalshi_pol:KXAPRPOTUS-26OCT23","gen":21,"url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxaprpotus","why":"The recent approval ratings show a slight downward trend near but mostly below 38.7%, making a rise above that threshold in one week less likely but possible.","hash":"c0101d498b95faf71eabbea3382ba1a701d2e8b1f22fa9eb4f7b08eb1d2b821b","note":"Kalshi settled the approval reading at 38.8","type":"kalshi_pol","brier":0.42250000000000004,"field":"policy","title":"Will the President's approval rating be 38.7% or higher in the RealClearPolitics average on Oct 23?","domain":null,"outcome":1,"scoreAt":null,"closesAt":1792166860776,"postedAt":null,"typeName":"Presidential approval","resolveAt":1792769400000,"commentsAt":null,"finalScore":null,"finalValue":38.8,"resolvedAt":1792771656647,"committedAt":1792163268285},{"p":0.23,"hn":null,"id":"poly_pol:4082027","gen":21,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/bank-of-israel-decision-in-october","why":"Central banks typically adjust rates at scheduled meetings, and recent global trends suggest a likely change by the Bank of Israel in October, making no change less probable.","hash":"2e9562980505b43c2630ddbac563273e548473be75c44527f97a7355c3f85dec","note":"Polymarket resolved YES","type":"poly_pol","brier":0.5929,"field":"policy","title":"Will the Bank of Israel make no change to the Bank of Israel Interest Rate after the October decision?","domain":null,"outcome":1,"scoreAt":null,"closesAt":1792321658526,"postedAt":null,"typeName":"Polymarket, politics","resolveAt":1792325258526,"commentsAt":null,"finalScore":null,"finalValue":1,"resolvedAt":1792595256729,"committedAt":1792318060512},{"p":0.23,"hn":null,"id":"eo_week:KXEOWEEK-26OCT10","gen":21,"url":"https://www.federalregister.gov/presidential-documents/executive-orders","why":"No executive orders have been signed so far this week with six days left, and recent weeks show a median of 2 but frequent weeks with 0 or 1, making more than 1 this week less like","hash":"63d950cace3c9ec2321616bcc27368af048e1861e511e79ec01ce03aba2f6726","note":"The Federal Register lists 1 executive order signed that week","type":"eo_week","brier":0.0529,"field":"policy","title":"Will the President sign more than 1 executive order between Oct 4 and Oct 10?","domain":null,"outcome":0,"scoreAt":null,"closesAt":1791198458433,"postedAt":null,"typeName":"Executive orders this week","resolveAt":1792504800000,"commentsAt":null,"finalScore":null,"finalValue":1,"resolvedAt":1792505257960,"committedAt":1791194863966},{"p":0.23,"hn":null,"id":"poly_pol:5847927","gen":21,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/paris-curfew-announced-byptptpt","why":"Despite recent protests in Paris, no official curfew has been announced yet and such measures are relatively rare, making a curfew announcement by October 21 unlikely but possible.","hash":"cfe826d64dbfed9f19e741e27fd9ca87726b6d62b8996417481e264a4423755f","note":"Polymarket resolved YES","type":"poly_pol","brier":0.5929,"field":"policy","title":"Paris curfew by October 21?","domain":null,"outcome":1,"scoreAt":null,"closesAt":1792415260798,"postedAt":null,"typeName":"Polymarket, politics","resolveAt":1792418860798,"commentsAt":null,"finalScore":null,"finalValue":1,"resolvedAt":1792440456332,"committedAt":1792411665898},{"p":0.23,"hn":null,"id":"poly_pol:2133718","gen":21,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/france-united-left-primary-winner","why":"The 2026 United Left primary is currently scheduled and no official cancellation announcement has been made, making cancellation less likely but still possible given political unce","hash":"4fb7d6434a727d276a513fae097c35475dab067c31d63bd9b00dfa1535c89de8","note":"Polymarket resolved YES","type":"poly_pol","brier":0.5929,"field":"policy","title":"Will the 2026 United Left primary for the 2027 French presidential election be canceled?","domain":null,"outcome":1,"scoreAt":null,"closesAt":1791742058834,"postedAt":null,"typeName":"Polymarket, politics","resolveAt":1791745658834,"commentsAt":null,"finalScore":null,"finalValue":1,"resolvedAt":1792325257108,"committedAt":1791738461083},{"p":0.23,"hn":null,"id":"poly_pol:1822542","gen":21,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/vancouver-mayoral-election-winner","why":"Incumbent or leading candidates in Vancouver mayoral races typically face strong competition, and with the election over two years away and no current polling data, the probability","hash":"70575d7ce3932a50bc923eb22f8ca65b9e36b65c1a937f57d43227018a760216","note":"Polymarket resolved YES","type":"poly_pol","brier":0.5929,"field":"policy","title":"Will Pete Fry win the 2026 Vancouver mayoral election?","domain":null,"outcome":1,"scoreAt":null,"closesAt":1792134460034,"postedAt":null,"typeName":"Polymarket, politics","resolveAt":1792138060034,"commentsAt":null,"finalScore":null,"finalValue":1,"resolvedAt":1792318055889,"committedAt":1792130875401},{"p":0.23,"hn":null,"id":"poly_pol:1822537","gen":21,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/vancouver-mayoral-election-winner","why":"Incumbent or well-known candidates often face challenges in local elections, and with over three years until the 2026 Vancouver mayoral election, uncertainty and potential competit","hash":"24b120e6ea362db7f8bf3ad42080560550790fc447549672f9a3c8c2ba122dea","note":"Polymarket resolved NO","type":"poly_pol","brier":0.0529,"field":"policy","title":"Will Ken Sim win the 2026 Vancouver mayoral election?","domain":null,"outcome":0,"scoreAt":null,"closesAt":1792040859616,"postedAt":null,"typeName":"Polymarket, politics","resolveAt":1792044459616,"commentsAt":null,"finalScore":null,"finalValue":0,"resolvedAt":1792318055873,"committedAt":1792037265441},{"p":0.35,"hn":null,"id":"fr_rules_week:2026-10-12","gen":21,"url":"https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/search?conditions%5Btype%5D%5B%5D=RULE","why":"The threshold is 48 final rules, but the week includes Columbus Day with only 4 publishing days, reducing the likelihood compared to recent weeks with full publishing.","hash":"95145cfbab73d5888f003ebe029c03de4a9fd7e7afa93915f0eb604a79ffbf8e","note":"The Federal Register published 53 rules that week","type":"fr_rules_week","brier":0.42250000000000004,"field":"policy","title":"Will the Federal Register publish 48 or more final rules in the week of Oct 12?","domain":null,"outcome":1,"scoreAt":null,"closesAt":1791565660455,"postedAt":null,"typeName":"Federal rules next week","resolveAt":1792238400000,"commentsAt":null,"finalScore":null,"finalValue":53,"resolvedAt":1792238856968,"committedAt":1791562067757},{"p":0.23,"hn":null,"id":"poly_pol:5167155","gen":21,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/will-russia-target-kyiv-on-october-2026","why":"Given the long time horizon to October 2026 and current patterns of Russian targeting, the probability of a specific strike on Kyiv on that exact date is low but not negligible.","hash":"d4f36354e772b5a7afa129bc91c9eff1fcf243bf24dcb8882cb0ba4be2f5819c","note":"Polymarket resolved YES","type":"poly_pol","brier":0.5929,"field":"policy","title":"Will Russia target Kyiv on October 16, 2026?","domain":null,"outcome":1,"scoreAt":null,"closesAt":1791954458889,"postedAt":null,"typeName":"Polymarket, politics","resolveAt":1791958058889,"commentsAt":null,"finalScore":null,"finalValue":1,"resolvedAt":1792174056066,"committedAt":1791950864637},{"p":0.35,"hn":null,"id":"kalshi_pol:KXAPRPOTUS-26OCT16","gen":21,"url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxaprpotus","why":"The approval rating has recently hovered just below and above 38.2%, with a slight downward trend toward the threshold, making a rise above 38.2% in 6.5 days less likely but still ","hash":"b65307bfd965c04ca537d65ce372f141f6ec7ad70e5ca33377d13ead7d179554","note":"Kalshi settled the approval reading at 38.8","type":"kalshi_pol","brier":0.42250000000000004,"field":"policy","title":"Will the President's approval rating be 38.2% or higher in the RealClearPolitics average on Oct 16?","domain":null,"outcome":1,"scoreAt":null,"closesAt":1791601659581,"postedAt":null,"typeName":"Presidential approval","resolveAt":1792164600000,"commentsAt":null,"finalScore":null,"finalValue":38.8,"resolvedAt":1792166856645,"committedAt":1791598065888},{"p":0.23,"hn":null,"id":"poly_pol:5183416","gen":21,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/israel-military-action-against-lebanon-on-october-2026","why":"There is no recent escalation or public indication of imminent Israeli military action against Lebanon on October 15, making a strike less likely but not impossible given regional ","hash":"74ca1f2159ce10fbed3ef678692cccfa9c1ac1cb5a58f409beb58805785876c9","note":"Polymarket resolved YES","type":"poly_pol","brier":0.5929,"field":"policy","title":"Israel military action against Lebanon on October 15?","domain":null,"outcome":1,"scoreAt":null,"closesAt":1791868061045,"postedAt":null,"typeName":"Polymarket, politics","resolveAt":1791871661045,"commentsAt":null,"finalScore":null,"finalValue":1,"resolvedAt":1792073256518,"committedAt":1791864468339},{"p":0.23,"hn":null,"id":"poly_pol:5167148","gen":21,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/will-russia-target-kyiv-on-october-2026","why":"There has been a low frequency of Russian strikes specifically targeting Kyiv recently, and the event is more than three years in the future, reducing immediate risk likelihood.","hash":"2548502b2547b4dd6c3114433bbb963a7df2e530970a0fd88cfa6196c51093f8","note":"Polymarket resolved YES","type":"poly_pol","brier":0.5929,"field":"policy","title":"Will Russia target Kyiv on October 12, 2026?","domain":null,"outcome":1,"scoreAt":null,"closesAt":1791608858949,"postedAt":null,"typeName":"Polymarket, politics","resolveAt":1791612458949,"commentsAt":null,"finalScore":null,"finalValue":1,"resolvedAt":1791806856668,"committedAt":1791605263569},{"p":0.65,"hn":null,"id":"kalshi_pol:KXAPRPOTUS-26OCT09","gen":21,"url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxaprpotus","why":"The recent approval ratings are consistently above the 38.2% threshold, and polling averages tend to move slowly, making it likely the rating will remain at or above 38.2% in 4.2 d","hash":"6d0cea05bc83771dabed6a9e5167a9878de5b3636ca8a73053c38352b23c50c7","note":"Kalshi settled the approval reading at 37.8","type":"kalshi_pol","brier":0.42250000000000004,"field":"policy","title":"Will the President's approval rating be 38.2% or higher in the RealClearPolitics average on Oct 9?","domain":null,"outcome":0,"scoreAt":null,"closesAt":1791194859542,"postedAt":null,"typeName":"Presidential approval","resolveAt":1791559800000,"commentsAt":null,"finalScore":null,"finalValue":37.8,"resolvedAt":1791562056348,"committedAt":1791191262674}],"evolution":{"nextNote":null,"minResolved":60},"nextTickAt":1793304420000,"calibration":[{"n":2503,"hi":0.1,"lo":0,"freq":0.06392329204954054,"meanP":0.04686775868957207},{"n":1627,"hi":0.2,"lo":0.1,"freq":0.1628764597418562,"meanP":0.12763368162261932},{"n":1153,"hi":0.3,"lo":0.2,"freq":0.37814397224631396,"meanP":0.2357068516912385},{"n":734,"hi":0.4,"lo":0.3,"freq":0.48501362397820164,"meanP":0.3399318801089907},{"n":1221,"hi":0.5,"lo":0.4,"freq":0.4668304668304668,"meanP":0.44015970515970476},{"n":1131,"hi":0.6,"lo":0.5,"freq":0.4969053934571176,"meanP":0.5370114942528713},{"n":395,"hi":0.7,"lo":0.6,"freq":0.6227848101265823,"meanP":0.6358734177215207},{"n":210,"hi":0.8,"lo":0.7,"freq":0.7619047619047619,"meanP":0.7434285714285713},{"n":180,"hi":0.9,"lo":0.8,"freq":0.85,"meanP":0.8457222222222199},{"n":119,"hi":1,"lo":0.9,"freq":0.957983193277311,"meanP":0.9402521008403372}],"generatedAt":1793300893859,"generations":[{"n":48,"gen":135,"field":"tech","parent":125,"champion":false,"doctrine":"1. Use updated question-type-specific base rates with conservative defaults: hn100 ~18%, hn300 ~9%, hf_trending ~14%, wiki_attention ~20%. Adjust thresholds for early momentum upward only when points exceed 10 within first 60 minutes (hn100) or 25 within first 90 minutes (hn300), to better capture slow builds without premature optimism.\n2. Incorporate momentum by increasing forecasts only if recent 20-minute growth in points and comments exceeds 15%, emphasizing sustained engagement; require comment growth alongside points to reduce false positives from point spikes alone.\n3. For hn300, apply front-page rank boosts only if rank ≤10 and points > 80 with strong momentum (>20% growth). Penalize ranks >15 unless points >150 with exceptional momentum.\n4. Strengthen domain credibility boosts by requiring historical success rates >35% with consistent engagement; apply only after points exceed 20 and momentum is strongly positive; unknown domains default to neutral unless niche influence is demonstrated via historical data.\n5. Use comment-to-point ratio >0.20 as a positive signal starting at points > 30 and comments > 15, to reliably identify rich conversations without overweighting low counts.\n6. For older stories (>45 min for hn100, >90 min for hn300), discount forecasts sharply unless points and comments increased by at least 20% in last 20 minutes; plateau or decline strongly lowers forecasts.\n7. For hf_trending, emphasize rank stability (no worse than 10), steady or increasing trending score and downloads over last 48 hours; penalize models with trending score drops >10% or downloads declines >5%.\n8. For wiki_attention, require positive day-over-day view growth >5% and stable or improving rank (≤10) to forecast increased views tomorrow.\n9. Regularly recalibrate with segmented Brier score analyses focusing on reducing underforecasting of slow-building virality and overforecasting of early spikes without comment growth.","promoted":false,"createdAt":1793300893640,"ideasFrom":[],"rationale":"Adjusted base rates slightly downward; raised early momentum thresholds and growth requirements to reduce false positives from low-comment or slow-growing posts; refined domain credibility criteria for stronger signal; raised comment-to-point ratio threshold to ensure meaningful engagement; added wi","championBrier":0.057631249999999995,"challengerBrier":0.06419791666666666},{"n":48,"gen":134,"field":"sports","parent":113,"champion":true,"doctrine":"1. Maintain league-specific base rates with soccer_draw baseline fixed at 38% to avoid overforecasting draws.\n2. Adjust team quality signal weights to 60% recent form (last 5 games) and 40% full-season metrics to better balance short-term trends and season context.\n3. For ML in soccer/MLS/EPL, treat draws as negative for home wins, but increase home win probability only if home form is top quartile and away road form is bottom quartile, raising adjustment from 2-5% to 3-6%.\n4. For spread/runline, lower minimum required sample size to 15 games with margin data for deviations from baseline, applying Bayesian shrinkage toward baseline in smaller samples; set minimum cover probability floor to 0.52 to reduce underestimation of favorites.\n5. Total score forecasts to integrate pace, offense/defense efficiency, and last 5 games scoring volatility with venue and season stage weighting; maintain forecast range at 0.43-0.62 but add a volatility multiplier based on recent scoring variance.\n6. Incorporate injury, roster changes, and rest effects more aggressively with partial confirmation thresholds; emphasize back-to-back rest effects in NBA/NHL and adjust for lead times under 24 hours.\n7. In low-information or early-season cases, constrain forecasts between 0.50-0.60 for favorites and 0.40-0.50 for underdogs to reduce extreme confident errors.\n8. For soccer_draw and MLS_draw, combine base draw rates with recent form weighted 70% and head-to-head 30%, setting minimum draw floor at 0.36 to better align with observed frequencies.\n9. Enhance explanations to highlight recalibrated probability floors, adjusted confidence intervals, and adaptive weighting to improve calibration and reduce overconfidence.","promoted":true,"createdAt":1793286501931,"ideasFrom":[],"rationale":"Increased emphasis on balancing recent form with season data, lowered sample size thresholds for spreads, tightened probability floors, and more nuanced draw and rest effect modeling address previous underestimation of favorites and overconfidence, improving calibration across question types.","championBrier":0.24652916666666666,"challengerBrier":0.23944375000000004},{"n":48,"gen":133,"field":"markets","parent":114,"champion":false,"doctrine":"1. Use question-type base rates as initial priors, updating only when signal magnitude exceeds 1.5× typical volatility to reduce noise-induced overreaction.\n2. For price threshold questions, calculate threshold distance in expected moves and require at least ±0.75 expected moves gap before updating; apply a smoother sigmoid with calibrated slope to avoid overconfidence on marginal gaps.\n3. For cryptocurrency momentum, incorporate asymmetric weighting favoring recent negative momentum by 60% vs positive 40%, capped at ±7.5% adjustments to better reflect downside risks seen in misses.\n4. Combine 24-hour momentum and 7-day trend multiplicatively if both exceed ±1.0% in the same direction, else revert to base rate to capture interaction without amplifying noise.\n5. Use freshest intraday reference price within 15 seconds; if older, reduce update magnitude by 70% to emphasize data freshness more strongly.\n6. For Kalshi and Polymarket questions, update probabilities only if expected move to fix covers at least 85% of the threshold gap, reducing false confidence in marginal coverage.\n7. In the final 15% of time to resolution, reduce update magnitude by 95% and pull probabilities 10% toward base rate to prevent overconfidence near close.\n8. Calibrate probabilities within 45%-55% range by default, allowing wider ranges (20%-80%) only for strong, consistent signals with clear momentum direction and significant threshold distance.\n9. Explain forecasts including base rate, threshold proximity in expected moves, asymmetric momentum strength/direction, reference price freshness, expected move coverage, and time-to-resolution effects.","promoted":false,"createdAt":1793272118261,"ideasFrom":[],"rationale":"Increased volatility thresholds and stricter expected move requirements reduce overreaction; asymmetric momentum weighting corrects downside bias; multiplicative momentum combination better captures joint trends; stronger emphasis on data freshness and threshold coverage improves calibration; enhanc","championBrier":0.34236458333333336,"challengerBrier":0.34373125},{"n":48,"gen":132,"field":"tech","parent":125,"champion":false,"doctrine":"1. Use updated base rates per question type: hn100 ~20%, hn300 ~10%, hf_trending ~15%. For hn100 and hn300, lower early point thresholds to 7 points within 60 minutes (hn100) and 20 points within 90 minutes (hn300) for upward adjustments, capturing slow builds.\n2. Incorporate momentum signals by increasing forecasts if points exceed max(7, age_minutes/6) and recent 20-minute growth in points or comments is at least 10%, emphasizing sustained engagement.\n3. For hn300, apply front-page rank boosts only if points exceed 90 with >15% growth for ranks 1-10; reduce boosts or discount forecasts for ranks >10 unless points >120 with strong momentum.\n4. Strengthen domain credibility boosts by requiring domains to have historical success rates >30% with consistent engagement; allow niche exceptions only with positive momentum and points >15.\n5. Use comment-to-point ratio >0.15 as positive signal starting at points >20 and comments >10, but cap its influence to avoid overweighting sparse comments.\n6. For older stories (>45 min hn100, >90 min hn300), discount forecasts unless points and comments increase by at least 20% in last 20 minutes; plateau or declines reduce forecasts substantially.\n7. For hf_trending, emphasize rank stability, steady or increasing trending scores, downloads, and likes over 48 hours; penalize sudden sharp drops or volatility.\n8. Adjust forecasts upward more aggressively for stories with moderate early points (7–20) combined with momentum and growing comments to better capture slow-building virality.\n9. Regularly recalibrate with segmented Brier score analysis focusing on reducing underforecasting of slow builds and moderate momentum signals.","promoted":false,"createdAt":1793254089220,"ideasFrom":[],"rationale":"Increased sensitivity to moderate early points with momentum and stricter front-page rank boosts reduce underforecasting of slow but viral stories, as shown by missed cases with low initial forecasts but eventual virality.","championBrier":0.06973541666666667,"challengerBrier":0.06754791666666668},{"n":48,"gen":131,"field":"sports","parent":113,"champion":false,"doctrine":"1. Maintain league and question-type-specific base rates from multi-season data, adjusting soccer_draw baseline to 38% to reduce overestimation and setting conservative floors for low-data scenarios (minimum 0.45 for favorites).\n2. Weight team quality signals as 60% recent form (last 5 games) and 40% full-season metrics (ELO, power rankings), with home advantage adjusted dynamically per league (+3-5%), but reduce home advantage impact when home team form is poor or away team road form is strong.\n3. For ML questions, treat draws as negative evidence for home wins in soccer and MLS; increase home win probability only when home form is strong and away road form weak, limiting adjustments to max +3% to avoid overconfidence.\n4. For spread/runline forecasts, require a minimum of 30 recent games with margin data before deviating from baseline; in early season or sparse data, regress aggressively toward baseline with a minimum cover probability floor of 0.56 to better capture favorites' margin wins.\n5. Total score forecasts integrate pace, offense/defense efficiency, and scoring volatility with season stage and venue weighting; expand forecast bounds to 0.42-0.62 and incorporate recent head-to-head scoring trends.\n6. Incorporate injury, roster, and rest effects only when confirmed; emphasize back-to-back rest in NBA/NHL and reduce forecast confidence if rest disparities exceed 24 hours.\n7. In low-information or early-season contexts, constrain forecasts to 0.48-0.58 unless strong signals justify deviations; avoid probabilities below 0.48 for favorites unless compelling evidence.\n8. For soccer_draw, blend base draw rates with head-to-head and recent form (weighted 50/30/20), setting a minimum draw floor of 0.38 and capping max draw probability at 0.45 to prevent overforecasting.\n9. Provide explanations highlighting tighter probability floors, moderated home advantage impact, stricter margin data requirements, and overall calibration improvements to reduce overconfidence and large misses.","promoted":false,"createdAt":1793239697781,"ideasFrom":[],"rationale":"Reduced overconfidence in low-data and high-margin scenarios, tightened home advantage adjustments, and moderated draw forecasts to improve calibration and reduce large forecast misses.","championBrier":0.26144999999999996,"challengerBrier":0.26455624999999994},{"n":48,"gen":130,"field":"markets","parent":114,"champion":false,"doctrine":"1. Use question-type base rates as priors and update whenever signal magnitude exceeds 0.5× typical volatility to better capture meaningful moves without overreacting to noise.\n2. For price threshold questions, calculate distance to threshold in expected moves (volatility × sqrt(time remaining)) and update probabilities only if threshold lies beyond ±0.7 expected moves, applying a calibrated sigmoid with moderate slope to prevent overconfidence on marginal gaps.\n3. For cryptocurrency momentum, use asymmetric weighting favoring recent positive changes (60% positive, 40% negative) over the last 12 hours and cap adjustments at ±15% to better reflect upside momentum while limiting bias.\n4. Combine 24-hour momentum and 7-day trend multiplicatively when both exceed ±1.0% in the same direction; otherwise revert to base rate, to capture interaction effects without amplification in conflicting signals.\n5. Use freshest intraday reference price within 60 seconds; if older, reduce update magnitude by 40% to improve balance between freshness and data availability.\n6. For Kalshi and Polymarket questions, update probabilities only if expected move to fix covers at least 85% of threshold gap, reducing false confidence on marginal coverage.\n7. In final 15% of time to resolution, reduce update magnitude by 80% and gently pull probabilities toward base rate to avoid overconfidence near close.\n8. Calibrate probabilities within 35%-65% range by default, allowing wider ranges (20%-80%) only for strong, consistent signals with clear momentum and threshold distance.\n9. Explain forecasts including base rate, threshold proximity in expected moves, asymmetric momentum strength/direction, reference price freshness, expected move coverage, and time-to-resolution effects.","promoted":false,"createdAt":1793218116633,"ideasFrom":[],"rationale":"Increased sensitivity to meaningful volatility and adjusted momentum weighting and combination improved calibration, while fine-tuning threshold and time-to-resolution cutoffs reduced over- and under-confidence observed in prior forecasts.","championBrier":0.4013187499999999,"challengerBrier":0.4247437499999998},{"n":48,"gen":129,"field":"tech","parent":125,"champion":false,"doctrine":"1. Update question-type-specific base rates monthly: hn100 ~20%, hn300 ~12%, hf_trending ~15%, wiki_attention ~10%. Use conservative initial thresholds for upward adjustment: hn100 points ≥10 within 60 minutes, hn300 points ≥30 within 90 minutes, to better detect slow-building virality.\n2. Incorporate momentum by increasing forecasts if points exceed max(10, age_minutes/5) and recent 20-minute growth in points or comments is ≥15%, emphasizing sustained, accelerating engagement.\n3. For hn300, apply front-page rank boosts only if combined with strong momentum: ranks 1-5 if points > 80 and >15% growth; ranks 6-10 if points > 100 and >20% growth; penalize ranks >10 unless points > 130 with very strong momentum.\n4. Strengthen domain credibility boosts by requiring historical success rates ≥40% with consistent engagement over multiple months; apply when points ≥ 20 and momentum positive; treat unknown or low-reputation domains cautiously.\n5. Use comment-to-point ratio >0.2 as a positive signal starting at points ≥ 25 and comments ≥ 12, to leverage rich conversation while avoiding overweighting sparse comments.\n6. For older stories (age > 45 min hn100, > 90 min hn300), discount forecasts unless points and comments increased ≥ 20% in last 20 minutes; plateauing or declining engagement lowers forecasts substantially.\n7. For hf_trending, emphasize rank stability, positive trending score changes, and steady or growing downloads and likes over last 48 hours; penalize sharp drops or high age (>30 days).\n8. For wiki_attention, incorporate article rank trajectory and recent day-over-day view changes, requiring sustained increases (>10%) to forecast upward; otherwise, maintain conservative forecasts.\n9. Regularly recalibrate using segmented Brier score analysis focusing on moderate early momentum and slow-building virality; avoid sole reliance on raw point thresholds by integrating momentum and comments growth.","promoted":false,"createdAt":1793207315590,"ideasFrom":[],"rationale":"Increased base rate and momentum thresholds to reduce underforecasting of slow-building virality and moderate momentum cases, raised domain credibility standards for more reliable boosts, adjusted comment ratio thresholds to better capture rich engagement, added explicit wiki_attention rules to impr","championBrier":0.17052916666666665,"challengerBrier":0.1810375},{"n":48,"gen":128,"field":"tech","parent":125,"champion":false,"doctrine":"1. Use updated question-type-specific base rates with conservative adjustments for early point thresholds: hn100 base ~20%, hn300 ~10%. Require at least 10 points within 60 minutes (hn100) or 30 points within 90 minutes (hn300) before upward forecast revision to reduce false positives from slow but low engagement.\n2. Incorporate momentum using both absolute growth and growth rate in points and comments over the past 20 minutes, requiring at least 15% growth and point increments exceeding max(10, age_minutes/5) to raise forecasts, ensuring sustained and substantial engagement.\n3. For hn300, apply front-page rank boosts only if rank ≤10 combined with points exceeding 80 and strong momentum (>15% growth), otherwise penalize forecasts for lower ranks or plateauing engagement.\n4. Strengthen domain credibility boosts by requiring domains to have historical success rates >40% and consistent engagement over multiple recent stories; apply only when points > 20 and momentum is strong; treat unknown domains cautiously, avoiding exceptions without clear niche influence.\n5. Use comment-to-point ratio >0.2 as a positive signal starting at points > 30 and comments > 15 to better differentiate rich conversations indicative of virality.\n6. For older stories (>45 min for hn100, >90 min for hn300), discount forecasts unless points and comments have increased by at least 20% in the last 20 minutes; plateau or decline lowers forecasts substantially.\n7. Regularly recalibrate with segmented Brier score analysis focusing on reducing underforecasting in moderate early momentum and slow-build virality, emphasizing momentum and domain credibility.\n8. Avoid relying solely on raw point thresholds; integrate strong, sustained momentum signals from recent growth in both points and comments to distinguish genuine virality from early spikes or stalled interest.","promoted":false,"createdAt":1793160547342,"ideasFrom":[],"rationale":"Raised momentum and point growth thresholds to reduce underforecasting of slow-build virality while avoiding false positives from weak early signals; tightened domain credibility requirements and comment-to-point ratio criteria to better capture genuine engagement patterns.","championBrier":0.1117791666666667,"challengerBrier":0.12885416666666671},{"n":48,"gen":127,"field":"sports","parent":113,"champion":false,"doctrine":"1. Retain league-specific base rates from recent multi-season data, updating soccer_draw baseline to 38% but reduce the minimum draw floor to 0.35 to mitigate persistent overforecasting.\n2. Adjust team quality signal weighting to 60% recent form (last 5 games) and 40% full-season metrics, emphasizing recent form less to avoid overreacting to short-term fluctuations.\n3. For ML questions in soccer/MLS and EPL, continue treating draws as negative evidence for home wins but apply a smaller upward home win adjustment (1-3%) only when home form exceeds away road form by at least 50%.\n4. For spread/runline bets, increase minimum sample size to 30 recent games with margin data before deviating from baseline; in sparse or early-season data, regress towards baseline with a cover probability floor of 0.56 to better capture favorites' margin wins.\n5. For total score forecasts, integrate pace, offense/defense efficiency, and last 5 games scoring volatility with stronger venue and season stage weighting; narrow forecast range slightly to 0.45-0.60 to reduce overprediction bias.\n6. Incorporate injury, roster changes, and rest effects only when confirmed, emphasize back-to-back rest impacts in NBA/NHL, and adjust for short lead times under 12 hours with a mild negative bias for favorites.\n7. In low-information or early-season contexts, constrain forecasts to 0.50-0.58 unless strong signals justify deviations; avoid forecasts below 0.50 for favorites unless strong contrary evidence.\n8. For soccer_draw and MLS_draw, combine base draw rates with head-to-head and recent form, weighting recent form at 50%, and apply a minimum draw floor of 0.35.\n9. Provide clearer explanations emphasizing recalibrated probability floors, reduced draw forecast floors, and tightened total score ranges to improve calibration and reduce overconfidence.","promoted":false,"createdAt":1793156900716,"ideasFrom":[],"rationale":"Reduced overconfidence on favorites and draw forecasts by moderating recent form weight and increasing minimum sample sizes, tightened total score forecast ranges, and lowered draw floors to better align predictions with observed outcomes and reduce large misses on spreads and totals.","championBrier":0.26514375000000007,"challengerBrier":0.2680729166666666},{"n":48,"gen":126,"field":"markets","parent":114,"champion":false,"doctrine":"1. Use question-type base rates as priors but require signal magnitude exceeding 1.5× typical volatility before updating to prevent underestimating significant moves.\n2. For price threshold questions, calculate threshold distance in expected moves (volatility × sqrt(time remaining)) and update probabilities only if threshold lies beyond ±1.0 expected moves, applying a calibrated sigmoid with moderate slope to avoid overconfidence on marginal gaps.\n3. For cryptocurrency momentum, weight recent price changes asymmetrically over last 24 hours: 60% on negative moves and 40% on positive to better capture downside risk, capping adjustments at ±15%.\n4. Combine 24-hour momentum and 7-day trend multiplicatively when both exceed ±1.0% in the same direction to amplify consistent signals; otherwise revert to base rate.\n5. Use freshest intraday reference price within 5 minutes; if older, reduce update magnitude by 75% to better reflect data staleness.\n6. For Kalshi and Polymarket questions, update probabilities only if expected move to fix covers at least 100% of threshold gap, reducing false confidence on marginal coverage.\n7. In final 15% of time to resolution, reduce update magnitude by 95% and pull probabilities toward base rate to prevent last-minute overfitting.\n8. Default probability calibration within 40%-60% range; allow wider ranges (20%-80%) only for strong, consistent signals with clear momentum and threshold distance.\n9. Explain forecasts including base rate, threshold proximity in expected moves, asymmetric momentum strength/direction, reference price freshness, expected move coverage, and time-to-resolution effects.","promoted":false,"createdAt":1793146111694,"ideasFrom":[],"rationale":"Raised thresholds for updates and asymmetric momentum weighting to better capture downside risk and reduce overreaction to stale or marginal signals, addressing large misses especially on S&P 500 and BTC forecasts.","championBrier":0.2930791666666667,"challengerBrier":0.3200270833333334},{"n":48,"gen":125,"field":"tech","parent":104,"champion":true,"doctrine":"1. Use monthly-updated question-type-specific base rates: hn100 ~20%, hn300 ~10%, hf_trending ~15%. For hn100 and hn300, lower point thresholds for upward adjustment to 7 points within first 60 minutes (hn100) and 20 points within first 90 minutes (hn300) to better capture slower starts that still reach virality.\n2. Incorporate momentum by increasing forecasts if points exceed max(7, age_minutes/6) and recent 20-minute growth in points or comments is at least 10%, emphasizing sustained engagement and allowing earlier momentum signals.\n3. For hn300, apply front-page rank boosts if combined with momentum: ranks 1-5 increase forecast if points > 70 and >10% growth; ranks 6-10 if points > 90 and >15% growth; ranks >10 reduce forecasts unless points > 120 with very strong momentum.\n4. Strengthen domain credibility boosts by requiring historical success rates >30% and consistent engagement; apply when points > 15 and momentum positive; treat unknown or low-reputation domains conservatively but allow exceptions for domains with recognized niche influence.\n5. Use comment-to-point ratio >0.15 as a positive signal starting at points > 20 and comments > 10, to better leverage early rich conversation without overweighting sparse comments.\n6. For older stories (>45 min for hn100, >90 min for hn300), discount forecasts unless points and comments increased by at least 15% in last 20 minutes; plateauing or declining engagement lowers forecasts substantially.\n7. For hf_trending, emphasize rank stability, positive trending score changes, and steady or growing downloads and likes over last 48 hours; penalize sudden sharp drops.\n8. Regularly recalibrate with segmented Brier score analysis focusing on reducing underforecasting for moderate early momentum and missed slow-build virality.\n9. Avoid relying solely on raw point thresholds; always integrate strong momentum signals from recent growth in points and comments to distinguish genuine virality from early spikes.","promoted":true,"createdAt":1793110110023,"ideasFrom":[],"rationale":"Lowering early point thresholds and momentum cutoffs captures slower-building but eventual viral stories that were underforecasted; relaxing domain and comment ratio criteria better account for niche and comment-rich content; shortening 'older story' window improves responsiveness; overall changes r","championBrier":0.16872708333333333,"challengerBrier":0.16383750000000002},{"n":48,"gen":124,"field":"markets","parent":114,"champion":false,"doctrine":"1. Use question-type base rates as priors but update only when signal magnitude exceeds 1.5× typical volatility to further reduce overreaction to normal fluctuations.\n2. For price threshold questions, compute distance to threshold in expected moves (volatility × sqrt(time remaining)); update probabilities only if threshold lies beyond ±0.75 expected moves, applying a calibrated sigmoid with moderate slope to avoid overconfidence on marginal gaps.\n3. For cryptocurrency momentum, weight recent price changes asymmetrically over last 24 hours: 60% on downside moves and 40% on upside to better reflect observed negative momentum bias, capping adjustments at ±8%.\n4. Combine 24-hour momentum and 7-day trend additively, but require both exceed ±1.5% in the same direction to update; otherwise revert to base rate.\n5. Use freshest intraday reference price within 15 seconds; if older, reduce update magnitude by 70% to prioritize data freshness.\n6. For Kalshi and Polymarket questions, require expected move to fix covers at least 85% of threshold gap before updating probabilities, limiting false confidence on marginal coverage.\n7. In final 5% of time to resolution, reduce update magnitude by 95% and pull probabilities toward base rate to prevent end-of-period overconfidence.\n8. Calibrate probabilities within 45%-55% range by default, allowing wider ranges (30%-70%) only for strong, consistent signals with clear momentum and threshold distance.\n9. Explain forecasts including base rate, threshold proximity in expected moves, asymmetric momentum strength/direction, reference price freshness, expected move coverage, and time-to-resolution effects.","promoted":false,"createdAt":1793099310970,"ideasFrom":[],"rationale":"Tightened volatility thresholds and increased signal magnitude requirements reduce overreacting to small fluctuations; asymmetric momentum weighting addresses downside bias seen in misses; stricter freshness and expected move coverage thresholds prevent false confidence; increased probability calibr","championBrier":0.1917520833333334,"challengerBrier":0.19425625000000016},{"n":48,"gen":123,"field":"sports","parent":113,"champion":false,"doctrine":"1. Maintain league-specific base rates from recent multi-season data, with soccer_draw baseline set at 38% and floor to reduce overestimation; adjust dynamically for recent changes in league-wide draw trends.\n2. Adjust team quality signals to weight recent form at 60% (last 5 games) and full-season metrics at 40%, incorporating ELO, power rankings, and home advantage (NBA/NHL +4%, NFL +5%, soccer/MLS +3%), to better capture current team strength.\n3. For ML questions in soccer/MLS/EPL, treat draws as negative evidence for home win and increase home win probability only when strong home form coincides with weak away form; reduce minimum forecast floors to 0.40 for favorites in low-data or early-season to allow stronger underdog signals.\n4. For spread/runline bets, require a minimum of 20 recent games with margin data to deviate confidently from baseline; regress more strongly toward baseline with a floor cover probability of 0.52 to avoid overconfidence in margin forecasts.\n5. For total score questions, integrate pace, offense/defense efficiency, and recent scoring volatility with venue and season stage weighting; narrow forecast range to 0.45–0.58 to reduce overestimation of extremes.\n6. Incorporate injury, roster changes, and rest impacts only when confirmed; emphasize back-to-back rest effects in NBA/NHL and adjust moderately for rest under 12 hours.\n7. In low-information or early-season contexts, constrain forecasts mainly within 0.45–0.60 unless strong signals justify deviations; allow forecasts below 0.45 only with compelling underdog or upset evidence.\n8. For soccer_draw and MLS_draw, combine base draw rates with head-to-head and recent form, weighting recent form at 70%; apply a minimum draw floor of 0.36 to better reflect actual draw frequencies.\n9. Provide clear explanations emphasizing recalibrated probability floors, moderated draw forecasts, narrower total score ranges, and stronger regression to baseline in sparse data to improve calibration and reduce overconfidence.","promoted":false,"createdAt":1793070502360,"ideasFrom":[],"rationale":"Reduced overconfidence by lowering minimum forecast floors for favorites and margins, increased weight on recent form to better capture current team strength, narrowed total score probability ranges, and adjusted draw floors downward to better reflect observed frequencies, leading to improved calibr","championBrier":0.24641458333333335,"challengerBrier":0.24783333333333332},{"n":48,"gen":122,"field":"tech","parent":104,"champion":false,"doctrine":"1. Update monthly base rates: hn100 ~22%, hn300 ~12%, reflecting observed hit rates. Use early points thresholds for boosts: hn100 increase forecast if ≥8 points within 60 minutes; hn300 increase if ≥25 points within 90 minutes, lowering previous thresholds to better capture slower starters.\n2. Emphasize momentum by requiring both recent absolute growth (≥10 points or comments in last 20 minutes) and relative growth (≥20%) for forecast increases, ensuring growth is meaningful and sustained.\n3. For hn300, apply front-page rank boosts only if combined with strong momentum: ranks 1-5 if points >90 and growth >20%; ranks 6-10 if points >120 and growth >25%. Reduce forecasts for ranks >10 unless exceptionally strong momentum (>150 points and >30% growth).\n4. Enhance domain credibility boosts by requiring historical success rates >40% with minimum 10 prior stories; apply only when current points >30 and momentum positive. Treat unknown or low-reputation domains cautiously.\n5. Use comment-to-point ratio >0.25 as positive signal only if points >40 and comments >20, to avoid overweighting sparse comments.\n6. For older stories (>45 min hn100, >90 min hn300), sharply discount forecasts unless points and comments increased by ≥25% and ≥15 absolute points in last 20 minutes; plateauing or decline lowers forecasts substantially.\n7. Avoid relying on raw points alone; always integrate strong momentum signals combining recent absolute and relative growth to identify true virality rather than early spikes.\n8. Continuously recalibrate using segmented Brier score analysis focusing on reducing underforecasting for stories with moderate early points but strong momentum, and overforecasting for high score stories lacking sustained growth.","promoted":false,"createdAt":1793063294004,"ideasFrom":[],"rationale":"Lowered early points thresholds and increased momentum growth requirements address missed fast-rising stories with modest early points; stricter domain and comment ratio criteria reduce false positives; shorter cutoff ages for momentum focus on timely signals, improving calibration across question t","championBrier":0.19323124999999997,"challengerBrier":0.21281458333333336},{"n":48,"gen":121,"field":"markets","parent":114,"champion":false,"doctrine":"1. Use question-type base rates as priors and update only when signal magnitude exceeds 1.5× typical volatility to prevent overreacting to normal market noise.\n2. For price threshold questions, measure distance to threshold in expected moves (volatility × sqrt(time remaining)) and update probabilities only if threshold is beyond ±1.0 expected moves, applying a calibrated sigmoid with moderate slope to avoid overconfidence on marginal gaps.\n3. For cryptocurrency momentum, weight recent price changes asymmetrically over last 12 hours, emphasizing negative momentum by 60% and positive by 40%, with adjustment caps at ±8% to better reflect downside risks observed.\n4. Combine 24-hour momentum and 7-day trend multiplicatively when both exceed ±1.0% in the same direction; otherwise revert to base rate to capture interaction effects without amplifying noise.\n5. Use freshest intraday reference price within 15 seconds; if older, reduce update magnitude by 70% to emphasize data freshness.\n6. For Kalshi and Polymarket questions, update probabilities only if expected move to fix covers at least 100% of threshold gap, raising confidence only when move fully covers threshold.\n7. In final 10% of time to resolution, reduce update magnitude by 95% and pull probabilities strongly toward base rate to prevent late overconfidence.\n8. Calibrate probabilities within 45%-55% range by default, allowing wider ranges (20%-80%) only for strong, consistent signals with clear momentum, threshold distance, and fresh data.\n9. Explain forecasts including base rate, threshold proximity in expected moves, asymmetric momentum strength/direction, reference price freshness, expected move coverage, and time-to-resolution effects.","promoted":false,"createdAt":1793052511236,"ideasFrom":[],"rationale":"Raised volatility thresholds for updates, emphasized downside momentum, tightened freshness window, required full expected move coverage, and stronger pull to base rate near resolution to reduce overconfidence and improve calibration.","championBrier":0.16044166666666665,"challengerBrier":0.20694791666666668},{"n":48,"gen":120,"field":"tech","parent":104,"champion":false,"doctrine":"1. Use monthly-updated question-type-specific base rates: hn100 ~20%, hn300 ~10%, hf_trending ~15%. Increase base rates when points exceed 10 within first 60 minutes for hn100, and 30 within first 90 minutes for hn300, reflecting stronger early signals.\n2. Incorporate momentum by increasing forecasts if points exceed max(10, age_minutes/5) and recent 20-minute growth in points or comments is at least 15%, emphasizing sustained growth rather than raw counts.\n3. For hn300, apply front-page rank boosts if combined with sustained momentum: ranks 1-5 increase forecast if points > 80 and >15% growth; ranks 6-10 if points > 110 and >20% growth; ranks >10 reduce forecasts unless points > 130 with very strong momentum.\n4. Loosen domain credibility boosts: apply positive adjustments for domains with historical success rates >25% and consistent engagement, lowering threshold points to 15 with positive momentum; treat unknown domains neutrally rather than conservatively to avoid underforecasting.\n5. Use comment-to-point ratio >0.15 as a positive momentum signal if points > 20 and comments > 10, to capture meaningful engagement while avoiding overweighting sparse comments.\n6. For older stories (>60 min for hn100, >120 min for hn300), discount forecasts unless points and comments increased by at least 15% in last 20 minutes; plateauing or declining engagement lowers forecasts substantially.\n7. For hf_trending, emphasize rank stability and positive trending score changes over last 48 hours, discounting models with declining downloads or likes.\n8. Regularly recalibrate with segmented Brier score analysis focusing on reducing underforecasting for moderate early momentum and overforecasting for high raw scores lacking sustained growth.\n9. Avoid relying solely on raw point thresholds; always integrate strong momentum signals from recent growth in points and comments to distinguish genuine virality from early spikes.","promoted":false,"createdAt":1793016506105,"ideasFrom":[],"rationale":"Loosened domain and comment ratio thresholds and reduced momentum growth cutoffs for older stories to address underforecasting of moderate momentum cases, improving calibration without sacrificing gains from momentum and rank signals.","championBrier":0.1378333333333333,"challengerBrier":0.1430479166666667},{"n":48,"gen":119,"field":"sports","parent":113,"champion":false,"doctrine":"1. Maintain league- and question-type-specific base rates using multi-season data, but recalibrate NFL ML and spread baseline probabilities upward by 5-7% for strong away favorites with undefeated or near-undefeated road records to address underestimation of dominant road teams.\n2. Adjust team quality signal weighting to 60% recent form (last 5 games) and 40% full-season metrics, increasing the influence of overall strength for NFL and NHL, reflecting less volatility in these leagues.\n3. For ML questions in soccer/MLS/EPL, increase adjustment for strong home form and weak away road form to 4-7%, and lower minimum forecast floor for favorites to 0.42 to reduce overconfidence on weaker home teams.\n4. For spread/runline bets, reduce minimum recent games requirement to 15 with margin data and implement a dynamic baseline regression toward 0.52 in sparse or early-season contexts, reflecting observed underperformance when using 0.54 floor.\n5. Total score forecasts to incorporate opponent defensive efficiency and pace consistency with a slight reduction in volatility weighting, narrowing forecast range to 0.45-0.60 to mitigate overestimation of total extremes.\n6. Integrate injury, roster, and rest impacts proactively using latest verified news feeds, emphasizing rest effects especially in NFL and NBA with adjustments varying by rest length and travel distance.\n7. In low-information or early-season contexts, constrain forecasts to 0.45-0.58 unless strong signals exist, and allow favorites to have probabilities below 0.48 when facing dominant opponents.\n8. For soccer_draw and MLS_draw, combine base draw rates with 50% recent form and 50% head-to-head, lowering minimum draw floor to 0.35 to reduce overforecasting.\n9. Provide explicit calibration checks for NFL ML and spread bets on dominant road favorites, explaining upward baseline adjustments and tighter total score bands to reduce systematic underpredictions.","promoted":false,"createdAt":1792987699318,"ideasFrom":[],"rationale":"Adjusted NFL ML and spread baselines upward for strong road favorites and loosened minimum forecast floors to fix underestimation of dominant teams; narrowed total score forecast ranges and reduced draw floors to improve calibration and reduce overconfidence observed in missed bets.","championBrier":0.26018125000000003,"challengerBrier":0.2619416666666667},{"n":48,"gen":118,"field":"markets","parent":114,"champion":false,"doctrine":"1. Use question-type base rates as priors and update only when signal magnitudes exceed 1.5× typical volatility to reduce overreaction to normal price noise.\n2. For price threshold questions, calculate distance to threshold in expected moves (volatility × sqrt(time remaining)) and update probabilities only if threshold lies beyond ±1.0 expected moves, applying a calibrated sigmoid with moderate slope to avoid overconfidence on marginal threshold gaps.\n3. For cryptocurrency momentum, weight recent price changes asymmetrically over last 12 hours: 60% on downside moves and 40% on upside to better capture negative momentum bias observed in misses; cap adjustments at ±7%.\n4. Combine 24-hour momentum and 7-day trend multiplicatively when both exceed ±1.0% in the same direction, else revert to base rate to capture interaction effects without amplifying noise.\n5. Use freshest intraday reference price within 15 seconds; if older, reduce update magnitude by 70% to better reflect price staleness.\n6. For Kalshi and Polymarket questions, update probabilities only if expected move to fix covers at least 85% of threshold gap, reducing false confidence on marginal coverage.\n7. In final 15% of time to resolution, reduce update magnitude by 80% and apply stronger pull toward base rate to prevent overconfidence near close.\n8. Calibrate probabilities within 45%-55% range by default, allowing wider ranges (30%-70%) only for strong, consistent signals with clear momentum and threshold distance.\n9. Explain forecasts by referencing base rate, threshold proximity in expected moves, asymmetric momentum strength/direction, reference price freshness, expected move coverage, and time-to-resolution effects.","promoted":false,"createdAt":1792984101272,"ideasFrom":[],"rationale":"Increased volatility thresholds and expected move cutoffs reduce overconfident updates on normal fluctuations; asymmetric momentum weighting better accounts for downside risk bias; multiplicative combination captures interaction of trends; tighter reference freshness and stronger time decay mitigate","championBrier":0.21281874999999997,"challengerBrier":0.22265833333333332},{"n":48,"gen":117,"field":"tech","parent":104,"champion":false,"doctrine":"1. Use monthly-updated question-type-specific base rates refined by empirical resolution rates: hn100 ~20%, hn300 ~10%, hf_trending ~15%, wiki_attention ~10%; adjust upward only if early points exceed stronger thresholds (hn100: >15 points within 60 min; hn300: >40 points within 90 min) to reduce false positives.\n2. For hn100 and hn300, incorporate momentum using both absolute and relative growth: require recent 20-minute growth in points or comments >20% and points exceeding max(15, age_minutes/4) to boost forecasts, emphasizing sustained engagement.\n3. For hn300, front-page rank boosts apply only when combined with high absolute points (>100) and strong momentum (>25% recent growth); ranks 1-5 gain forecast lift, ranks >10 reduce forecast unless points exceed 130 with >30% momentum.\n4. Strengthen domain credibility boosts by requiring historical success rate >40%, consistent engagement, and points >40 with positive momentum; unknown or low-reputation domains default to base rate.\n5. Use comment-to-point ratio >0.25 as a positive signal only if points >40 and comments >20, preventing overweighting sparse comments.\n6. For stories older than 60 min (hn100) or 120 min (hn300), sharply discount forecast unless points and comments increased by at least 25% in last 20 minutes; plateauing or declines reduce forecast substantially.\n7. For hf_trending, emphasize rank stability, positive trending score changes, and robust download/like growth over past 48 hours; discount models with rank near cutoff or declining metrics.\n8. For wiki_attention, integrate day-over-day view change trends with a floor baseline forecast of 10%; boost forecast when article rank remains in top 10 and views show consistent growth or new spikes.\n9. Regularly recalibrate using segmented Brier score and reliability diagrams, targeting reduction of underforecasting for moderate early momentum and overforecasting of high raw scores without sustained growth; avoid reliance on raw thresholds without momentum confirmation.","promoted":false,"createdAt":1792969691696,"ideasFrom":[],"rationale":"Raised early point thresholds and momentum growth requirements reduce false positives; added wiki_attention-specific rules to capture view dynamics; strengthened domain and comment ratio criteria to better match resolved outcomes; refined age-based discounting and front-page rank boosts to balance o","championBrier":0.14372708333333328,"challengerBrier":0.15338541666666664},{"n":48,"gen":116,"field":"sports","parent":113,"champion":false,"doctrine":"1. Use updated league- and question-type specific base rates reflecting recent seasons, with soccer_draw baseline fixed at 38% to prevent overforecasting draws.\n2. Adjust weighting on team quality signals: increase recent form influence to 80% (last 5 games) and reduce full-season metrics to 20%, incorporating ELO, power rankings, and home advantage (NBA/NHL +4%, NFL +5%, MLB +3%, soccer/MLS +3%).\n3. For ML and mls_ml questions, treat draws as negative evidence for home wins; only increase home win probability by up to 3% when strong home form and weak away road form coincide; avoid minimum forecast floors for favorites below 0.50 to reduce underconfidence.\n4. For sports_spread and sports_runline, require at least 30 recent margin results to deviate from baseline; in sparse or early-season data, regress toward a 0.55 cover probability floor for favorites; incorporate margin variability and opponent strength.\n5. Sports_total forecasts integrate pace, offense/defense efficiency, and recent scoring volatility, with venue and season stage weighting; widen forecast range to 0.40–0.65 to better capture variability and reduce underestimation.\n6. Incorporate injury, roster changes, and rest impacts only with strong confirmations; emphasize back-to-back rest effects in NBA/NHL; adjust forecasts moderately for lead times under 12 hours.\n7. In low-information or early-season scenarios, constrain forecasts to 0.48–0.62 unless strong signals justify wider deviations; avoid extreme probabilities without compelling evidence.\n8. For soccer_draw and mls_draw, combine base draw rates with head-to-head and recent form, weighting recent form at 65%; set minimum draw floor at 0.38 to reduce overforecasting.\n9. Provide clear explanations emphasizing updated base rates, increased recent form weight, more cautious minimum forecast floors, and expanded total score ranges to improve calibration and reduce large misses.","promoted":false,"createdAt":1792937301782,"ideasFrom":[],"rationale":"Increased emphasis on recent form and stricter minimum data requirements for spreads corrected over- and under-confidence; adjusting minimum forecast floors and expanding total score ranges better captured outcome variability and reduced large errors.","championBrier":0.2433875000000001,"challengerBrier":0.24474583333333344},{"n":48,"gen":115,"field":"tech","parent":104,"champion":false,"doctrine":"1. Maintain monthly-updated question-type-specific base rates: hn100 ~20%, hn300 ~10%, hf_trending ~15%; increase base rates more aggressively when early points exceed 15 within first 90 minutes for hn100 and 40 within first 120 minutes for hn300, recognizing stronger early traction.\n2. Incorporate momentum by increasing forecasts if points exceed max(15, age_minutes/4) and recent 20-minute growth in points or comments is at least 20%, emphasizing sustained engagement and not just raw counts.\n3. For hn300, apply front-page rank boosts only if combined with strong momentum: ranks 1-5 increase forecast if points > 90 and >20% growth; ranks 6-10 if points > 120 and >25% growth; ranks >10 reduce forecasts unless points > 150 with very strong momentum.\n4. Strengthen domain credibility by requiring historical success rates >40% and consistent engagement; apply boosts only when points > 30 and momentum positive; treat unknown or low-reputation domains conservatively to avoid underforecasting credible new sources.\n5. Use comment-to-point ratio >0.25 as a positive momentum signal only if points > 40 and comments > 20; otherwise treat comments as neutral to avoid overweighting sparse or noisy early comments.\n6. For older stories (>60 min for hn100, >120 min for hn300), sharply discount forecasts unless points and comments increased by at least 25% in last 20 minutes; plateauing or declining engagement lowers forecasts substantially.\n7. For hf_trending, emphasize rank stability and positive trending score changes over last 48 hours, discounting models with declining downloads or likes; require download increase >10% over 24 hours for higher confidence.\n8. Regularly recalibrate with segmented Brier score analysis focusing on reducing underforecasting for moderate early momentum and overforecasting for high raw scores lacking sustained growth.\n9. Avoid relying solely on raw point thresholds; always integrate strong momentum signals from recent growth in points and comments plus domain credibility to distinguish genuine virality from early spikes and noise.","promoted":false,"createdAt":1792922891389,"ideasFrom":[],"rationale":"Increased early point thresholds and momentum growth percentages reduce underforecasting of stories with moderate early engagement, while stricter domain and comment ratio criteria reduce overforecasting of noisy or low-engagement cases, improving calibration across question types.","championBrier":0.1999229166666666,"challengerBrier":0.20228541666666663},{"n":48,"gen":114,"field":"markets","parent":108,"champion":true,"doctrine":"1. Use question-type base rates as priors but update only when signal magnitude exceeds 1.0× typical volatility to reduce overreaction to normal fluctuations.\n2. For price threshold questions, compute distance to threshold in expected moves (volatility × sqrt(time remaining)) and update probabilities only if threshold lies beyond ±0.5 expected moves, applying a calibrated sigmoid with reduced slope to avoid overconfidence on marginal gaps.\n3. For cryptocurrency momentum, weight recent price changes symmetrically over last 12 hours (50% positive, 50% negative) and cap adjustments at ±10% to avoid bias toward upside that caused misses.\n4. Combine 24-hour momentum and 7-day trend additively, without interaction amplification, applying updates only if both exceed ±1.0% in the same direction; otherwise revert to base rate.\n5. Use freshest intraday reference price within 30 seconds; if older, reduce update magnitude by 50% to better balance data freshness and availability.\n6. For Kalshi and Polymarket questions, update probabilities only if expected move to fix covers at least 75% of threshold gap, reducing false confidence on marginal coverage.\n7. In final 10% of time to resolution, reduce update magnitude by 90% and slightly pull probabilities toward base rate to prevent overconfidence near close.\n8. Calibrate probabilities within 40%-60% range by default, allowing wider ranges (25%-75%) only for strong, consistent signals with clear momentum and threshold distance.\n9. Explain forecasts including base rate, threshold proximity in expected moves, symmetric momentum strength/direction, reference price freshness, expected move coverage, and time-to-resolution effects.","promoted":true,"createdAt":1792919295687,"ideasFrom":[],"rationale":"The revision tightens update thresholds, reduces over-weighting of positive momentum, softens threshold distance sensitivity, and increases caution near resolution to better calibrate probabilities and reduce large misses observed with prior asymmetric and aggressive updates.","championBrier":0.1424,"challengerBrier":0.1294625},{"n":48,"gen":113,"field":"sports","parent":103,"champion":false,"doctrine":"1. Establish question-type and league-specific base rates from recent multi-season data, with soccer_draw baseline at 38%-40% to address persistent overestimation of draws.\n2. Combine team quality signals with a dynamic weighting scheme: 70% recent form (last 5 games) and 30% full-season metrics, incorporating ELO, power rankings, and home advantage (+4% NBA/NHL, +5% NFL, +3% MLB, +3% soccer/MLS).\n3. For ML questions in soccer/MLS and EPL, treat draws as negative evidence for home win and adjust home win probability upward by 2-5% only with strong home form and weak away road form; reduce overconfidence in low-data scenarios by limiting minimum forecast to 0.45 for favorites.\n4. For spread/runline bets, require minimum 25 recent games with margin data to deviate from baseline; in sparse data or early-season, regress toward baseline with a minimum cover probability floor of 0.54 to better capture favorites' margin wins.\n5. Total score forecasts to integrate pace, offense/defense efficiency, and last 5 games scoring volatility with venue and season stage weighting; widen forecast range to 0.43-0.62 to better capture observed variability.\n6. Incorporate injury, roster changes, and rest impacts only when confirmed; emphasize back-to-back rest effects in NBA/NHL and adjust moderately for lead times under 12 hours.\n7. In low-information or early-season contexts, constrain forecasts to 0.48-0.60 unless strong signals justify deviations; avoid forecasts below 0.48 for favorites unless compelling evidence.\n8. For soccer_draw and MLS_draw forecasts, combine base draw rates with head-to-head and recent form, weighting recent form at 60%; set minimum draw floor to 0.38 to reduce overforecasting.\n9. Provide clear explanations highlighting recalibrated probability floors, moderated draw forecasts, and expanded total ranges to reduce overconfidence and improve calibration.","promoted":true,"createdAt":1792890493281,"ideasFrom":[],"rationale":"Increased minimum cover floors and adjusted draw baselines reduce underprediction and overestimation errors; shifting to shorter recent form windows and tighter forecast floors prevents overly low probabilities on favorites, addressing key misses and improving overall calibration.","championBrier":0.26252708333333336,"challengerBrier":0.2571625000000001},{"n":48,"gen":112,"field":"tech","parent":104,"champion":false,"doctrine":"1. Use monthly-updated question-type-specific base rates: hn100 ~20%, hn300 ~10%, hf_trending ~15%, wiki_attention ~15%. Adjust base rates upward for hn100/h300 when early points exceed 15 within first 60 minutes for hn100 and 40 within first 90 minutes for hn300, reflecting stronger early momentum threshold.\n2. Incorporate momentum by increasing forecasts if points exceed max(15, age_minutes/4) and recent 20-minute growth in points or comments is at least 20%, emphasizing sustained growth rather than raw counts.\n3. For hn300, apply front-page rank boosts only if combined with sustained momentum: ranks 1-5 increase forecast if points > 100 and >20% growth; ranks 6-10 if points > 130 and >25% growth; ranks >10 reduce forecasts unless points > 160 with very strong momentum.\n4. Strengthen domain credibility boosts by requiring historical success rates >40% and consistent engagement, applying only when points > 35 and momentum positive; treat unknown or low-reputation domains conservatively.\n5. Use comment-to-point ratio >0.25 as a positive momentum signal only if points > 40 and comments > 20; otherwise treat comments as neutral to avoid overweighting sparse early comments.\n6. For older stories (>45 min for hn100, >90 min for hn300), sharply discount forecasts unless points and comments increased by at least 25% in last 20 minutes; plateauing or declining engagement lowers forecasts substantially.\n7. For hf_trending, emphasize rank stability and positive trending score changes over last 48 hours, discounting models with declining downloads or likes.\n8. For wiki_attention, incorporate both the magnitude of recent view spikes (at least 100% increase) and rank position (top 10), increasing forecast only if both criteria met.\n9. Regularly recalibrate with segmented Brier score analysis focusing on reducing underforecasting for moderate early momentum and overforecasting for high raw scores lacking sustained growth.\n10. Avoid relying solely on raw point thresholds; always integrate strong momentum signals from recent growth in points and comments to distinguish genuine virality from early spikes.","promoted":false,"createdAt":1792876105716,"ideasFrom":[],"rationale":"Raised early momentum thresholds and momentum growth percent to better capture genuine virality and reduce missed YES cases with moderate early points; increased domain and comment ratio requirements to improve signal reliability; added wiki_attention rules to better handle large view spikes; shorte","championBrier":0.11965833333333331,"challengerBrier":0.12349583333333335},{"n":48,"gen":111,"field":"markets","parent":108,"champion":false,"doctrine":"1. Use question-type base rates as priors but update only when signals exceed 1.0× typical volatility/noise to avoid overreacting to minor fluctuations.\n2. For price threshold questions, calculate distance to threshold in expected moves and adjust probabilities only if distance exceeds ±0.5 expected moves, using a calibrated sigmoid for smooth, meaningful updates.\n3. For cryptocurrency momentum, symmetrically weigh recent 24-hour price changes and 7-day trends without asymmetric bias but cap adjustments to ±10% to prevent overconfidence.\n4. Combine 24-hour and 7-day momentum additively; amplify updates only if both exceed ±1.0% in the same direction; otherwise, rely on base rate.\n5. Use freshest intraday reference price within 30 seconds; if older, reduce update magnitude by 90% to reflect data staleness.\n6. For Kalshi and Polymarket markets, require expected move coverage to be at least 75% of threshold gap before updating probabilities to prevent premature confidence.\n7. In the final 20% of time to resolution, linearly reduce update magnitude down to 50% to avoid overconfidence near close.\n8. Calibrate probabilities within 40%-60% by default; allow wider ranges (30%-70%) only for strong, consistent signals.\n9. Explain forecasts including base rate, threshold proximity in expected moves, symmetric momentum strength, reference price freshness, expected move coverage, and time-to-resolution effects.","promoted":false,"createdAt":1792872500785,"ideasFrom":[],"rationale":"The doctrine raises signal thresholds and expected move cutoffs to reduce false positives, removes asymmetric momentum weighting to avoid bias, tightens freshness requirements, and applies more conservative probability calibrations to improve overall forecast calibration and reduce large misses.","championBrier":0.1694791666666667,"challengerBrier":0.2134541666666667},{"n":48,"gen":110,"field":"sports","parent":103,"champion":false,"doctrine":"1. Maintain league- and question-type specific base rates, with soccer_draw baseline adjusted to 38%-40% to better reflect lower observed draw frequencies and reduce overforecasting.\n2. Increase weighting of recent form metrics to 70% (last 7 games) and reduce full-season to 30%, emphasizing momentum and correcting underestimation of favorites' performance.\n3. For spread/runline forecasts, require at least 15 recent games with margin data to deviate from baseline; otherwise, set minimum cover probability floor at 0.55 to better capture favorite strength and avoid underprediction.\n4. Integrate pace, offense/defense efficiencies, and last 7 games' scoring volatility for total score forecasts, but narrow forecast range to 0.48-0.58 to avoid excessive variance and improve calibration.\n5. For soccer_draw, combine base draw rates with head-to-head and recent form weighted 60% recent, 40% head-to-head, and impose a minimum draw floor of 0.38 in low-data contexts.\n6. Incorporate injury, roster, and rest impacts only when confirmed; emphasize NBA/NHL back-to-back rest effects and adjust for short lead times (<12 hours) with moderate penalties.\n7. For ML in soccer/MLS and UCL, treat draws as negative evidence for home win; home win probability increases by 1-2% only if strong home form and weak away road data exist; factor competition stage and fatigue.\n8. In low-information or early season, constrain forecasts within 0.52-0.60 for favorites and 0.40-0.48 for underdogs to reduce underestimation of favorites and prevent overconfidence.\n9. Provide clear explanations emphasizing stronger favorite floors, reduced draw forecasts, and narrower total score ranges to improve overall probability calibration and reduce large misses.","promoted":false,"createdAt":1792843692317,"ideasFrom":[],"rationale":"Increased emphasis on recent form and higher minimum probability floors for favorites correct underprediction of favorites winning or covering spreads, while lowering soccer draw baseline and narrowing total score forecast range reduce overforecasting and excessive variance, improving calibration ac","championBrier":0.24735416666666668,"challengerBrier":0.26591875000000004},{"n":48,"gen":109,"field":"tech","parent":104,"champion":false,"doctrine":"1. Start with monthly-updated base rates: hn100 ~20%, hn300 ~10%. Adjust upward if points exceed 8 within first 60 minutes for hn100, and 25 within first 90 minutes for hn300, lowering thresholds slightly to capture slower starters.\n2. Incorporate momentum by increasing forecasts when points exceed max(8, age_minutes/6) and recent 20-minute growth in points or comments is at least 10%, prioritizing sustained engagement over raw counts.\n3. For hn300, boost forecasts for front-page ranks 1-10 if points > 70 with >10% growth; reduce forecasts for ranks >15 unless points >120 with strong momentum, reflecting wider rank influence.\n4. Strengthen domain credibility boosts by including domains with historical success rates >30% and consistent engagement; apply only when points >20 and momentum is positive; treat unknown domains cautiously but allow for exceptions with strong momentum.\n5. Treat comment-to-point ratio >0.15 as a positive momentum signal if points >25 and comments >10; otherwise, weigh comments neutrally to avoid noise from sparse interactions.\n6. For older stories (>45 min for hn100, >90 min for hn300), discount forecasts unless points and comments grew by at least 15% in last 20 minutes; plateauing or declining engagement should reduce forecasts moderately.\n7. Avoid sole reliance on raw point thresholds; integrate momentum signals including both points and comments growth, but relax growth percentage thresholds to not miss slow-building stories.\n8. Regularly recalibrate with segmented Brier score analysis, focusing on reducing underforecasting of moderate momentum stories and overforecasting of high raw score but plateauing stories.\n9. For hf_trending, emphasize rank stability and positive trending score changes over 48 hours; discount if downloads or likes decline.","promoted":false,"createdAt":1792829288291,"ideasFrom":[],"rationale":"Lowered early point thresholds and growth rate requirements to better capture slow-building stories that were underforecasted, relaxed domain and rank strictness to avoid missing credible but less obvious signals, and adjusted momentum metrics to better balance sustained growth versus raw counts, im","championBrier":0.10739374999999997,"challengerBrier":0.13644166666666666},{"n":48,"gen":108,"field":"markets","parent":88,"champion":false,"doctrine":"1. Begin with question-type base rates as priors and update only when signal magnitude exceeds 0.75× typical volatility or noise to reduce overreaction to small fluctuations.\n2. For price threshold questions, compute distance to threshold in expected moves (volatility × sqrt(time remaining)) and adjust probabilities only if threshold lies beyond ±0.25 expected moves, using a calibrated sigmoid curve for smooth adjustments reflecting meaningful gaps.\n3. For cryptocurrency momentum, weigh recent price changes asymmetrically: place 70% weight on positive momentum over last 6 hours and 30% on negative to better capture upside potential, capping adjustments at ±15%.\n4. Combine 24-hour momentum and 7-day trend with an interaction term that amplifies updates only if both exceed ±0.5% in the same direction; otherwise revert to base rate.\n5. Use freshest intraday reference price within 1 minute; if older, reduce update magnitude by 75% to reflect stale data.\n6. For Kalshi and Polymarket questions, update probabilities only if expected move to fix covers at least 50% of threshold gap, preventing false confidence on marginal coverage.\n7. In final 10% of time to resolution, reduce update magnitude by 75% to avoid overconfidence near close.\n8. Calibrate probabilities within 30%-70% range by default, allowing wider ranges (20%-80%) only for strong, consistent signals.\n9. Explain forecasts including base rate, threshold proximity in expected moves, asymmetric momentum strength/direction, reference price freshness, expected move coverage, and time-to-resolution effects.","promoted":true,"createdAt":1792800501096,"ideasFrom":[],"rationale":"Tightened signal thresholds, asymmetric momentum weighting favoring upside, stricter staleness penalties, and more conservative probability calibration address overconfidence and large misses observed in prior forecasts.","championBrier":0.2099458333333333,"challengerBrier":0.17754999999999999},{"n":48,"gen":107,"field":"sports","parent":103,"champion":false,"doctrine":"1. Retain league- and question-type specific base rates, but increase minimum forecast floors for favorites in spread/runline and ML bets to 0.55, reflecting observed underprediction of favorites in low-data and early-season contexts.\n2. Adjust team quality weighting to 70% recent form (last 7 games) and 30% full season to better capture momentum, especially important for early season or sparse data situations; maintain use of ELO, power rankings, and home advantage modifiers but recalibrate home advantage to +5% NBA/NHL, +6% NFL, +4% MLB to better reflect actual home edge.\n3. For soccer_draw and MLS draws, lower baseline to 38%-40%, and combine base draw rate with head-to-head and recent form at 60%-40% respectively, reducing overweight on recent form to avoid overforecasting draws.\n4. In ML for soccer/MLS and UCL, treat draws strictly as negative for home win, but increase home win adjustment by up to 5% only when strong home form combines with poor away road form and early competition stage; otherwise, keep conservative lift.\n5. For sports_total, limit forecast range to 0.48-0.57 and emphasize pace and scoring volatility from last 10 games, with stronger weighting on offense/defense efficiencies; avoid overexpansion of forecast ranges to reduce overconfidence.\n6. Incorporate injury, roster, and rest effects only when verified; increase penalty for NBA/NHL back-to-back games and short rest (<12 hours), lowering favorite probability by 3-5% accordingly.\n7. In spread/runline, require at least 25 recent games with margin data to deviate from baseline; otherwise, regress towards baseline with floor at 0.55 for favorite cover probability.\n8. In low-data or early season, constrain forecasts within 0.53-0.65 for favorites and 0.35-0.47 for underdogs, preventing underestimation of strong favorites and reducing excessive conservatism.\n9. Provide clear explanations emphasizing higher probability floors for favorites, recalibrated home advantage, moderated draw forecasts, and narrowed total score ranges to reduce misses and improve calibration.","promoted":false,"createdAt":1792796903713,"ideasFrom":[],"rationale":"Increased minimum probability floors for favorites and stronger weighting on recent form improve underprediction of favorites; recalibrating home advantage and draw forecasts address systematic under/overestimation; narrowing total score ranges and adjusting injury/rest effects reduce overconfidence","championBrier":0.26102291666666666,"challengerBrier":0.25969791666666664},{"n":48,"gen":106,"field":"tech","parent":104,"champion":false,"doctrine":"1. Use monthly-updated question-type-specific base rates: hn100 ~20%, hn300 ~10%, wiki_attention ~15%. For hn100 and hn300, raise base rates modestly with early points thresholds adjusted to age: e.g., hn100 >10 points within first 45 minutes or hn300 >30 points within first 75 minutes, reflecting improved early signal timing.\n2. Integrate momentum by requiring both absolute point thresholds and recent growth: increase forecasts if points exceed max(10, age_minutes/5) and 15%+ growth in points or comments over last 20 minutes, emphasizing sustained momentum over raw spikes.\n3. For hn300, apply front-page rank boosts only if rank is ≤10 and momentum strong: ranks 1-5 if points >80 and >15% growth; ranks 6-10 if points >110 and >20% growth; otherwise, reduce forecasts for ranks >10 unless exceptional momentum (>130 points and >25% growth).\n4. Strengthen domain credibility boosts by requiring domains with historical success >35% and minimum 25 points plus positive momentum; treat unknown or low-reputation domains conservatively, avoiding false negatives from low early points.\n5. Use comment-to-point ratio >0.2 as a positive signal only if points >30 and comments >15, else treat comments as neutral.\n6. For older stories (>45 min hn100, >90 min hn300), sharply discount forecasts unless points and comments increased by ≥20% in last 20 minutes; plateauing or declining engagement lowers forecasts substantially.\n7. For wiki_attention, incorporate recent day-over-day view change percentage and rank stability; avoid high forecasts when recent spikes are extreme but unsustained (e.g., >500% increase followed by decline).\n8. Regularly recalibrate with segmented Brier score analysis focusing on reducing underforecasting for low-to-moderate early points and overforecasting for high-point stories lacking sustained growth.\n9. Avoid overreliance on raw point thresholds; require strong momentum signals combining recent growth in points and comments to distinguish genuine virality from early spikes.","promoted":false,"createdAt":1792782503741,"ideasFrom":[],"rationale":"Adjusted early points thresholds to earlier ages and combined absolute counts with momentum to better capture slow early growth; refined front-page rank boosts with stricter momentum conditions; improved handling of domain credibility to reduce misses on low-point but eventual hits; added caution on","championBrier":0.14654999999999999,"challengerBrier":0.14686041666666666},{"n":48,"gen":105,"field":"markets","parent":88,"champion":false,"doctrine":"1. Start with question-type base rates as priors and update only when signals exceed 1× typical volatility or noise to reduce premature confidence.\n2. For price threshold questions, measure distance to threshold in expected moves (volatility × sqrt(time remaining)) and adjust probabilities only if the threshold gap exceeds ±0.25 expected moves, applying a sigmoid curve to avoid overreaction to minor gaps.\n3. For cryptocurrency momentum, weight recent price changes asymmetrically over the last 6 hours, with upward momentum capped at +15% and downward momentum capped at -10% to better capture upside potential.\n4. For daily price change questions, combine 24-hour momentum and 7-day trend; amplify updates only when both strongly agree (>0.75% moves), otherwise revert to base rates.\n5. Use freshest intraday reference price within 1 minute; if older, reduce update magnitude by 75%, reflecting decreased signal reliability.\n6. For Kalshi and Polymarket questions, incorporate expected move to fix and threshold proximity jointly, adjusting probabilities only if expected move covers at least 1× the threshold gap.\n7. In the final 10% of time to resolution, reduce update magnitude by 75% to prevent overreacting to noise.\n8. Calibrate probabilities within a wider 10%-90% range, allowing stronger confidence when signals are robust; revert closer to base rates when signals conflict or are weak.\n9. Explain forecasts including: base rate, threshold proximity in expected moves, asymmetric momentum strength/direction (last 6h & 7d), reference price freshness, expected move coverage, and time-to-resolution effects.","promoted":false,"createdAt":1792746506681,"ideasFrom":[],"rationale":"Increased volatility thresholds and expected move gaps reduce false confidence in weak signals; asymmetric momentum caps better capture upside; stricter freshness and time decay improve signal reliability; wider probability calibration allows stronger confidence when justified.","championBrier":0.2678749999999999,"challengerBrier":0.28789791666666664},{"n":48,"gen":104,"field":"tech","parent":93,"champion":false,"doctrine":"1. Use monthly-updated question-type-specific base rates: hn100 ~20%, hn300 ~10%, hf_trending ~15%. Adjust base rates upward when early points exceed 10 within first 60 minutes for hn100, and 30 within first 90 minutes for hn300, reflecting stronger early signals.\n2. Incorporate momentum by increasing forecasts if points exceed max(10, age_minutes/5) and recent 20-minute growth in points or comments is at least 15%, emphasizing sustained growth rather than raw counts.\n3. For hn300, apply front-page rank boosts only if combined with sustained momentum: ranks 1-5 increase forecast if points > 80 and >15% growth; ranks 6-10 if points > 110 and >20% growth; ranks >10 reduce forecasts unless points > 130 with very strong momentum.\n4. Strengthen domain credibility boosts by requiring historical success rates >35% and consistent engagement, applying only when points > 25 and momentum positive; treat unknown or low-reputation domains conservatively.\n5. Use comment-to-point ratio >0.2 as a positive momentum signal only if points > 30 and comments > 15, otherwise treat comments as neutral to avoid overweighting sparse early comments.\n6. For older stories (>60 min for hn100, >120 min for hn300), sharply discount forecasts unless points and comments increased by at least 20% in last 20 minutes; plateauing or declining engagement lowers forecasts substantially.\n7. For hf_trending, emphasize rank stability and positive trending score changes over last 48 hours, discounting models with declining downloads or likes.\n8. Regularly recalibrate with segmented Brier score analysis focusing on reducing underforecasting for moderate early momentum and overforecasting for high raw scores lacking sustained growth.\n9. Avoid relying solely on raw point thresholds; always integrate strong momentum signals from recent growth in points and comments to distinguish genuine virality from early spikes.","promoted":true,"createdAt":1792735697768,"ideasFrom":[],"rationale":"Increased emphasis on stronger early absolute and relative momentum, higher thresholds for domain credibility and comment signals, and more conservative treatment of high-point but plateauing stories address underforecasting of some true positives and overforecasting of false positives seen under th","championBrier":0.15555833333333333,"challengerBrier":0.1428583333333333},{"n":48,"gen":103,"field":"sports","parent":91,"champion":false,"doctrine":"1. Maintain league- and question-type specific base rates, adjusting soccer_draw baseline to 40%-42% (down from 45%) to reduce overestimation of draws observed in recent data.\n2. Weight team quality metrics dynamically: 60% recent (last 7 games) and 40% full-season, increasing responsiveness to recent form while retaining season context; continue incorporating ELO, power rankings, and home advantage modifiers (+4% NBA/NHL, +5% NFL, +3% MLB).\n3. For spread/runline, require minimum 20 recent games with margin data to deviate from baseline; in sparse data or early-season contexts, regress towards baseline with a minimum cover probability floor of 0.52 (down from 0.55) to reduce underprediction of favorites.\n4. Total score forecasts to integrate pace, offense/defense efficiencies, and last 7 games' scoring volatility, with venue and season stage weighting; expand forecast range slightly to 0.45-0.60 to capture higher scoring variability.\n5. For soccer/MLS draws, combine base draw rates with head-to-head and recent form, weighting recent form at 70%; set minimum draw floor to 0.40 in low-data contexts to avoid systematic overforecasting.\n6. Incorporate injury, roster, and rest impacts only when confirmed; emphasize NBA/NHL back-to-back rest effects and adjust moderately for short lead times (<12 hours).\n7. For ML in soccer/MLS and UCL, treat draws as negative evidence for home win; home win probability increases by 2-3% only if strong home form and weak away road data exist; factor competition stage and fatigue.\n8. In low-information or early season, constrain forecasts within 0.50-0.58 unless strong signals justify broader ranges; avoid forecasts below 0.50 for favorites unless robust evidence.\n9. Provide clear explanations emphasizing more calibrated probability floors, moderated draw forecasts, and expanded total score ranges to better reflect observed outcomes and reduce overconfidence.","promoted":true,"createdAt":1792724905482,"ideasFrom":[],"rationale":"Reduced soccer_draw baseline and floors to correct overestimation of draws; increased recent form weighting to improve responsiveness; lowered minimum cover floor and allowed wider total score forecast ranges to better capture reality; refined ML adjustments to treat draws as negative evidence, impr","championBrier":0.2410916666666667,"challengerBrier":0.23415625000000004},{"n":48,"gen":102,"field":"markets","parent":88,"champion":false,"doctrine":"1. Start with question-type base rates as priors; update only when signals exceed 0.7× typical volatility or noise to reduce overreaction to weak signals.\n2. For price threshold questions, measure threshold distance in expected moves (volatility × sqrt(time remaining)); update probabilities only if threshold lies beyond ±0.2 expected moves to avoid false confidence near thresholds.\n3. For cryptocurrency momentum, weight recent price changes over the last 12 hours asymmetrically, emphasizing downside momentum more to better capture negative trends, capping adjustments at ±15%.\n4. Combine 24-hour momentum and 7-day trend for daily price change questions; amplify updates only when both strongly agree (>0.7% moves) and otherwise revert fully to base rate.\n5. Use freshest intraday reference price within 2 minutes; if older, reduce update magnitude by 70% to discount stale data.\n6. For Kalshi and Polymarket questions, require expected move to fix and threshold proximity jointly exceed threshold gap by at least 0.15 expected moves before adjusting probabilities.\n7. In the final 15% of time to resolution, reduce update magnitude by 60% to limit overfitting to last-minute noise.\n8. Calibrate probabilities within 25%-75% range under weak or conflicting signals; allow wider ranges (10%-90%) only when signals are unambiguous.\n9. Explain forecasts including: base rate, threshold proximity in expected moves, momentum strength/direction (last 12h & 7d), reference price freshness, expected move coverage, and time-to-resolution effects.","promoted":false,"createdAt":1792699710375,"ideasFrom":[],"rationale":"Increased volatility thresholds and time windows, stronger filtering of stale data, and more conservative probability calibration address overconfidence and bias toward downside observed in worst misses.","championBrier":0.30414583333333345,"challengerBrier":0.3025083333333333},{"n":48,"gen":101,"field":"tech","parent":93,"champion":false,"doctrine":"1. Use monthly-updated question-type-specific base rates: hn100 ~20%, hn300 ~10%, hf_trending ~40%, wiki_attention ~15%, reflecting observed frequencies.\n2. For hn100 and hn300, raise base rates when points exceed 7 (hn100) or 25 (hn300) within the first 90 or 120 minutes respectively, but avoid sharp increases after 90 minutes without strong momentum.\n3. Incorporate absolute point thresholds AND relative momentum: increase forecasts if points exceed max(8, age_minutes/6) and recent 20-minute growth in points or comments is at least 10%, to better capture genuine virality versus static early spikes.\n4. For hn300, front-page rank boosts apply only if positive momentum accompanies high points: ranks 1-5 get boosts if points >75 and momentum >10%; ranks 6-10 if points >100 and momentum >15%; ranks >10 require points >120 and momentum >20%, else downgrade forecasts.\n5. Apply domain credibility boosts only for domains with >30% historical success and minimum points >20 plus momentum; otherwise treat domain as neutral.\n6. Use comment-to-point ratio >0.15 as a positive signal only if points >25 AND comments >10 AND recent comment growth >5%, else treat comments as neutral.\n7. For older stories (>60 mins hn100, >120 mins hn300), sharply discount forecasts unless points and comments grew together by at least 15% and 10% respectively in last 20 minutes; plateauing or declining engagement lowers forecasts.\n8. For hf_trending, incorporate age decay: reduce forecasts for models older than 10 days even with moderate engagement; require top 5 rank and strong likes/download momentum to maintain high forecasts.\n9. For wiki_attention, incorporate multi-day view trends: increase forecasts only if views yesterday exceeded views two days ago by at least 10%, and the article ranked in top 10 yesterday.\n10. Regularly recalibrate with segmented Brier scores by question type, story age, engagement, and domain reputation, focusing on reducing underforecasting of moderate momentum cases and overforecasting of early spikes with weak growth.","promoted":false,"createdAt":1792688899582,"ideasFrom":[],"rationale":"Added momentum thresholds as percentage growth to better distinguish sustained engagement from static early spikes, introduced age decay for trending models, incorporated multi-day trends for wiki views, and tightened domain and rank-based boosts to reduce overforecasting and improve calibration on ","championBrier":0.1504666666666667,"challengerBrier":0.15587916666666665},{"n":48,"gen":100,"field":"sports","parent":91,"champion":false,"doctrine":"1. Maintain updated league- and question-type specific base rates, but recalibrate soccer_draw baseline downward to 40% to avoid underestimating non-draw outcomes, while retaining a minimum floor of 0.35 in low-data contexts.\n2. Adjust team quality metrics weighting to 60% recent (last 7 games) and 40% full-season data to better capture current form, while preserving ELO and power rankings with refined home advantage modifiers (+3% NBA, +3% NHL, +4% NFL, +2% MLB).\n3. For spread/runline questions, require a minimum of 25 recent games with margin data to deviate from baseline; otherwise regress strongly toward league baseline, with a minimum favorite cover floor at 0.53 early season or sparse data contexts to reduce overconfidence.\n4. For total score forecasts, integrate pace, offense/defense efficiencies, and last 7 games' scoring volatility, weighting venue and season stage; narrow forecast extremes to within 0.45 to 0.57 to better calibrate probabilities and reduce underestimation.\n5. For soccer/MLS draws, combine base draw rates with head-to-head and recent draw tendencies, weighting recent form at 70%; set minimum draw floor to 0.40 in low-data or moderate contexts.\n6. Incorporate injury, roster, and rest impacts only when confirmed lineup changes exist; emphasize NBA/NHL back-to-back rest effects; adjust moderately for short lead times (<12 hours).\n7. In low-information or early-season situations, constrain forecasts within 0.50-0.57 unless multiple strong signals justify wider ranges; avoid forecasts below 0.50 for favorites in spread/runline questions unless robust data supports.\n8. For ML forecasts in soccer/MLS and similar, treat draws as neutral evidence; increase home win probabilities by 2-3% only when home form is strong and away team road data is limited; factor competition stage and fatigue.\n9. Provide clear explanations emphasizing stronger regression toward baselines with sparse data, moderated extremes in totals, and slightly lower draw floors in soccer to improve calibration and reduce overconfidence in low-probability forecasts.","promoted":false,"createdAt":1792663696246,"ideasFrom":[],"rationale":"Reduced soccer draw baseline and floors to prevent underforecasting wins; increased weight on recent form to better capture current team strength; tightened forecast extremes and adjusted minimum floors to reduce overconfidence and improve calibration, especially in low-data or early-season contexts","championBrier":0.22735833333333344,"challengerBrier":0.22918333333333343},{"n":48,"gen":99,"field":"tech","parent":93,"champion":false,"doctrine":"1. Use monthly-updated, question-type-specific base rates: hn100 ~20%, hn300 ~10%. Increase base rates if points exceed 7 within first 90 minutes for hn100, and if points exceed 25 within first 120 minutes for hn300, reflecting early momentum.\n2. For both hn100 and hn300, increase forecasts when points exceed max(8, age_minutes/6) combined with positive recent momentum (growth in points and/or comments over last 20 minutes), capturing moderate early engagement.\n3. Integrate domain credibility more granularly: apply boosts for domains with sustained >30% success rate and consistent engagement; for less credible domains, require points >20 and positive momentum plus comment growth >10% in last 20 minutes before boosting.\n4. Refine momentum signals: require simultaneous positive growth in both points and comments over last 20 minutes to confirm virality; plateauing or declining engagement reduces forecasts sharply, especially after 60 mins for hn100 and 120 mins for hn300.\n5. Adjust front-page rank boosts for hn300 with stricter thresholds: ranks 1-5 require points >80 and strong momentum; ranks 6-10 require points >110 and strong momentum; ranks >10 reduce unless points >130 with strong momentum.\n6. Use comment-to-point ratio >0.15 as a positive signal only if points >30 and comments >15; otherwise, treat comments as neutral to avoid overweighting sparse or early comments.\n7. For older stories (>60 mins hn100, >120 mins hn300), sharply discount forecasts unless points and comments each grew by at least 15% in last 20 minutes; plateau or decline strongly lowers forecasts.\n8. Regularly recalibrate via segmented Brier score analysis focusing on reducing underforecasting of moderate momentum cases and overforecasting of high raw scores without sustained growth.\n9. Avoid relying solely on raw point thresholds; always integrate combined momentum signals from recent growth in both points and comments to distinguish genuine virality from early spikes.","promoted":false,"createdAt":1792642094985,"ideasFrom":[],"rationale":"Adjusted domain credibility and momentum signals to require simultaneous growth in points and comments, raised thresholds for front-page rank boosts, and emphasized stronger discounting of plateauing older stories, addressing underforecasting of moderate momentum and overforecasting of stale high-sc","championBrier":0.15738125,"challengerBrier":0.1561895833333333},{"n":48,"gen":98,"field":"markets","parent":88,"champion":false,"doctrine":"1. Start with question-type base rates as priors; update only when signals exceed 0.7× typical volatility to reduce overreaction to noise.\n2. For price threshold questions, compute distance to threshold in expected moves (volatility × sqrt(time remaining)); adjust probabilities only if threshold lies beyond ±0.15 expected moves, using a sigmoid curve for smoother, less extreme updates.\n3. For cryptocurrency momentum, weight recent price changes over last 12 hours with decay favoring last 3 hours, allowing asymmetric caps of +15% and -10% to better capture upside momentum.\n4. Combine 24-hour momentum and 7-day trend for daily price change questions; amplify updates only when both align strongly (>0.7% moves), else revert to base rate to avoid conflict-driven errors.\n5. Use freshest intraday reference price within 2 minutes; if older, reduce update magnitude by 70% to emphasize timely data.\n6. For Kalshi and Polymarket questions, incorporate expected move to fix and threshold proximity jointly; require expected move to cover at least 1.0× threshold gap before adjusting probabilities to avoid false confidence.\n7. In final 10% of time to resolution, reduce update magnitude by 60% to prevent overfitting late noise.\n8. Calibrate probabilities within [25%,75%] when signals are moderate; allow wider range (10%-90%) only for very strong signals, ensuring better calibration.\n9. Explain forecasts with: base rate, threshold proximity in expected moves, momentum strength/direction (last 3h, 12h, 7d), reference price freshness, expected move coverage, and time-to-resolution effects.","promoted":false,"createdAt":1792624110725,"ideasFrom":[],"rationale":"Raised signal thresholds and expected move gaps reduce overconfidence; asymmetric momentum caps capture upside better; shorter freshness window and stronger late-time damping mitigate stale data and noise; tighter probability calibration improves overall forecast reliability.","championBrier":0.27892708333333327,"challengerBrier":0.2914125},{"n":48,"gen":97,"field":"sports","parent":91,"champion":false,"doctrine":"1. Maintain league- and question-type specific base rates with dynamic calibration; for soccer_draw, use a flexible draw baseline between 40%-45% based on recent sample size and specific leagues to avoid overestimating draws.\n2. Weight team quality metrics as 60% recent form (last 7 games) and 40% full-season data to better capture current strength, especially early season; preserve ELO, power rankings, and home advantage modifiers (+4% NBA/NHL, +5% NFL, +3% MLB).\n3. For spread/runline questions, require a minimum of 25 recent games with margin data to deviate confidently from baseline; otherwise regress toward baseline with a conservative minimum favorite cover floor at 0.57 in sparse data or early season.\n4. For total score forecasts, incorporate pace, offense/defense efficiencies, and recent scoring volatility, but widen forecast range to 0.45-0.60 to better capture scoring variability and avoid underestimation.\n5. For soccer_draw, integrate head-to-head, recent form (weighted at 70%), and competition context; set minimum draw floor at 0.40 in low-data contexts.\n6. Incorporate injury, roster, and rest effects only when confirmed; emphasize NBA/NHL back-to-back and short rest impacts; discount rest effects if lead time is >24 hours.\n7. For ML questions in soccer and similar, treat draws as negative evidence for home win; adjust home win probabilities only if home form is strong and away road form is weak, limiting boosts to +2-3%.\n8. In low-information or early-season contexts, constrain forecasts within 0.54-0.62 for favorites unless robust multi-factor signals justify greater deviation.\n9. Provide explicit calibration checks focusing on avoiding overly low favorite probabilities in spread/runline and ML questions, and avoid narrow extremes in totals forecasts to reduce large misses.","promoted":false,"createdAt":1792616904245,"ideasFrom":[],"rationale":"Increased weighting on recent form and stronger regression toward baseline for spread/runline and ML forecasts prevent underestimation of favorites; expanded total forecast ranges better capture scoring variability; calibrated draw baselines and moderated home win boosts reduce overconfidence in soc","championBrier":0.25344375,"challengerBrier":0.2509020833333333},{"n":48,"gen":96,"field":"tech","parent":93,"champion":false,"doctrine":"1. Use monthly-updated question-type-specific base rates: hn100 ~20%, hn300 ~10%, wiki_attention ~15%, hf_trending ~40%. For hn100 and hn300, increase base rate when early points exceed 7 within first 90 minutes (hn100) or 25 within first 120 minutes (hn300), reflecting stronger early momentum.\n2. For hn100 and hn300, raise forecasts if points exceed max(8, age_minutes/6) combined with positive recent momentum defined as at least 10% growth in points or comments over the last 20 minutes, to better capture moderate early engagement while avoiding false positives from small absolute changes.\n3. For hn300, adjust front-page rank boosts: ranks 1-5 increase forecasts if points > 75 and positive momentum; ranks 6-10 increase if points > 100 and strong momentum; ranks >10 reduce forecasts unless points > 120 with strong momentum sustained.\n4. Apply domain credibility boosts only for domains with historical >30% success rate and consistent sustained engagement; for lesser-known domains, require points > 20 and positive momentum over last 30 minutes.\n5. Use comment-to-point ratio >0.15 as a positive signal only if points >25 and comments >15 to ensure meaningful discussion; otherwise treat comments as neutral to avoid overweighting sparse or early comments.\n6. For older stories (>60 mins for hn100, >120 mins for hn300), sharply discount forecasts unless points grew by at least 15% and comments by at least 10% in last 20 minutes; plateauing or declining engagement strongly lowers forecasts.\n7. For wiki_attention, incorporate recent view count velocity and acceleration (percent increase over last two days) rather than absolute jumps alone, to better detect fading interest despite high absolute views.\n8. For hf_trending, combine rank, likes, downloads, trending score, and score gap to 11th with recency (age_days), discounting models older than 10 days unless downloads and likes are growing over last 3 days.\n9. Regularly recalibrate with segmented Brier score analysis by question type, story age, engagement, domain reputation, and momentum thresholds, focusing on reducing underforecasting of moderate sustained growth and overforecasting of early spikes without momentum.\n10. Do not rely solely on raw point or view thresholds; always integrate momentum signals from recent growth in points, comments, or views to distinguish genuine virality from ephemeral spikes.","promoted":false,"createdAt":1792595311642,"ideasFrom":[],"rationale":"Added momentum thresholds based on percent growth to better capture true engagement, introduced wiki_attention view velocity/acceleration signals, refined hf_trending recency and growth criteria, raised comment count thresholds for meaningful signal, and improved domain boost criteria to reduce miss","championBrier":0.20687499999999995,"challengerBrier":0.21079791666666656}]}